Kansas State Wildcats (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. Texas Christian University Horned Frogs (6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date/Time: Saturday, December 3, 2016 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KSU +4.5/TCU -4.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
The Kansas State Wildcats (7-4) will journey to Fort Worth, Texas to face off against the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian in a Big 12 conference clash to serve as huge season finale University (6-5). This game has bowl implications and post-season ramifications on the line between both parties. The game will be televised regionally on FSN1 with a scheduled kick-off time of 12:00 PM ET. Since joining the Big 12, the Horned Frogs and the Wildcats have split the series in conference play, going for two for four in the previous encounters between both parties. Most recently in 2015, the Frogs locked horns with the Cats in Manhattan, Kansas coming out on top by a score of 52-45.
The Wildcats come in off a thrashing off cross-state rival Kansas, last week by a score of 34-19. The Wildcats have now won two in a row, coming out on top in four of their last five matches overall. At one point, the Cats’ post-season aspirations seemed to be jeopardized but Coach Bill Snyder quickly turned the tide and fortune of the team dubbed “The Wabash Cannonballs”. On the contrary, the Horned Frogs have not had the season they had hoped to by any means but nonetheless they have to feel good about the thrashing they pulled off against the Texas Longhorns on Thanksgiving weekend when they ransacked coronated in-state foe by a margin of 31-9. TCU had hopes to win the Big 12 in 2015 but will have to settle for the best bowl bid imaginable. In 2015, the Horned Frogs were ranked as high as #2 in some polls and even then they were ousted from the College Football Playoff in the final week despite an impressive campaign. This year has been far removed from last year’s result.
Going in to this contest both teams have been marginal against the spread this year but it is worth nothing that the Frogs have yielded some interesting betting trends. First, TCU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home contests where they played the role of host. To contrast this, Texas Christian is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home game against a team with a winning road record. The good news is that K-State is just 2-3 SU on the road. The bad news is TCU is 2-3 at home. The Frogs will undoubtedly hope to change that narrative in the penultimate conclusion to their regular season. Replacing Boykin has been a tough for the Purple and Black but it doesn’t mean they can’t get this right on the eve of the end of their regular season as they can build for next year to once again vie for the Big 12 conference championship. TCU will need to revamp their defense which has been the hallmark of recent years. In this campaign, the Frogs’ defense has come back down to Earth as they have been far more accommodating compared to the years previous where they shut down opponents.
The Horned Frogs are going to look to wrap up their season strong and potentially finish off with eight victories, finishing just below the marks they had initially aimed for. Nevertheless, Texas Christian would relish the chance to conclude their 2016 campaign with an exclamation point at home against a Kansas State outfit looking to hit the nine-win mark themselves. Very simply we are playing this from the angle of home field advantage even if TCU doesn’t seem to have one as this one will likely be a fan-influenced affair. It is very rare to see the general public take to an underdog at some of the figures we have seen in consensus metrics which suggests to us the favorite may actually be undervalued by virtue of failing to live up to high and lofty anticipation building in the pre-season. For Kansas State, eight wins is considered par for the course. For TCU, six wins seems to be a bit off the mark for the Frogs. Nevertheless, Gary Patterson knows how to rally his troops and thus TCU offers tremendous equity in this spot.
KEITH’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TCU -4.5
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