BYU Cougars (1-0 SU 0-1 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (1-0 SU 1-0 ATS) Week 2 NCAA Football, Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, AUSTIN, TX, 7 PM ET Saturday September 11, 2011 on ESPN2/ESPN3
by Jason Green, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Brigham Young +7/TEX -7
Texas is coming off a disastrous 5-7 season in 2010, but they got off to a good start in their first game winning a blowout. BYU came away with a solid away win in their opening game scoring 2 TD in the 4th quarter, but can they stop the Longhorns in their house this Saturday?
In their opening games Texas killed Rice 34-9 and BYU narrowly beat Mississippi 14-13.
Texas QB Garrett Gilbert had a lot of pressure on him coming into this season, as he had a rough 2010 campaign throwing only 10 TD while having 17 INT. He led the Longhorns to the win on Saturday after a slow start and finished 13/23 with 239 yards with 1 TD and, more importantly, no picks.
Gilbert will be facing a BYU secondary that was statistically solid last season, but did not play well against teams with a solid aerial attack. Still, in the Ole Miss win they held the Rebels to 144 passing yards and last season they stepped up at the end of the year with 13 picks in their last 5 games. Gilbert will be pressured by the solid Cougars' pass rush, but he will be careful with the ball and not get killed by the INT.
Where the Longhorns shined on offense in their win over Rice was rushing the ball gaining 229 yards on the ground. Malcolm Brown and D.J. Monroe combined to rush for 127 yards and each averaged over 5.4 yards per carry. The Cougars held Ole Miss to only 64 rushing yards, but facing the solid Texas RB's they will not keep the Longhorns from having a big game on the ground. That will be key, as the Longhorns will control the clock.
The Texas offense had too many penalties and did not protect Gilbert very well in the game against Rice, but that will change in this game.
BYU QB Jake Heaps had a decent game against Ole Miss passing for 225 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, but he only averaged 5.9 yards per completion. The Cougars do have a solid WR corps, but while the Texas secondary has some young players, especially at the DB position, but they are very athletic, held Rice to only 94 passing yards, and they will keep Heaps from making the big play down the field.
The big question is can the Longhorns stop the run? BYU only had 91 rushing yards in the win over Ole Miss, but the Rebels have a solid run defense. Texas allowed Rice to rush for 130 yards with both of their RB's averaging over 6 yards per carry. Texas has the size and speed up front and while they will not totally stuff the run BYU RB JJ Di Luigi will not have a huge game.
In some betting trends for this big non-conference game Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win, and they have an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games.
BYU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and has an Under record of 4-0 in their last road games as an underdog.
Texas was only 3-9 ATS in 2010 in a season every UT fan would like to forget, but the Longhorns are ready to get back to national prominence and they will get closer to that this Saturday playing great at home.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Gilbert will come in and have a big game in this match up, as I think he comes off last week's win with no picks with a lot of confidence. The Texas D is full of young and talented players and they will show that in this game keeping BYU's offense in check. On top of that BYU's offense was stifled against Ole Miss, which is exactly what will happen in this game, as the Longhorns will win and cover the 7-point spread.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!