No. 9 Boise State Broncos -6, 63 O/U (10-0) 5-3-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U at Nevada Wolf Pack +6, 63 O/U (5-4) 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U Saturday, November 22 Mackay Stadium (29,993) Reno, Nevada 4:00 p.m. EST
By Wilson of Predictem.com
The No. 9 Boise State Broncos head to the biggest little city in the world this weekend to take on the Wolf Pack of Nevada in Reno. Boise State won this game last year in a shoot-out 69-67! Wow, talk about taking the over. There is a lot riding on this contest for the Broncos as they look to crack the BCS line-up for the second time in the last three years. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack will try to become bowl eligible by earning a 6th win.
Nevada took care of business last week in a 41-17 win over San Jose State. Wolf Pack QB Colin Kaepernick was 15-of-31 for 192 yards and 1 touchdown. He also got it done on the ground by rushing for 147 yards on 16 carries and 2 more TDs. Running back Vai Tua added 18 carries for 125 yards and 1 TD as well. The Wolf Pack is averaging 38.2 points per game with an emphasis on the ground as they rack up more than 200 yards rushing during most contests.
For a defense that usually allows 30.9 points per game to their opponents, the Wolf Pack held San Jose State to just 17 points, and stopped the run by holding the Spartans to -23 yards rushing.
Boise State beat the Idaho Vandals last week 45-10. The Broncos were once again very dominant, but this time they showed what they can do on the ground as opposed to the usual passing attack of QB Kellen Moore.
Boise State running back Jeremy Avery had a career day as he carried the ball 11 times for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bronco’s Ian Johnson also scored his 53rd rushing touchdown, which ties him with LaDainian Tomlinson for second in WAC history and just three behind the all-time leader in Marshall Faulk. QB Kellen Moore was 23-of-31 for 210 yards in between giving the ball to a running back. This may be just what the Broncos needed to do- to finish the regular season strong by finding a solid ground game thus making them an even more dangerous team.
The Broncos will be apprehensive of the Wolf Pack especially after last year’s fiasco, but with the new-found running game and the always elusive, playmaking Moore behind center, this game should be a “W” for Boise State.
Another factor to consider is the defense. Boise State is ranked as one of the toughest defenses in the country as they only allow 10.3 points per game to their opponents. On the other side, the Wolf Pack is giving up more than 30 points each game. Although Nevada was impressive against the run last week- we must acknowledge that Boise State is not in the same “league” as San Jose State as far as overall athletic ability and talent level. I don’t see Nevada slowing down the Broncos on the ground or through the air.
The Broncos continue to seek the ultimate college football status of playing in a BCS bowl game. They have all the weapons they need on offense and their defense is solid.
Wilson’s Pick: I think the Wolf Pack is catching some generosity from the bookies with this point spread. I know they (Nevada) are at home, but the Broncos will cover the points and get it done on the road, 42-28. Luck to ya.
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