2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions

2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions and Betting Odds

by Jay, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

The most exciting time of the year is nearly among us. No it's not Christmas, but it might as well be because the 2011 College Football Season is just a few short weeks away. I know our readers are anxious to get the season kicked off and we are as well. Just think back to a year ago at this time, you probably had never even heard the name of Auburn QB Cameron Newton. Yet the dual threat quarterback came out of nowhere last season to lead the Auburn Tigers to their first National Championship in 53 years while also winning the coveted Heisman Trophy. Before the 2010 season, Newton's name was not even on the preseason ballot for the Heisman Trophy watch lists which just goes to show that picking the winner of the Heisman Trophy can be a very difficult task. However, that's not to say it cannot be done. So with that being said, here is an insider's breakdown (along with betting odds) of the 2011 Heisman "hopefuls" and how we feel those players will perform this season.

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QB Andrew Luck (Junior), Stanford Cardinals: +450

Andrew Luck was the 2010 runner-up in the Heisman Trophy race. Luck posted stellar numbers tossing 32 touchdowns, racking up 3,338 yards, and completing 70.7% of all passes thrown. Over the off-season, Luck shocked the world by deciding to return to Stanford for his redshirt Junior season. Considering the fact Luck could have been a possible number 1 pick in the NFL Draft, the decision to give up millions of dollars seemed shocking to say the least. However, Luck plans to get his degree before moving on and the 2010 runner-up will be the odds on favorite to win the prestigious Heisman Trophy this year.

Prediction - The last person to win the Heisman Trophy after finishing runner-up the prior season was Georgia's Herschel Walker back in 1982. Historically, the Heisman Trophy runner-up has a disappointing following season. The Stanford offense lost two of its biggest targets in wide receivers in Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen. Not to mention Coach Jim Harbaugh is now in the NFL with the 49ers. Still, this Stanford team is poised for another big season and 10 wins is definitely reachable. If that happens, Luck's name will stay in the running. However, I just do not see Luck bettering those numbers from 2010 in 2011.

QB Landry Jones (Junior), Oklahoma Sooners: +650

Like it or not, Landry Jones just may be your best pick among the "favorites" this season. Jones is coming off a huge sophomore season where he tallied 4,718 yards through the air with 38 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Luckily for Jones, he will have his favorite target back in WR Ryan Broyles who is one of the best receivers in the nation. More importantly the entire Oklahoma offense should be a seasoned group that will provide fireworks. A lot of predictions have Oklahoma in the National Championship by season's end. If that dream does come true for the Sooners, Jones should be a Heisman frontrunner if his numbers look similar or get better from last year.

Prediction - If Landry Jones stays healthy all season, I believe he will be a finalist in the 2011 Heisman Trophy race. There is simply a strong likelihood that Jones will post similar numbers to his 2010 campaign and if the Sooners are a bigger play in the National Championship picture it will only help his chances even further.

RB Marcus Lattimore (Sophomore), South Carolina Gamecocks: +700

Marcus Lattimore may be a name you have not heard yet especially if you do not follow the SEC. However, you will know his name soon enough. Lattimore has "NFL" written all over him. He is a bigger tailback that has a knack for breaking tackles. Last season as a true freshman, Lattimore made his SEC debut by breaking 29 tackles and racking up 198 yards against the Georgia Bulldogs. Coach Steve Spurrier handed the ball to Lattimore 40 times in the Gamecocks clash with Florida for the SEC East crown. Lattimore responded with 212 yards in a convincing win sending South Carolina to Atlanta for their first SEC Championship appearance. By the time the year was over, Lattimore had racked up nearly 1,200 yards on the ground and another 400 yards receiving. The SEC's top running back will only be better this season and he will receive an even bigger bulk of carries in 2011.

Prediction - From the off-season, Lattimore has put on some additional weight and could play at the 230-235lb range which will only make him more difficult to bring down. Additionally, he has dropped his 40 time from a 4.6 to a 4.5. Therefore, the chance for Lattimore to have a huge season is definitely on the table. However, the chance for any SEC running back to win the Heisman is slim when they have to battle those tough defenses in the SEC on a weekly basis. Lattimore will make his name known, but it will not be enough for the Heisman race unless the Gamecocks become a surprise National Championship contender.

QB Denard Robinson (Junior), Michigan Wolverines: +750

In 2010, Denard Robinson could have won the Heisman Trophy if the polls had tallied all the votes at the mid-season point. Robinson exploded out of the Wolverines offense last season by terrorizing defenses not only with his arm, but more with his legs in the Rich Rodriguez spread offense. By the time the year was over, Robinson racked up 1,702 yards on the ground which ranked 2nd in the NCAA. Additionally, Robinson completed 62% passing for 2,570 yards with 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Not bad numbers for a guy that was virtually unheard of before the 2010 season began. This year Robinson will be learning a new offense which may be more likely to slow him down than any of the Big Ten defenses.

Prediction - Offensive Coordinator Al Borges' will install a "pro style" favored offense in Ann Arbor this season meaning the offense will rely more on Robinson's arm than his legs. The jury is still out on what type of season is in store for the Wolverines, but I just do not see this type of offense benefitting Denard Robinson. Of course he will make some big plays, but overall his production will go down.

RB LaMichael James (Junior), Oregon Ducks: +750

The Oregon Ducks made a National Championship appearance last season falling just short to the Auburn Tigers 22-19. The Ducks used speed to set the tone for their offense throughout the season. Leading the charge was tailback LaMichael James who was simply a big play machine averaging 6.0 yards per carry. In the first 5 games of the season, James had at least 1 touchdown in each of those games for over 40 yards. At the end of the year, James led the entire nation in total rushing yards with 1,731 yards and also composed 24 total touchdowns. James accomplishments earned him a spot as a Heisman Trophy Finalist in 2010. If the Ducks meet expectations to contend for another National Championship again this season, James could make a repeat appearance as a Heisman Trophy Finalist.

Prediction - The Ducks will return plenty of firepower on offense and that will only help James continue to post stellar numbers. I don't personally believe James will win the Heisman Trophy but he may definitely be in contention throughout the season. This kid has racked up over 1,500 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons and does not show any signs of slowing down.

RB Trent Richardson (Junior), Alabama Crimson Tide: +1000

Junior Trent Richardson spent the last two years in Tuscaloosa sharing touches with former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram in the backfield. This season Richardson will be the feature back in what is expected to be a rushing favored offense down in Alabama. Richardson has shown signs that he can be a promising feature back. Throughout his career in Alabama, Richardson has averaged just less than 6 yards per carry and maintains plenty of a big play capability. The real test will be how Richardson can hold up through the course of an entire season.

Prediction - Perhaps I have not drank the Crimson Tide Kool-Aid, but I just do not see Trent Richardson as a legitimate Heisman Candidate like the folks believe down in Tuscaloosa. Sure, Richardson should put up some solid numbers considering coach Nick Saban will run the ball heavily as they break in a freshman quarterback. If you throw in the fact that the SEC West will be extremely talented on the defensive side of the ball as well, I simply do not see Richardson posting any eye popping numbers worthy of a Heisman Trophy.

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WR Justin Blackmon (Junior), Oklahoma State Cowboys: +1500

Justin Blackmon is coming off a stellar sophomore season that he capped off by winning the 2010 Biletnikoff Award given to the nation's best wide receiver annually. Blackmon's 2010 credentials were extremely impressive as he posted 111 receptions for 1,782 yards and 20 touchdowns. Blackmon's 1,782 yards ranked 2nd in the NCAA while his 20 receiving touchdowns ranked first among all receivers. This season, Oklahoma State has the opportunity to really have a breakout season in the Big 12. The offense is loaded and should provide plenty of firepower which makes Justin Blackmon's Heisman Trophy stock at +1500 odds fairly appetizing.

Prediction - Can Blackmon really better his numbers from 2010? That seems to be the big question. Even he does put up another big year, it will be hard to top the 1,782 yards and 20 touchdowns that he posted a season ago. Everything would have to go Blackmon's way for that to happen which will be difficult no matter how dangerous the Oklahoma State offense becomes.

WR Ryan Broyles (Senior), Oklahoma Sooners: +1500

Wide Receiver Ryan Broyles was one of the Biletnikoff Award Finalists in 2010 and will return for his senior season to help try to bring a National Championship back to Norman. Broyles was the biggest playmaker in the Sooners offense last season catching 131 passes for 1,622 yards and 14 touchdowns. This season his biggest opponent in the Heisman Trophy race may be his own teammate in QB Landry Jones rather than opposing defenses. For that reason alone, expectations are sky high for the Sooners offense.

Prediction - There is little doubt that Broyles will have a solid season and post respectable numbers if he remains healthy. Last season, Broyles was the single go to man in the Oklahoma passing attack. With emerging WR Kenny Stills and a host of upcoming talent, I really believe the ball will be spread around a bit more this season which may not benefit Ryan Broyles personal statistics. However, the Sooners offense should be more dangerous.

RB Knile Davis (Junior), Arkansas Razorbacks: +1600

Davis is the 3rd SEC running back on our list but possibly the least popular of all three. However, Davis is in a position to have a breakout season. The Arkansas Razorbacks offense in 2010 revolved around QB Ryan Mallett and a pass happy offense that accounted for over 4,000 passing yards. Despite the heavily favored pass offense, running back Knile Davis excelled out of the backfield averaging 6.5 yards per carry. On the season, Davis compiled 1,322 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. This season Mallett has moved on to the NFL and many expect Davis to see a bigger bulk of carries in 2011.

Prediction - The Razorbacks receiving group will still be among the best in the SEC. If QB Tyler Wilson can be effective, Davis should still be effective considering defenses will have to respect the pass. Davis will have to work harder for his yards this season, but I believe he will match his 2010 numbers. Unfortunately that will not be enough for a Heisman Trophy.

QB Kellen Moore (Senior), Boise State Broncos: +1800

Kellen Moore was also a 2010 Heisman Trophy Finalist who will return for his senior season. Moore led the nation in quarterback rating last year with a staggering 182.6 rating. Moore led the Broncos with 3,845 yards through the air with 35 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. The Broncos star quarterback is arguably the most consistent passer in the country. Moore ranked 3rd in the country last season completing 71.6% passing. Also consider the fact that Moore was only picked off 6 times in 383 attempts last season, which is a pretty remarkable feat. The Broncos offense will have to find a way to replace their top two receivers from 2010 in Austin Pettis and Titus Young who have journeyed to the NFL. If Moore can get help from some emerging talent at the receiver position, there is not any reason to expect more 'Kellen Moore' type numbers.

Prediction - If the Broncos can take down Georgia in their opener, they will be in the thick of the BCS Bowl picture if not the National Championship considering the rest of their schedule is weak to say the least. If the Broncos stay in the BCS Bowl hunt, Moore's stock will stay high. However, I still think it will be very tough, having to replace talent at the receiver position, to match his 2010 statistics.

QB Robert Griffin III (Junior), Baylor Bears: +2000

Show of hands, who has heard of Robert Griffin? That answer is likely not many people outside of fans from the Big 12. However, that does not mean Griffin is not worthy of a possible Heisman Trophy campaign. In 2010, Griffin completed 67% passing while racking up 3,501 yards through the air with 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Griffin lead the Bears to one of their most successful seasons in recent memory despite just reaching the 7-6 mark on the year. This season Griffin is expected to take the Baylor offense even further as the Bears will rely on the pass more with the loss of star tailback Jay Finley.

Prediction - When is the last time you seen a Heisman Trophy winner come from a team of "mediocre" status. In 2010 the Bears reached their first winning season in over a decade. Griffin will have the offense moving this season, but I don't see any way that he brings the Heisman Trophy home to Waco, Texas.

RB Chris Polk (Junior), Washington Huskies: +2500

Running back Chris Polk has amassed over 2,500 yards during his first two seasons for the Huskies. In 2010, Polk racked up 1,415 yards and 9 touchdowns while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Huskies' fans believe that more improvement out of the offensive line could result in Polk bettering his numbers from a season ago hence the pre-season Heisman Trophy hype.

Prediction - Now that Jake Locker has graduated, the Huskies will now have to deal with inexperience at the quarterback position. That may be good news for Polk as he may play an even bigger role in the offense. Polk may improve his numbers, but he will not be in the Heisman Trophy talk by the end of the year.

RB Roy Finch (Sophomore), Oklahoma Sooners: +3000

Roy Finch is the 3rd player from Oklahoma on our list which may be a bigger prelude to those 'National Championship' expectations for the Sooners. Let's face it, if your team is in the National Championship talk there is a better chance for you to standout in the Heisman Trophy race. Roy Finch is a guy that really has not "proven" anything on the field at this point in his career. As a freshman last season, Finch played behind senior DeMarco Murray. Finch did tally 398 yards on 85 carries for two touchdowns in that secondary role. However, this season he will be the feature back in an Oklahoma offense that will definitely rack up a ton of yards.

Prediction - I just do not see Finch as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. If Finch played for Oklahoma State, do you really think he would be on the Heisman 'hopeful' list? Likely not, but that still does not mean Finch cannot reach the 1,000 yard plateau this season which is a reachable goal. I just think the majority of the Sooners yards will come through the air this season.

QB Brandon Weeden (Senior), Oklahoma State Cowboys: +3200

As stated previously, the Oklahoma State offense is poised to be explosive in 2011. Senior quarterback Brandon Weeden will play a major role in their dynamic passing attack as well. Weeden compiled an outstanding 4,277 passing yards last season which ranked 3rd out of all quarterbacks in the nation. Weeden also completed 67% passing with 34 touchdowns and 13 picks. If Weeden can cut down on the interceptions, then he could be a legitimate contender especially if the Cowboys have that fore mentioned breakout year in the Big 12.

Prediction - Brandon Weeden is a genuine threat to make a run for the Heisman Trophy in 2011. Another 4,000 passing yard campaign and beyond will really vault his stock if the offense can meet expectations.

QB Case Keenum (Senior), Houston Cougars: +3500

A year ago I predicted that Case Keenum would be a Heisman Trophy Finalists in 2010. However, a season ending ACL injury in the 3rd week of the season prevented any possibilities for Keenum to contend. Instead this season Keenum is listed as a longshot at +3500 odds. However, remember this is the same guy that completed 70.3% passing while racking up 5,671 yards with 44 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 2009. If he can shake off the rust, it would be hard to deny Keenum the Heisman Trophy consideration if he posts those staggering numbers again.

Prediction - The Cougars have the tools in place to have a stellar offense now that Keenum is healthy. The key will be for Keenum to stay healthy. If that happens, I would expect some stellar numbers from the Cougars quarterback. However, I just do not see a Heisman Trophy winner coming from Conference USA. Not yet at least.

QB Darron Thomas (Junior), Oregon Ducks: +3500

LaMichael James received most of the praise for the Oregon offense last season, but quarterback Darron Thomas should have received a bit more of the recognition. Thomas was the guy in charge of Chip Kelly's spread and extremely fast pace offense. Often times the Ducks were snapping the next play only seconds after the prior play ended. Thomas had to make split second decisions in control of that offense. However, Thomas excelled completing 61.7% passing for 2,881 yards with 30 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Thomas also rushed for an additional 486 yards and 5 scores as well.

Prediction - I do not see Thomas throwing the ball for over 4,000 yards or some crazy high number that other Heisman Trophy quarterbacks could possibly reach. However, I do think he can put himself into the Heisman Trophy talk a bit more if he can produce more yards on the ground this season and have better production with his legs as a runner.

Jay's 2011 Heisman Trophy Winner Pick:

Prediction: Oklahoma QB Landry Jones

No I do not think Oklahoma will win the National Championship. However, they should be in the running and I see Landry Jones posting huge numbers this season. The Sooners offense looks poised to return as that dynamic power that could possibly post 40-50 points on a weekly basis. Therefore, I believe Landry Jones has the best opportunity to bring home the 2011 Heisman Trophy.

Good Luck!

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