FOR THE 2011 GAME, GO HERE: Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers Pick
No. 1 Florida Gators (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. No. 4 Louisiana State
University (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS), 8:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, October 10,
2009, Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La., TV: CBS
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Florida -9/LSU +9
Over/Under: N/A
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The defending national champion and top-ranked Florida Gators are on cusp of their biggest game of the season on the road against the 4th- ranked Louisiana State Tigers this weekend, and the showdown itself might be overshadowed all week as the entire world waits to hear the answer to one question … will quarterback Tim Tebow will be cleared to play?
Tebow was knocked unconscious and hospitalized with a severe concussion for a few days following the Gators 41-7 victory over Kentucky two weeks ago, and even though he has resumed film study and preparations for the game he has yet to practice or be cleared to play by the Gators medical staff.
Florida head coach Urban Meyer continues to lobby for him to play though, saying he “looks terrific” and that he’s no longer suffering from post-concussion symptoms, but maybe he should have thought about this when he had his star quarterback attempting passes in order to run up the score in a 31-0 game against Kentucky.
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Meanwhile, the LSU Tigers get to enjoy the luxury of preparing for their biggest game of the season too, only without a whole lot of focus on them as the forgotten opponent. The Tigers stayed undefeated heading into the showdown with a strong come-from-behind victory over Georgia on the road between the hedges last weekend, 20-13, winning the game on a 33-yard run by Charles Scott with just 46 second left in the game.
A lot of sportsbooks have yet to put this game on the board as they wait for word on Tebow’s status, but the few offshore sportsbooks that have released betting odds for the game have the Gators as large 9-point favorites on the road in the Bayou. As of press time an over/under total has yet to be released as well.
While the world waits, Florida is prepping redshirt sophomore John Brantley to take the snaps for the Gator offense. Brantley has played well in limited action, converting 73.3 percent of his passes for 232 yards and four touchdowns, but most of that was done in mop-up duty against the likes of Troy and Charles Southern (yeah right, who?). Brantley has yet to take a snap in a meaningful game, so nobody knows what to expect from the man who has yet to start a game in his three- year career at Florida.
Brantley will have plenty of weapons in his arsenal, with running back Jeffrey Demps and receiver Riley Cooper being the biggest and best weapons of the mix. With Tebow the Gators are currently ranked 3rd in the country in total yards (526.2 ypg) and 2nd in scoring (45.5 ppg), but you can throw all of that out the window if the former Heisman winner is a no-go on Saturday.
On the other sideline, the Tiger offense is still struggling to find their stride. Sure they are 5-0 for the season with impressive wins on the road at Washington (31-23) and at Georgia last week, but they haven’t earned many style points in the process.
Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has nice numbers as the starter (62.5 comp %, 7 TD/2 INT), but his game is predicated on the Tigers getting into short yardage situations on third down. Against the Bulldogs last weekend the Tigers were 5-for-14 on 3rd down, a statistic that must improve on Saturday if they are going to have any chance of knocking off the defending champs.
If you’re a fan of fast-flowing and flat out speed on defense, then you’ll definitely want to keep your eyeballs tuned in to this game. The Gators returned all 11 starters from a year ago and it shows, as they are currently ranked 1st in the nation in total defense (212.8 ypg) and is 2nd in points allowed with a minuscule 7.2 points per game total.
The Tigers feature one of, if not thee best, set of defensive lineman in the SEC. Overall they are not nearly as good as the Gators unit as a whole (320.8 ypg – 38th), but they have a knack for keeping teams out of the end zone when they’re inside their own redzone (14.8 ppg allowed – 17th).
The Tigers also have two other motivating factors to keep in mind … playing in front of the Bayou faithful in Baton Rouge, and playing to erase the horrible memory of last year’s 51-21 ass-whopping in the Swamp.
In fact, the home team has held serve in their own stadium the last four season, with LSU earning a 28-24 victory back in 2007 in the last game played in Tigers Stadium. But when you account for the point spread the opposite holds true, as the road team has enjoyed a 6-2 ATS record in the last eight games in the series.
The Gators have made bettors a nice chunk of change at the window as they have covered the point spread in four straight head-to-head matchups, and are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall (dating back to 1999) including a perfect 5-0 ATS record in their last five games in Tiger Stadium. This will be the first time the Gators enter Tiger Stadium as the favorite though, since they were 8-point underdogs back in 2007, 6-point dogs in 2005, and 10-point dogs in 2003.
The under looks like a rock-solid wager too, not only because these two teams boast top-ranked defenses, but also because the under is 10-3 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between the two SEC powerhouses. The under is 5-2 in the last seven at Tiger Stadium as well.
Badger’s Pick: It really surprises me that Meyer and Florida is even considering playing Tebow in this game. Even if he’s cleared, he’s still one hit away from another concussion and more serious health problems. But my million dollar contract is not on the line, so what do I know. Personally I’m staying away from this game, too many questions without answers. But if the total opens in the high 40s, I’d be willing to bet on the under as I see this game as a defensive struggle with or without Tebow. Especially without.
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