No. 6 Florida Gators (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. No. 10 Florida State Seminoles (10-1 SU, 4-7 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday November 24th, 2012. 3:30PM Eastern
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee, FL
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Fla +6/FSU -6
Over/Under Total: OFF
One of the most prestigious rivalries in college football has some restored national prominence this year when the no. 6 Florida Gators meet the no. 10 Florida State Seminoles inside Doak Campbell Stadium. Both teams have sporty 10-1 records this year and big things on the line this Saturday. The Seminoles have already punched their ticket to the ACC Championship Game and working to reach 11 wins for the first time since 2000. Florida on the other hand can nearly lock up a BCS Bowl berth with a victory over the Seminoles for the first time since the Tim Tebow era.
This Saturday's rivalry match-up will feature two of the best teams from the ACC and SEC rivaled conferences. In further detail, the game will feature just what both conferences have become. The Florida Gators from the SEC represent the conference backed by tremendous defense and power in the trenches. Meanwhile Florida State represents the ACC's agility and explosiveness with skill position talent, presenting an intriguing battle on both sides of the football.
From a rivalry perspective, the Seminoles have had the upper hand recently winning the last 3 meetings. In fact those last 3 games have all been rather decisive wins against the Gators with an average margin of victory by 18 points. However, Coach Will Muschamp has turned the Gators back into a national powerhouse and something tells me things will be much closer this year.
The Gators own the 4th best defense in the country allowing just 281 yards per game. Actually the Gators defense has carried the team this year. Offensively, Florida averages just 332 total yards per game (104th in FBS) despite running the football fairly well behind tailback Mike Gillislee (964yds, 8TDs). Instead the offense has made a living off of defensive turnovers and opportunities on the short side of the field. Therefore the Gators defense will need to find a way to stifle an extremely talented Florida State offense to help their offense as much as possible.
The Seminoles have averaged 493 total yards this season as the 14th best offense in college football. Earlier this year Florida State had an explosive rushing game with running back Chris Thompson and Devonta Freeman. The Seminoles still average over 200 yards per game running the football despite the loss of Thompson. However, QB E.J Manuel has made the biggest difference during the 2nd half of the season. Manuel has had a terrific season completing 68.8% passing for 2,785 yards with 21 touchdowns and 6 picks.
The Seminoles senior quarterback has been playing extremely well just as he did in the 41-14 win against Maryland last week by completing 17 of 23 passing for 2 touchdowns and a pick. This week it will be interesting to see if Manuel can keep plays alive and hit some targets down field against that strong Florida defense. I do not believe Florida State will win this game by running the football considering how solid Florida has been stopping the run this year. However, Manuel could be the difference once again for the Seminoles if he can come up with a few big plays.
Betting Trends: Florida is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and Florida State is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. The Seminoles have won 5 straight games SU at home but are just 2-6 SU against Florida over the last 8 meetings.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Both defenses will shine in this game as Florida State plays tough against the run and the Gators defense just plays well all around. This will be another low scoring game similar to last year's 21-7 victory for the Seminoles. Consider a play on the under once the total is released because it will be your best play for this game. Additionally, 5 of the last 6 meetings between Florida and Florida State have all gone 'under' the mark. If totals aren't your thing and you're looking for an opinion on the side, my lean is to Florida at +6. Good luck!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2014 College Football Predictions - Badger gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2015 National Championship game.
2014 Heisman Trophy Predictions - Jameis Winston is favored to win the award at 3-1 odds but Jay says this is a sucker bet! Marcus Mariota should be a contender and ball carriers TJ Yeldon and Melvin Gordon look good as well!
2015 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2015 National Championship. Despite not liking to side with heavy favorites, he believes the Alabama Crimson Tide are unstoppable and he has high expectations for them to cash his betting ticket at season's end!
Sportsbook - Get a free $100 bet after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
GTBets - Offers a HUGE 100% sign up bonus up to $500! Cool offer allows for you to pick 2 of your favorite college football teams and move the line a full point every time you bet those teams!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - This article is outdated and will be updated next year for the 2014 college football season.
Odds to Win the 2015 BCS Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +500 followed by Oregon at +800, Ohio St. +850, LSU/Texas A&M +1200 and Florida/FSU both at +1400. Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
Fantasy College Football - Draft a fresh team every week! Leagues range from $2 to $420! You can play head to head or in big groups! Payouts take place approx. one hour after the final Saturday game.
The Spread - Who will cover the spread? They will! Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!