Kansas State Wildcats (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0, 7-1 ATS), 8:00 p.m. EST, College Football Week 10, Saturday, November 6, 2011, Boone Pickens Stadium at Lewis Field, Stillwater, Oklahoma, TV: ABC
by Scotty L, NCAA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KSU +20.5/OSU -20.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
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The Kansas State Wildcats travel to Stillwater to take on the undefeated Oklahoma State Cowboys in a key Big 12 matchup. Kansas State lost last week to Oklahoma for their first loss of the season, while the 8-0 Cowboys are looking to position themselves for a national championship. Between the two teams, they have covered the spread an amazing 13 out of 16 times this season.
Oklahoma State is really in a groove now, covering 7 straight times, and scoring 50 points a game. QB Brandon Weeden and Company are going hog-wild on opposing defenses. Except for a one-point win at Texas A&M and a 12-point victory at Texas, no team has come within 3 touchdowns of the Cowboys. Their average margin of victory at home, where they will be on Saturday, is 32 points.
Kansas State was certainly disheartened by a 41-point home loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. As nearly two-touchdown dogs at home, they weren’t expected to win perhaps, but the fact that they were not competitive was a small step back for a program that has shown great promise this year, with 6 straight covers and 7 straight wins--4 of those as a betting underdog. Then again, it’s going to take more than a loss to powerful Oklahoma to put a dent in the progress made by Coach Bill Snyder’s group this season.
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The Cowboys boast of a powerful offense that is 4th in the nation in total yards and passing yards, while 2nd in points scored. While Kansas State’s “D” has been tough against the run, their effectiveness in defending the passing attack has been lacking, ranking 103rd in the country. With passing-inclined Oklahoma State looking for some more love in the polls, this is an opportunity to make a big statement against a 14th-ranked Wildcats, whose defense has been porous in that category.
Oklahoma State, however, has some defensive liabilities of their own. The Cowboys “D” is giving up 455 yards per game and is 101st against the pass. Kansas State is a running team, but in that category, Oklahoma State ranks 84th. Their offense is so good that they’ve been winning lopsided shootouts, but one wonders what will happen if the offense has a bad day. The Cowboys “D” is a unit that can be exploited.
K-State has been good on the road, going 3-0 at Miami, Texas Tech, and Kansas. Their offense runs through junior QB Collin Klein. From a passing standpoint, he isn’t very prolific, but he is efficient--with only 3 picks in 8 games. Klein is also the team’s leading rusher with 762 yards and 16 touchdowns. In fact, only 4 Kansas State touchdowns this year were not either thrown or run in by Klein.
The Cowboys’ offense is far more dynamic. QB Weeden is completing over 70% of his throws with 22 touchdowns. The receiving crew is deep, led by Justin Blackmon with 74 catches. RB Joseph Randle has run for 834 yards and 16 touchdowns. One of the best offenses in the nation, it doesn’t stand to reason that the Wildcats will be able to curb their high-flying ways. Maybe if their running game is clicking, they can eat up big chunks of clock and take some of the pep out of the Cowboys, but Oklahoma State will be scoring touchdowns.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Oklahoma State laying almost 3 touchdowns to a 7-1 conference team can be a jarring line upon first glance. After all, Kansas State is one of the top-20 running teams in the nation, while Oklahoma State’s defense can be made to look foolish at times. At the same time, a 41-point loss at home to Oklahoma last week might be an indicator on how the Wildcats are out of their depth against the truly elite.
Now on the road, they are facing an equally-powerful offensive force in Oklahoma State and another rout could be in the cards. Look for a maligned Cowboys’ “D” to keep Klein in check, while their offense has another typically explosive day. Take Oklahoma State minus 20.5 points.
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