Baylor Bears (6-4 SU, 2-8 ATS) vs. Texas Tech (4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time:Friday, November 25, 2016 – 6:00 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BU -5.5/TT +5.5
Over/Under Total: 84.5
The Baylor Bears (6-4) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-7) will revisit their cross-state rivalry on Friday, November 25th and provide us with another chapter of a storied feud. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN with a scheduled kick-off time of 6:00 PM ET. The last meeting between both teams in 2015 resulted in Baylor cruising to a 63-35 win. The Bears have won their last five outings against the Red Raiders in this age-old Big 12 rivalry.
Eventhough the losing streak has now increased to four, Baylor is no longer the laughing stock of the Big 12 litter. Nevertheless losses appear to be evermore more disparaging week after week as the Bears were owned at home last week by a score of 42-21 against Kansas State. This is a team that was also soundly defeated by Oklahoma, Texas and by TCU in Fort Worth where the Bears gave up 62 points. The Baylor program as a whole has looked in disarray in the past month and the train has finally gone off the tracks. What is frightening most of all is that Baylor is the orchestrator of an offense that is extraordinarily potent and yet they fail to produce as of late Baylor’s defense has been an apparition at this point in the season. This is rather disconcerting considering Baylor has consistently produced one of the most prolific and consistent offenses in America in the past five years which has been their staple dish.
The same has always been true for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Additionally, the amount of points that may be scored in this contest is too difficult to gauge. In summation, one outfit must win this game as both teams have lost their last seven. The Bears have dropped four and Tech has dropped three. Nevertheless, the Bears have a bit of a competitive edge as they enter as they have won the last five against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech was embarrassed last week against Iowa State as the Cyclones would hang 66 on the Red Raiders Swiss cheese defense in Ames while Texas Tech only scored 10 points. The Red Raiders and the Bears can easily combine for over 100 points and 1,000 yards of offense as the defense will undoubtedly be left at home. If a shootout is impending then as we have championed before, the academic move is to take the points. In this case we are getting close to a touchdown which further reinforces this idiom.
The public has been enamored with the Bears as in some markets up to three points were given to the Red Raiders in addition due to heavy public steam on the Bears. The consensus is likely acting off the Iowa State result exclusively, casting aside the fact of how Baylor has performed as of late. Let us remind takers here that Texas Tech beat TCU outright and they also managed to come within striking distance against the two teams battling it out for the conference, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. In addition we have seen the public act on the Under resulting in a drop in this market by a full point. There is no prognostication suitable for the score in this contest, it can go in any direction. Rivalry games are typically difficult to forecast. When you toss in a probable shootout between two teams on a losing streak with no defense and this one really is a toss-up in every sense of the word. While it is tough to play on Texas Tech given the defense as a whole, we have to stay clear of Baylor as they not only lost but lost nastily in their four losses. The Red Raiders could easily be a winning team had Texas Tech held on to their leads and played a semblance of defense. There is still an outside chance here that Texas Tech can make a bowl game if they get a win here on Friday. This is in itself is an incentive and in front of a home crowd this team will like to end the skid against Baylor as a feather in their cap.
KEITH’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TEXAS TECH +5.5
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