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Each week, we eyeball the opening line in comparison to the current odds and follow all the major college football line movement and decipher whether it's coming from public money or sharp action-wiseguy plays.
In cases where we feel there is value, we'll recommend a play on the move and keep a record of how that does here. This is a new variable to our website so we're not quite sure how the results will turn out by common sense says that if we are selective and pick and choose where we feel there is value that these plays will be a winner long term.
We'll watch the moves throughout the week but only post our takes on these moves on Friday afternoon so we can hold out as long as possible to get the most information possible.
While we would never recommend playing a game blindly by coattailing a line move, there is however great value to this information if you know how to harness it. We'll be making our best attempt to do just that. Who knows, maybe we snag into 62 or 63% with this play? :) Good luck to us!
Week 14: (11/01/07) Our first look is UCLA at USC. This game opened at -16 and has moved to -20. The public thinks UCLA can stay within the number. How are the Bruins going to score though? We see USC in a romp here. Our second game of interest features the Beavers heading into Oregon for a civil war game that opened at a pickem, has moved to OSU -1 and will likely be a dud. The world is down on Oregon because they got beat by Arizona who was actually playing some good ball and then got shutout by a Bruins team that SUCKS. The sky is falling the sky is falling! Not today it isn't. Autzen stadium is one hell of a home field advantage and OSU is in for a long day. We'll take the Ducks at +1. That's all folks!.
Our Picks: USC -20 and Oregon +1.
PREVIOUS WEEK'S PICKS AND RESULTS:
Week 13: (11/24/07) As you can see by our current record, the line movement plays should be approached with caution. Games with movement that interested us this week include: Uconn/West Virginia in which W.V. opened at -17 and the line has gone to -18.5, Ohio opening up at -2.5 and the line moving 4 points towards Miami-Ohio making them the fav at -1.5 and lastly Oregon/UCLA in which Oregon opened at -2 and the game has moved to Oregon -1.
Our Picks: West Virginia -18.5, Miami-Ohio -1.5 and UCLA +1.
Week 12: 11/17/07) Likable line moves were far and few in between this week. Bowling Green started out as a a -1.5 favorite and moved down to a pickem which was not surprising as we feel that Buffalo should of been favored from the get-go. Kent/Temple had a huge 3.5 point swing with Kent starting out as a -2.5 favorite and when the movement was done Temple ended up being a -1 fav. Lastly, Oregon State/Washington State started out as a pickem and moved to WSU -3. The above all justifed a play in our minds while others didn't make sense or disinterested us.
Our Picks: Buffalo pickem (loss), Temple -1 (Winner), Washington State -3 (loss).
Week 11: 11/10/07) As usual, there was a fair amount of line movement this week. We're on quite a few of them including a big game that has been knocked off the almighty "3" down to +2.5. Key games this week include: Colorado vs. Iowa State (opened at Colorado -6.5 and moved down to -4), Houston vs. Tulsa (opened with Tulsa -2.5 and now a pickem), Texas AM vs. Missouri (opened with Missouri as a -17.5 fav. and now -19) and Michigan vs. Wisconsin (Wolverines opened -3 and it's moved down to -2.5).
Our Picks: Iowa State +4 (Winner), Houston pickem (loss), Missouri -19 (loss) and Wisconsin +2.5 (Winner).
Week 10: 11/3/07) We stunk up the joint again last week with our 0-1 performance. Many sharp bettors are having a hell of a college football season as the public favorites are coming in at an alarming rate. We'll continue to only put out very few games until we turn it around. While we're on some games that had movement, the line changes were fairly insignificant. These plays include Michigan St. moving from -4.5 down to -4, Oregon moving up from -7 to -7.5, the Michigan/Michigan St. UNDER which went from 53 to 51 and Rutgers on the road which went from +3 to +1.
Our Picks: Michigan State +4 (tie), Mich/Mich. St. UNDER 51 (loss), Oregon -7.5 (Winner) and Rutgers +1 (loss).
Week 9: 10/27/07) Back after an absolute bloodbath last week when all of our games fell apart in the 4th quarter. Back on track this week and unfortunately there was very little line movement that we found any value in. The one game that stood out was North Carolina vs. Wake in which the line opened at -6.5 and went down to -5.5 (in favor of Wake) and back up to 6. We like UNC here and think they have a great shot of winning straight up. This is our only line move play this week.
Our Picks: North Carolina +6.
Week 8: 10/20/07) Penn State vs. Indiana opened up with the Nittany Lions as an 8 point favorite and has been bet down to a touchdown. Army vs. Georgia Tech opened with G.T. -25.5 and has dropped 2 points down to 23.5. Wyoming vs. Air Force opened with the Falcons as a -3.5 favorite and has dropped to -2.5 crossing the key number of 3 which is HUGE. Wyoming may qualify as a play of the week here. Oregon who is banged up with injuries travels to Washington vs. a solid Huskies team. This game opened with the banged up Ducks as an 11 point favorite and has moved up to 13. We love taking the points here with the dogs. Lastly, Michigan opened up vs. Illinois as a field goal favorite. The game is quickly moving towards a pickem as many wiseguys believe the Fighting Illini have what it takes to knock the Wolverines off straight up.
Our Picks: Indiana +7 (Winner), Army +23.5 (loss), Wyoming +2.5 (loss), Washington +13 (loss) and Illinois +1 (loss).
Week 7: (10/10/07 through 10/13/07) Eastern Michigan visits Ohio in which Ohio opened at -5. The line has been bet down to +4 and it's been confirmed that this is sharp action. In one of the more exciting games of the day, Louisville visits Cinci in what should prove to be more uncovering of how much of a fraud this Louisville team is. We full expect Cinci to trounce them at home despite the line moving the opposite direction which is public driven. Bowling Green plays road dog to Miami-Ohio in which the wrong team is favored here. Miami-Ohio opened at -2.5 and it has quickly been bet down to a pick'em. Get on Bowling Green quick before you end up having to lay points. A big game with a small line move is Wiscy/Penn St. The public is hammering the Badgers while the reality of the situation is that PSU has a much better team and we have them winning by 10-14 points. This line opened at PSU -6 and has moved to -6.5 despite the public hammering the Badgers. Not so fast! Notre Dame is not washed up YET. BC visits the Fighting Irish and oddsmakers gave N.D. absolutely no respect with BC laying -14.5. Notre Dame is BAD, but not that bad. The line has been bet down to +13.5. Take N.D. at home to cover this big number. A gritty Tulane team visits UAB in another situation where we feel the wrong team is favored. UAB opened at -3.5 and it's moved down to 2.5. Our lone total on this week's card is Marshall/Tulsa OVER 71. This line opened at 69.5 and has moved up 1.5 points despite the pulbic hitting the UNDER. Lotsa points going to be scored there! Getcha some! In what may be our favorite game of the day, Indiana visits an almost always overrated Mich. State team. This line opened with MSU laying -5.5 and was quickly picked off by wiseguys bumping the line down to 3.5. In all likelihood, if the Hoosiers play like they CAN, they will win this game straight up. SMU visits Southern Miss and opened getting +10. This line has been bet down to 9 despite the public heavy on S.Miss. Sharp action coming in on SMU at +9.
Our Picks: Eastern Michigan +4 (loss), Cincinnati -10 (loss), Bowling Green pick'em (loss), Penn State -6.5 (Winner), Notre Dame +13.5 (Winner), Tulane +2.5 (loss), Marshall/Tulsa OVER 71 (loss), Indiana +3.5 (loss) and SMU +9 (loss).
Week 6: (10/06/07) As with every week, Week 6 college football odds saw it's share of movement. Unfortunately we didn't find many of the moves to be of much value so we only have a few line movement plays this week. The South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic game opened at -15.5. The line has since moved to 17 which is a key number. We feel there's good value here in taking the points despite the fact that S.Fla is hotter than a two dollar pistol. Florida travels to LSU this week for a titanic matchup in which LSU opened at -7.5. The public has moved this line to an even 7 and we couldn't be any happier. LSU should trounce the defending champions making them a clear cut choice to be the number one team in the nation. Lay the -7 with the Tigers. Arizona travels to Oregon State for a mid day game. Oregon State opened at -5.5 but sharp action has brought the line all the way down to 3. Take Arizona and the +3 before it drops any more. Miami Florida opened as an -8.5 favorite AT North Carolina. The wiseguys quickly drilled the game down to 6.5 and it's been rising since due to public action. Take the current line of +7 and look for UNC to maybe even win this game straight up. Virginia travels to Middle Tennessee State in which they opened at -10.5. The line has only moved a half point down to +10 but we feel this is a tremendous value play as Middle Tennessee St. should be able to move the ball on the Cavs of Virginia. We like a few totals as well. Stanford/USC opened at 61 and has been hammered down to 57 despite the public hitting the over. We wish we'd have been quicker in getting on this but we still like it at under 57. Oklahoma and Texas opened at 57. Its since been bet down to 54.5. We still like the under in what should be a defensive battle.
Our Picks: Florida Atlantic +17 (Winner), LSU -7 (loss), Arizona +3 (loss), North Carolina +7 (Winner), Middle Tennessee State +10 (Winner), Stanford/USC UNDER 57 (Winner) and Oklahoma/Texas UNDER 54.5 (Winner).
Week 5: (09/27/07-09/30/07) Back from a pretty uneventful 4-4 week last week. Other than Memphis we were in all those games until the end but a loss is a loss! There's been quite a few moves worth watching this week. Iowa opened at -13.5 and has been bet down to -10.5 and it's sharp action. While the Air Force/Navy game has only moved a half point, Air Force warrants a play in this spot. Syracuse coming off a huge upset of Louisville opened at a sucker -2.5. Sharps quickly took notice and hit it down to 1.5 and it may move even more before gametime. Miami-Ohio is the play there. Oregon opened up as a 3.5 favorite at home vs. Cal. Surprisingly the public is hammering the Cal Bears and the line moved a fat 3 points up to -6.5. I liked it a hell of a lot more at -3.5 than I do at -6.5 as we lost the key number of 4, but still worth a lunch money bet on the Ducks. Bama has been bet down a point but I still like FSU at -1.5 and am FADING the line move as the public is on the Tide. Kansas State/Texas opened with Texas at -15. The line has been bet down to -14 currently. These two teams play eachother tough. We're gonna grab the points here. Nevada opened as a -6 fav. vs. helter-skleter UNLV and the sharps have been hitting UNLV hard. The current line is -3.5. Grab UNLV while the hook is still there. Western Michigan opened up as a -2 fav. at Toledo for whatever reason and the line has moved 3.5 making Toledo the -1.5 favorite. There is a huge move in the Ohio game where they opened up as a -2.5 favorite vs. Kent and now Kent is the favorite at minus three. Maryland opened up as a 13 point dog to Rutgers and the line has skyrocketed to 18. Now that it's crossed the key nubmer of 17 we think there's some value with the Terrapins. BYU opened up getting a bit much respect as a -7.5 fav. vs. New Mexico and the wiseguys hammered the heck out of it down to 4. Grab it now (+4) before it drops more. Lastly, the UCLA/OSU has moved from 56 to 53 and is worth a look.
Our Picks: Indiana +10.5 (Winner), Air Force +2.5 (loss), Miami-Ohio +1.5 (Winner), Oregon -6.5 (loss), Florida State -1.5 (Winner), Kansas State +14 (Winner), UNLV +3.5 (loss), Toledo -1.5 (loss), Kent -3 (Winner), Maryland +18 (Winner), New Mexico +4 (loss), UCLA/Oregon State UNDER 53 (loss).
Week 4: (09/20/07-09/22/07) There is a fair amount of line movement going on this week. Ironically we're not very excited about the big moves and have stuck to games that have moved only a half point and we're even fading four moves this week which may be the most spittin' in the wind we've ever done on one Saturday. For starters, we like Ball State vs. Nebraska. The game opened with the Huskers as a -21.5 fav and it's moved to -23. Great for us. We love Ball State here and are fading the move this week. Georgia travels to Bama this week and opened as a +4 dog. The line has moved to +3.5. We think Georgia likely wins straight up here and are tailing the move. Memphis travels to Central Florida and opened as a +7.5 dog. The game has since moved down to 7 and for good reason. Memphis has a legit shot of wining this game straight up. We fade the move again with the Kentucky/Arkansas matchup. The game opened with the Razorbacks as a 7-point favorite and has moved to -6.5. We're not following this action as Kentucky has little to no chance of winning at Arkansas. FYI we believe it's the public driving this line move so it doesn't worry us at all to fade the movement. Texas opened up giving Rice -38.5. It's since droppped a point to -37.5. Folks, this ain't the same Texas team as we're used to seeing stomp bad teams into the turf. Give us those +37.5 points with Rice. Another tiny move we're fading is WSU visiting mighty USC. It opened at 25.5 and has moved to 25. It may move more before gametime so you may want to wait. We're happy with Wash. St. at +25 though as we love their heady and feel that he can handle the pressure. A fat line move we're fading is the Gamecocks playing at LSU. LSU has absolutely dominated opponents this season but that doesn't scare us. The Cocks are well coached and are a great team. 18.5 is a ton of points in college football and is on the right side of 17, which is actually a key number in NCAA games believe it or not. Lastly, we're tailing a move that has Kansas currently at -32. We absolutely hate laying big wood but this is as lopsided of a matchup as you'll find in college football this year. Sorry that we didn't address the bigger line moves of the week. We either couldn't get a good feel for the game or didn't find a reasonable advantage to exploit. Keep in mind we don't just jump in head first because a line moves. We examine those games closer and make a move when we feel like the value is on our side. Good luck!
Our Picks: Ball State +23 (Winner), Georgia +3.5 (Winner), Memphis +7 (loss), Arkansas -6.5 (loss), Rice +37.5 (loss), Wash St. +25 (loss), South Carolina +18.5 (Winner) and Kansas -32 (Winner).
Week 3: (09/13/07-09/15/07) Some of our line move plays this week are actually going to be some of the smaller movements on the board while we'll ignore some of the bigger ones which lack substance. For starters, Cincinnati opened up at -8 on the road against Miami-Ohio. Cinci doesn't deserve to be laying points on the road vs. anybody. Their win over Oregon State proved nothing other than that OSU needs to re-evaluate their QB situation as OSU beat themselves making Cinci look like a good team this year. The line has dropped down to Cinci -7 and it wouldn't surprise us one bit if Miami-Ohio beat the Bearcats staright up. The second line move we like is a tiny half point drop in the Fresno State/Oregon total. It opened at 64, the public is hammering the over expecting all kinds of points to be scored when the reality is this number is very lofty and the game is very likely to go under. It's only dropped a half point to 63.5 so get that UNDER now before it moves more! Our third line movement selection comes from Texas/Central Florida. The horns opened as a 20 point favorite and have been bet down to -17. Seventeen is a key number in college football. At this number C. Fla is a play, but pass if it goes any lower. Our 4th pick may surprise you. Louisville opened as a -7.5 fav and have been bet down to -5.5. The public is betting the chit out of the Cardinals while Kentucky is getting major sharp action. We're siding with the Wildcats at +5.5 here. Lastly, a game that is going to fly under many cappers radar: Minnesota at Florida Atlantic. The game opened with the Golden Gophers as a ten point favorite and has been bet down to -7. We like Fla. Atlantic here and they may even win straight up. We're not suggesting laying down a whopper on the moneyline but some lunch money wouldn't hurt. Good luck this week! Our Picks: Miami-Ohio +7 (loss), Fresno St./Oregon UNDER 63.5 (loss), Central Florida +17 (Winner), Kentucky +5.5 (Winner), Florida Atlantic +7 (Winner).
Week 2: (09/06/07-09/8/07) Take Northwestern at -8.5. It opened at -7 and quickly was bumped up to -8.5. We expect it to move a bit more as the week goes on as well. Alabama travels to Vanderbilt in which the Tide opened at -5.5 and the line has moved down to -3.5. We think this is a great spot for Vandy here and wish we'd have played it sooner but we do still like the spread at Vandy +3.5. We also have interest in the South Carolina/Georgia game. Another line that opened at 5.5 with the Bulldogs being favored. We feel that South Carolina is the better team here and are happy to take them at the current line of +3.5. Another game we originally didn't have ANY interest at all in is Cal at Col. State. This line is fishy as hell opening at Cal -16.5 and being bet down to -14. Something stinks here and in sports betting where there's stink there's fishy results. We're going to take a shot here with CSU at +14 and hope that the sharps that have nailed this line down will lead us to the money. Our Picks: Northwestern -8.5 (loss), Vanderbilt +3.5 (loss), South Carolina +3.5 (Winner)and Colorado State +14 (Winner).
Week 1: (8/30/07-09/03/07) The Tulsa/UL Monroe game has seen the opening line move from Tulsa favored at -6.5 down to -3.5. The public is NOT on UL Monroe in this game which indicates the sharps are liking UL Monroe. Our Pick: UL Monroe +3.5. (Loss)
Virginia/Wyoming (9/1/07) opened with the Cavaliers laying -4.5. The line has dropped down to the key number of "3" despite the public hammering the Cavaliers to the tune of 66.6%. Our Pick: We're recommending a play on the Wyoming Cowboys at +3. (Winner)Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA selections in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
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