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Ball State Cardinals (9-0) -17, N/A O/U at Miami (OH) University
Redhawks (2-7) +17, N/A O/U, Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio, 7 PM
Eastern, Tuesday, ESPN2
by Badger of Predictem.com
The 16th-ranked Ball State Cardinals look to continue their 2008 dream season as BCS “Busters” when they travel to Oxford, Ohio, Tuesday night to take on the Miami (OH) Redhawks in a Mid American Conference showdown on ESPN 2.
The Cardinals continued their march toward an undefeated season with a very impressive 45-14 victory over Northern Illinois last Wednesday night on ESPN. Ball State appears to be hitting on all cylinders right now, as quarterback Nate Davis threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns, running back MiQuale Lewis ran for over 100 and a score, and receiver Louis Johnson had 165 yards a and a score as the Cardinals offense topped the 500 yard mark for the first time this season.
Miami is about as low as they have been in their long storied history. The Redhawks program is well know for their “Cradle of Coaches,” with storied football coaching alumni both college (Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler and Ara Parseghian) and pro (Paul Brown, John Harbaugh and Sean Payton), but it’s safe to say that most of them would be worried about the current state of the Redhawks defense.
Not only did the Redhawks defense get gouged for 476 yards in a bad 37-17 loss to Buffalo last Tuesday on ESPN, but they were rolled for 468 yards in a 54-21 loss to Kent State the week before, and Kent State is a meager 2-7 this season. For the year the Redhawks defense is giving up an ugly 30.8 points per game and over 350 yards a contest.
Oddsmaker Sportsbook originally opened this game with Ball State as 15.5-point favorites, but most sportsbooks can’t find enough takers on the Miami Redhawks so the point spread has climbed up to 17-points at most outlets. There is no total listed as of press time, and the moneyline lists Ball State as -650 favorites with Miami as +520 underdogs.
Davis and the Ball State offense roll into town with some impressive numbers under their belts already. Davis has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 18 touchdowns, Lewis is already over 1,000 yards rushing with 15 TDs, and the receiver core is starting to show signs of improvement after the tragic loss of senior Dante Love. Through nine games the Cardinals offense is 11th in the country in both yards per game (458.4 ypg) and points per game (38.3 ppg).What makes times so tough in Oxford these days is the fact that the Miami offense isn’t much better than the aforementioned defense. Daniel Raudabagh and Clay Belton have rotated in and out of the quarterback position all season, but this week it will be Raudabagh (1,252 yds., 4 TD, 5 INT) playing since Belton left last week’s start versus Buffalo with an injury. Either way, the Redhawks are ranked 109th in all of the NCAA with a meager 18.3 points per game average.
The Ball State defense, allowing just 15.3 points a game (9th in NCAA), is very capable of overmatching the Redhawks offense. On paper, this game just looks ugly and one-sided on both sides of the ball.
Never underestimate karma though, as Miami certainly seems to have the Cards number lately. Last year the Redhawks stole a 14-13 victory on the road with a late touchdown with just 17 seconds remaining on the clock, and it was the Redhawks third win in the last four games head-to-head with Ball State (also 3-1 ATS).
For the year Ball State has been a cash machine, going 7-1 against the spread with an even 4-4 over/under record. Miami is 3-4 ATS, if it matters, and also 3-4 over/under for the year.
But this may be Ball State’s year, and they also have one solid betting trend on their side: the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Badger’s Pick: I’m surprised it’s not higher than 17 points! This game is a giant mismatch. Ball State wins in blowout fashion, so take the Cardinals minus the 17 points.
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