Kentucky Wildcats (2-2, 1-3 ATS) at No. 25 South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1, 4-0 ATS) Williams Brice Stadium Columbia, S.C. Saturday October 10th, 12:30PM Eastern
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Kentucky +11.5/South Carolina -11.5
Over/Under: TBA
Bet this SEC battle at a sportsbook that offers a free half point when you bet your NCAA football/NFL football games on Thursday's: Sportbet.
The No. 25 South Carolina Gamecocks finally broke into the Top 25 this week credit to their 4-1 start that included a big upset over Mississippi two weeks ago. The Gamecocks took care of business last week against Division II opponent South Carolina State 38-14 and now turn focus back to the SEC when they host the Kentucky Wildcats Saturday afternoon.
The Gamecocks are no surprise to early season success as they hold a 16-5 record in the first 7 games of over the past 3 seasons. However, the Gamecocks have been unable to finish season's strong going 6-12 in the final 6 games over the past 3 seasons. Normally this is the time of the year South Carolina gives in to the brutal SEC schedule, but if Coach Steve Spurrier is truly going to start contending for an SEC Title the Gamecocks must finish the year like they have started.
The Kentucky Wildcats have yet to score a conference victory this season, but they have taken on likely the two best SEC opponents in their first two conference losses to Florida and Alabama. The Wildcats played Alabama fairly well early in the game last week before the Crimson Tide pulled away to a 38-20 victory. The Wildcats now embark on a very difficult two game road trip that includes meetings with No. 25 South Carolina this week followed by No. 17 Auburn.
If the Wildcats are to score an SEC victory during the first half of the season, they are going to have to pull of an upset. The problems for Kentucky have not been simple to diagnose. The Wildcats scoring offense ranks next to last in the SEC averaging 25 points per game and their scoring defense ranks 3rd worse allowing 26.5 points per game. Although the statistics are not convincing, the Wildcats will have an opportunity for an upset early Saturday.
Early games have always been subject to upsets in the SEC and this week will be no different. South Carolina struggled in the first half against inferior teams like Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State. The reason is the offense. The offense production is better than they were a year ago, but still lacks explosiveness. QB Stephen Garcia is a work in progress in just his sophomore season, but has really improved in limiting bad passes. Garcia threw 8 interceptions in limited action last season, but has only thrown 2 as a starter this season.
THE VALUE IN THIS ONE IS WITH THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS. FIND THE MOST GENEROUS UNDERDOG BETTING ODDS AT SPORTSINTERACTION
Still, Garcia and the passing game have not had a lot of big plays to threaten defenses. The passing game has just 1 play over 45 yards this season and Garcia is averaging just over 200 yards per game. Luckily for the Gamecocks, they have had more success on the ground this year. Freshmen Jarvis Giles and Kenny Miles have a bright future in Columbia. Both backs are carrying a stout 6.0 yards per carry despite being limited to just 67 carries combined. However if the offensive line continues to improve, these talented freshmen's numbers are sure to climb rather significantly.
The Gamecocks defense remains the strength of the team as they did in 2008 ranking 13th overall in the country. Despite losing many starters, the defense has remained strong allowing just 16.8 points per game. LB Eric Norwood is among the most electrifying defensive players in the country. Norwood who leads South Carolina all-time in both sacks and tackles for loss has been extremely impressive this season. Norwood leads the SEC with 6 sacks already this season and also leads the SEC in tackles for loss as well.
The Gamecocks star linebacker also has 2 picks, blocked punt, and blocked field goal this season to prove his big play ability. However, the entire defensive front for South Carolina is very strong and they are tied with Alabama for most sacks in the SEC with 15 total. If the defense comes up big like they did against Ole Miss, Kentucky chances for an upset will be diminished. However, the defense has appeared vulnerable at times this season especially against the run so perhaps the Wildcats can find some room to run.
The Wildcats offense is led by junior quarterback Mike Hartline. Hartline has provided very little success in the passing game averaging near a conference worse 163 yards per game. Those passing numbers are scary considering Hartline will face the toughest secondary they have seen to date from the Gamecocks who ranked 2nd overall in 2008 and are only allowing 150 per game this season. Kentucky main success when they have had success has come by way of the ground. Tailbacks Derrick Locke and Alfonso Smith are both averaging just over 4 yards per carry, but have only found the end zone 3 times on the season. Still, these two running backs will be a key into keeping the Wildcats in the ball game. However, considering the offenses overall production they are going to need their defense to force some turnovers as well.
Jay's Pick - The Wildcats stayed close to Alabama for much of the game despite 4 turnovers last week. Early games are scary for South Carolina and due to a lack of points by either offenses, Kentucky should keep the game in within the spread.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
