No. 17 Florida Gators (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) at No. 1 LSU Tigers (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Saturday October 8th, 2011. 3:30PM EST, College Football Week 6
Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, La
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Fla +13.5/Louisiana St. -13.5
Over/Under Total: 41.5
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The top ranked LSU Tigers will face yet another challenge this Saturday when they host the no. 17 ranked Florida Gators at Tigers Stadium in Baton Rouge. LSU has already knocked off 3 teams that were ranked inside the top 25 this season and they will face another huge challenge this Saturday when they battle one of their biggest rivals by way of the Florida Gators. The Florida-LSU rivalry has been back and forth over the last 10 years with both teams splitting with 5 wins a piece. However, the Gators lead the all-time series 30-24-4 and will be attempting to increase that lead this Saturday.
The Gators will be entering Baton Rouge this Saturday following a bitter 38-10 blowout loss to Alabama last weekend. Not only did the loss show that Florida has still yet to make it back to SEC elite status, but the Gators lost QB John Brantley in the first half of the game as well. Brantley went down late in the first half when his leg and ankle appeared to get caught behind him as he was sacked by Alabama LB Courtney Upshaw. The extent of Brantley's injury is still unknown at this time. However, it did not appear to be a quick healing injury and the Gators will be preparing backup Jeff Driskel for the starting role this Saturday. Therefore, not only will the Gators be attempting to redeem themselves to the nation this Saturday in a bounce back position but they will be likely attempting to do so without their starting quarterback.
UF should at least know what to expect this weekend when they battle the Tigers. LSU has a very similar identity to that of the no. 3 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Both of those SEC powers have tremendous defenses and run a power rushing attack on the offensive side of the football. The Gators biggest problem against the Crimson Tide was the running game on both sides of the football. Florida entered last Saturday sporting a top 10 rushing unit, but was held to just 15 total rushing yards against the Crimson Tide. To make matters worse, the Gators gave up over 220 yards on the ground on the defensive side of the football as well. To make it simple, both offensive and defensive lines were completely dominated in all 4 quarters of play.
This week Florida will have to find a way to play better upfront. Gators' running backs Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey both have big play potential. Rainey leads the team with 74 touches for 415 yards and 2 scores. Demps averages a spectacular 8.8 yards per carry on the season and has 4 touchdowns to his credit as well. Both running backs are extremely dangerous in the open field, but the Alabama defense did not allow either tailback any opportunities to get the ball in the open field last week. Expect offensive coordinator Charlie Weis to come up with better ways to allow both playmakers the opportunity to touch the ball in the open field this week by possibly drawing up some easy plays for Driskel with some screen passes and a few end arounds to both Gators tailbacks.
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For the top ranked Tigers, the key will be simply not giving up any big plays of the defensive side of the football. LSU has the most talented back 7 in the entire nation and Florida will not beat them by throwing the football. Therefore, LSU must play well among the defensive front and work to quickly bring down the Florida tailbacks. So far this season, the Tigers have given up just 60 yards per game on the ground which ranks 3rd in college football. Therefore if they can stand strong against the run this week, the Tigers should be in strong position to knock off another quality opponent.
On offense, the Tigers will stick with their power rushing attack led by running backs Spencer Ware and Michael Ford. Ware currently leads the team with 323 yards, but Ford is just one yard shy of that total with 322 on the season. Both guys have great potential and can carry the workload. Ware is the guy that usually gets the majority of the touches averaging 4.0 yards per carry. However, Ford has responded with 5.3 yards per carry and a team high 6 scores. QB Jarrett Lee has not put up spectacular numbers this season, but he has done his job by limiting the mistakes that hurt the LSU offense a season ago. Lee has completed just 59% passing for 793 yards, but has 7 touchdowns compared to just 1 interception on the season. As long as the offense limits the mistakes, the LSU defense and running game will be extremely hard to overcome for not only the Gators but any opponent.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Florida's offense was anemic last week against Alabama's defense which should be a precursor of what to expect against LSU. However, LSU's offense can get into similar stale rhythm at times as well. Florida should have a chip on their shoulder in effort to make up for last week's loss and that is why I am holding off on pulling the trigger on LSU. Instead, the best play has to be the under. Both offenses will focus heavily on establishing the run and I believe that plays into the hands of both defenses. Expect a physical hard fought game that has fewer touchdowns. Take the under 41.5 total.
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