Fresno State Bulldogs +21 (7-3) 2-8 ATS, 5-5 O/U at No. 9 Boise State Broncos -21 (11-0) 5-3-2 ATS, 4-6 O/U Friday, November 28 Bronco Stadium (30,000) Boise, Idaho 6:00 p.m. EST
by Wilson of Predictem.com
Boise State welcomes Fresno State this Friday in a WAC matchup that may be the Broncos toughest test as of late. The Bulldogs are well coached and known to surprise teams by playing aggressive, punch-you-in-the-mouth football. But the Broncos are on a mission of their own at 11-0 and making a case for a BCS bowl bid. Bronco’s Head coach Chris Peterson would love nothing more than to beat Fresno State in convincing fashion after last week’s scare against the Nevada Wolf Pack.
The Broncos avoided overtime by knocking down a last second Hail-Mary by Nevada and won the game 41-34. It was the usual attack by Boise State’s freshman quarterback Kellen Moore, who only threw for a career high 414 yards and 3 touchdowns, which earned him a spot on Boise State’s all-time passing yardage list. Moore had 319 passing yards in the first half; however, he did throw 3 interceptions to allow Nevada to creep back into the game. I think the Wolf Pack watched some film as Moore normally avoids the high turnover rate.
The Broncos wide receiver, Austin Pettis had 9 catches for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns. Boise State is averaging 37.5 points per game and they favor the passing game as they put up nearly 300 yards per game through the air.
Defensively the Broncos only give up 12.5 points per game. They defend the run well at just 106 total rushing yards per game allowed, and give up a bit more to the pass at 187 yards per game.
Fresno State is feeling pretty good after knocking off San Jose State last week 24-10 to up their bowl status and send their record to 7-3. It was an important win as the WAC may have 6 teams go bowling this season and the Bulldogs would like to be somewhere warm.
For the Bulldogs, it was a big thank-you to running back Anthony Harding who put the game away late in the second half by rushing for 2 touchdowns. He finished the night with 99 yards on 17 carries and 2 TDs.
The Bulldogs come in averaging 29.8 points per game and although they relied on the run against San Jose State, they usually have a balanced attack behind the leadership of QB Tom Brandstater. Also, the Bulldogs had 3 turnovers last week, 2 fumbles and 1 INT. They must take better care of the ball versus a stingy Bronco defense.
Fresno State’s Defense allows 24.6 points per game to their opponents, which is not a positive number especially on the blue turf in Boise with the high flying Bronco passing attack.
I’m always a little concerned when Fresno State goes on the road as they can be a spoiler, and the table is set for that to happen, Boise State will need to be on their “A” game Friday night.
Online Bookies are giving up 21 to the Bulldogs which I think is a nice gesture for the Broncos at home, but it should be a closer game than a three score advantage for Boise State. The Broncos will get it done, but I’ll give Fresno State a fighting chance.
Wilson’s Pick: If Kellen Moore is as good as I think he is, he will study the film, make adjustments on those three picks from last week and be even more productive, but Fresno plays tough and only goes down by 2 touchdowns and covers the spread - Broncos 28, Bulldogs 14. Luck to ya.
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