Boise State Broncos (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. New Mexico Lobos (2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Friday, October 7, 2016 at 9PM EST
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
TV: CBS Sports Network
by Scott, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BSU -17/UNM +17
Over/Under Total: 60.5
The Boise State Broncos come to Albuquerque to face the New Mexico Lobos on Friday night in Mountain West Conference action. New Mexico won a slugfest on Saturday with a 48-41 win over San Jose State. The win moved them to 2-2 on the season and 1-0 in conference. Boise State pushed their record to 4-0 on Saturday with a 21-10 win over Utah State. The can now turn their attention on a Lobos bunch that upset them last season.
For those who remember, itís hard to forget last seasonís matchup between these two teams. New Mexico was a staggering 31-point underdog. Using a monstrous run-game, the Lobos emerged 7-point winners, making a mockery of the point spread in the process. Still, Boise State remembers that and will be gunning hard to avoid a repeat. Unbeaten and looking for a big year, last year will likely serve to make them more on-point for this game than they otherwise may have been.
New Mexico seemed to make it harder than they needed to on Saturday. They carried a 41-20 lead into the final quarter, before two straight SJSU touchdowns narrowed the lead. At the end of the day, New Mexico emerged with the win and when youíre the Lobos, thatís what counts. On Saturday, the Lobos went with Lamar Jordan at QB. He was 4-for-8 for 45 yards and a pick. The Lobos run the heck out the ball and they did so on Saturday, with 446 yards on the ground. Teriyon Gipson (questionable) led the way with 156 yards and a score. Tyrone Owens was also over 100 with a score, while Richard McQuarley added 83 yards on the ground with three scores. He has seven touchdowns in just 4 games. They are second in the country in rushing. They might be imbalanced, but you have to watch out for teams like the Lobos that do one thing really well.
The Lobos, at the end of the day, are on the way up. In Bob Davieís 5th year, they have gone from a laughingstock to a bowl team. They were 1-11 the year before Davie showed up. Gradually, they climbed their way up and theyíre now a team that can make things happen, as they showed last season with some big wins, including one over the team theyíre playing this week. Lending even more optimism is a defense that should come around, with it being Davieís best unit yet. Through 4 games, the results have been mixed.
Against the tough Utah State Aggies, Boise St. was able to emerge with a 21-10 win. It was good in a way to see them be able to win a grinding sort of game where resourcefulness is a greater trait than explosiveness. On one hand, theyíre once again ranked and on the way up, but they havenít covered the spread in their last three games. Still, with wins over Washington State and Oregon State, theyíve beaten two Pac-12 teams and after winning their conference opener against Utah State on Saturday, they now turn their attention to the meat of their MWC schedule.
The Broncos werenít as explosive offensively on Saturday against the resolute Aggies. Brett Rypien threw a pair of TD passes, with Cedrick Wilson adding another. The key to this offense, other than Rypien, is running back Jeremy McNichols, who provided a workhorse RB performance with 132 yards on 30 carries, while adding 6 receptions for 73 yards and a score. He caught a 61-yard TD reception. Thomas Sperbeck added 6 catches and a score, with Wilson also catching a touchdown, in addition to throwing one. Itís a balanced offense that can do a lot of damage, though they really didnít on Saturday.
It should be interesting to see how the Boise State defense matches up with the run-heavy Lobos offense. So far this season, opponents are getting very little on the ground against the Broncos. And the teams theyíve played have had success running the ball in other spots. And for a line that had a lot of replacing to do, thatís good news. But the pass-defense hasnít been looking too good, which might not hurt them too much in this game.
Weíll see if the Broncos defense can withstand the New Mexico run-game and the game-planning of Bob Davie, who seemed to have all the right answers last season, when they scored one of the biggest upsets of the season in terms of points. Look for Davieís acumen to again play a role this season. And just as New Mexico was facing a tough road game last season, so are the Broncos this week coming into the bog of University Stadium. Itís a tricky road spot for Boise.
I see a similar game to the one Boise had with Utah State this past week, more of a grind than some might be forecasting. Boise beat Utah State with the Aggies playing without their best running back. The more robust Lobos ground-game will make an impact, while we perhaps see their defense play well across all phases, as the Lobos notch the big cover at home.
Scott's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Iím betting on the New Mexico Lobos plus 17 points.
Bet on games LIVE-IN-PROGRESS at a bookie where credit cards work for deposits and where you will get a FAT 100% bonus up to $1000 FREE! --> MyBookie!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!