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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds - Prediction

Kentucky Wildcats (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1st, 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, A.L.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: Kentucky +34/Alabama -34
Over/Under Total: TBA

The no. 1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide returns to SEC competition this week when they host the Kentucky Wildcats inside Bryant-Denny Stadium. Last week the Crimson Tide overcame a 43 point spread, to shutout Kent State 48-0 to remain unbeaten and move their ATS mark to 3-1 on the season. This week Alabama will once again be big favorites when they welcome the Wildcats into Tuscaloosa. However, the Wildcats are coming off a big victory over South Carolina and they will look to keep their new found confidence rolling against the top team in the country.

After several weeks of getting beat up on the defensive side of the football, Kentucky found some answers in last Saturday’s 17-10 victory over South Carolina. The Wildcats bottled up the Gamecocks and allowed just 268 yards of total offense. It was a huge different from the opening 3 games where Kentucky allowed over 40 points and nearly 500 yards of offense in each game. The big question going into this week that I have proposed following last Saturday’s win is did Kentucky really improve or was South Carolina’s offense just that bad?

Unfortunately for Wildcats fans, I think South Carolina’s offense was just that bad. The Wildcats still gave up some big plays and there would have been several more if the Gamecocks could have hit some throws down the field. Therefore, I am not concerned that the defensive issues for Kentucky have truly been resolved. Alabama’s offense line completely dominates Kentucky’s defensive line in size and talent. Therefore, I expect the Crimson Tide to bully Kentucky in the run game with the help of Crimson Tide running back Damien Harris. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is also dangerous with his feet and I saw a few trends in last week’s game that leads me to believe Hurts will have a monster game on Saturday and since I have been correct on every Alabama game so far this season, pay attention.

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The Wildcats allowed South Carolina quarterback Brandon McIlwain to extend plays over and over again last Saturday night. South Carolina had receivers that were running down the field open but McIlwain just could not get them the ball. That will not be the case this Saturday. While Alabama grinds their way on the ground, Hurts is going to have chances to exploit Kentucky’s secondary down the field. Hurts will be able to extend plays and deliver accurate throws down the field. When that happens, Alabama is going to have the recipe for big plays that lead to quick strikes on offense.

However, Kentucky’s defense is not the only reason this game is a total mismatch. The Wildcats offense is right there with South Carolina for the worse groups in the SEC. In their two SEC games thus far, the Wildcats have scored a combined 24 points and 250 yards on average. While those two games were against solid defenses, Alabama has the best defense in the conference. Outside of the shootout with Chad Kelly and the Rebels offense, Alabama’s defense has been pretty dominant and I just do not think Kentucky’s offensive line can give Stephen Johnson enough time to through the football.

In last week’s victory, Kentucky was still pretty bad when it came to trying to throw the ball down the field. Running backs Stanley Williams and Benjamin Snell delivered the majority of the offense with nearly 200 yards rushing combined and two touchdowns. Kentucky is not going to be able to run the ball like that against Alabama unless something truly bizarre transpires in Tuscaloosa Saturday night. When that happens, I don’t have any confidence that Johnson can deliver the ball down the field on a consistent enough basis to keep this game competitive.

Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Alabama owns a 36-2-1 record all-time against Kentucky. Not only does that streak continue Saturday but the Crimson Tide will also cover the spread. Take Alabama -34

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NCAA Football Week 4 Betting Previews

Here are some additional game previews from this week's college football card.

Free Picks

Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!

Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.

Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.

Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.

College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.

Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.

Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.

2017/2018 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2018 National Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 8th.

2017 Heisman Trophy Predictions - USC QB Sam Darnold is a heavy pre-season favorite to win college football's most coveted award, but Jay isn't buying it. In fact, he's passing up the top (3) favored players in favor of a QB who he's confident will be NCAA football's best player in 2017.

2017-2018 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the Alabama Crimson Tide running away with the National Championship this season and who can blame them? Roll Tide is LOADED! It never happens that easy though. The USC Trojans (+825), Florida St. Seminoles (+850) and Ohio St. Buckckeyes (+875) all have a legit shot. Oddsmakers have Oklahoma (+1300) on the bubble and everybody looking from the outside in at 20/1 or higher. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!

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Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - USC QB Sam Darnold starts the season off as a heavy favorite at +350 odds. Sooners QB Baker Mayfield is second on the list at +700 but can he keep his nose clean? Louisville QB Lamar Jackson should dominate this season but will Louisville be taken seriously? Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman is worth a pop at 60/1 if he gets the carries. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. But will they throw the ball enough with a QB who likes to run? Missing from this year's list of odds is a defensive player.

Odds to Win the 2017 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are heavy favorites to win the National Championship this year at 5/2 followed by Ohio St. at 13/5, USC at 7/1 and FSU at 17/2. Things drop off a bit with the Oklahoma Sooners coming in at 12/1, Auburn Tigers at 14/1 and Michigan Wolverines at 16/1. Check out your favorite school's odds here!

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