Each week, we eyeball the opening line in comparison to the current odds and follow all the major college football line movement and decipher whether it's coming from public money or sharp action, syndicate betting and/or wiseguy plays.
In cases where we feel there is value, we'll recommend a play on the move and keep a record of how that does here. We'll be selective and "pick and choose our spots" and it's very likely that these plays will be a profitable proposition long term.
We'll watch the moves throughout the week but only post our takes on these moves on Friday afternoon so we can hold out as long as possible to get the most information possible.
While we would never recommend playing a game blindly by coattailing a line move, there is however great value to this information if you know how to harness it. We'll be making our best attempt to do just that. Who knows, maybe we snag into 62 or 63% with this play? :) Good luck to us! (Plays posted each week by Friday afternoon).
Bowl Game Line Move Plays: The Alabama Crimson Tide opened up as -6 favorites in the NCAA Championship game and have moved up to -6.5 despite receiving only 39% of the action. We believe Bama will be able to run on this Clemson D. We also like the fact that the Clemson D showed it's vulnerability in giving up a ton of points to Pitt and Virginia Tech.
College Bowl Game Line Move Plays: Bama -6.5 (lost 31-35)
Week 14: (12/2 through 12/3) Temple opened as +3 road dogs and have dropped to +2.5 despite only 27% backing the Owls.
Week 14 CFB Line Move Plays: Temple Owls +2.5 (won 34-10).
Week 13: (11/22 through 11/26) The Oregon State Beavers opened as +3.5 home dogs to the Oregon Ducks. The line has since dropped to +3 despite only 39% backing OSU.
Week 13 CFB Line Move Plays: OSU Beavers +3 (won 34-24).
Week 12: (11/15 through 11/19) UMass opened as +30 road dogs at BYU. The line has since dropped to +28.5 despite only 38% on UMass. Tulane opened as +15.5 dogs to Temple. The line has since dropped to 14.5 despite only 36% backing the Green Wave. Notre Dame opened as -1 home favs vs. Va. Tech. The line has gone up to -2 at most books and -2.5 at others, while only 43% are backing the Fighting Irish. Note: We erroneously posted last week's Troy winner as a loss. This has been fix and our record updated.
Week 12 College Football Line Move Picks: UMass +28.5 (lost 9-51), Tulane +14.5 (lost 0-31), Notre Dame -2 (lost 31-34).
Week 11: (11/8 through 11/12) BC opened at +21 went down to 20.5 despite only 35% backing them. Troy opened as a pick'em and has moved to -1.5 despite only 41% betting on them
Week 11 College Football Line Move Plays: BC +21 (1/2 point buy, -120)(lost 7-45), Troy -1.5 (won 28-24).
Week 10: (11/1 through 11/5) Kansas St. opened up as -1.5 home favs vs. Okie St. The line is up to -2.5 (3 at some books) despite only 41% backing the Cats. The TCU Horned Froges opened up as +10 road dogs at Baylor. The line has dropped to +7.5 despite only 40% backing Texas Christian.
Week 10 College Football Line Move Plays: K-State -2.5 (lost 37-43), TCU +7.5 (won 62-22).
Week 9: (10/27 through 10/29) Utah St. (Fri game) opened as +6.5 home favorites. The line has since dropped to +4.5 despite only 29% backing UTSU. The Texas Longhorns opened up as +2.5 home dogs to Baylor. The line has gone up to +3.5 which is public driven because Baylor is getting one-sided.
Week 9 College Football Line Move Plays: Utah St. +4.5 (lost 14-40), Texas +3.5 (won 35-34).
Week 8: (10/20 through 10/22) LSU is taking around 40% of the public action, but we’ve seen the line move from LSU -4.5 to -7.5.
Week 8 CFB Line Move Plays: LSU -7.5 (won 38-21).
Week 7: (10/12 through 10/15) The Rutgers Scarlet Knights opened up as +6 home underdogs to Illinois. The line has since dropped to +4.5 despite only 30% backing Rutgers.
Week 7 CFB Line Move Plays: Rutgers +4.5 (lost 7-24).
Week 6: (10/5 through 10/8) The Virginia Tech Hokies opened as +3.5 road dogs at North Carolina. The line has since dropped to +1.5 despite Va. Tech only receiving 32% of the action.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: Virginia Tech +1.5 (won 34-3).
Week 5:(9/29 through 10/1) The UNLV Runnin' Rebels opened up as -7 home favs. to Fresno State. The line has since shop up to -9.5 despite only 40% backing Nevada Las Vegas. Eastern Michigan opened up as +4.5 road dogs at Bowling Green. The line has dropped to +2 despite only 41% betting EMU.
Week 5 CFB Line Move Plays: UNLV -9.5 (won 45-20), Eastern Michigan +2 (won 28-25).
Week 4: (9/22 through 9/24) The Colorado Buffs opened up as +11.5 road dogs at Oregon. The line has since dropped to +10 despite only a third of all bettors backing the Buffaloes. Texas State opened up as +34.5 dog to Houston. The line has dropped a point despite a paltry 24% backing TSU. The Oregon State Beavers opened up as +14.5 home dogs to an overrated Boise St. team. The point spread has dropped to +13.5 despite only 38% backing the Beavs.
Wee 4 NCAA Football Line Move Plays: Colorado +10 (won 41-38), Texas St +33.5 (lost 3-64), Oregon St. +13.5 (lost 24-38).
Week 3: (9/15 through 9/17) The Colorado Buffaloes opened at +20 at Michigan and have dropped to +17.5 despite only 37% backing Col. The UNLV Rebels opened up at +13 and have dropped to +11 despite only 36% backing them.
Week 3 CFB Line Move Plays: Colorado +17.5 (won 28-45), UNLV +11 (lost 21-44).
Week 2: (9/9 through 9/10) The UNLV Runnin' Rebels opened up as +27 road dogs at UCLA. The line has gone down to 26 despite Nevada-Las Vegas only receiving 32% of the action. UNLV is much improved this year.
Week 2 College Football Line Move Plays: UNLV +26 (won 21-42)
Week 1: (9/1 through 9/5) Army opened at +19 and has moved down to +14.5 despite only receiving a meager 37% of the action at the betting windows.
Week 1 College Football Line Move Plays: Army +14.5 (won 28-13).
Week 14: (12/4 through 12/5) New Mexico State opened as +3 road dogs at UL Monroe. The line has moved 5.5 points, now making New Mex. St. the favorite. UL Monroe is down to their 3rd string QB who is horrible. Nice value here.
Week 14 College Football Line Move Plays: New Mexico St. -2.5 (lost).
Week 13: (11/24 through 11/28) The Wyoming Cowboys opened as +3 home dogs to UNLV. The line has dropped to +2 despite only 33% backing Wyo. The NC State Wolfpack opened as touchdown underdogs at home vs. UNC. The line has dropped to +4 despite only a meager 28% backing NCST..
Week 13 NCAA Football Line Move Plays: Wyomning +2 (win) and NC State +4 (loss).
Week 12: (11/17 through 11/21) Louisville opened up as +2.5 underdogs @Pitt and have gone down to +1 despite only 39% playing them. The Ohio St. Buckeyes opened as -13 home favs vs. Mich St. The line has gone up to -14 despite the Buckeyes only receiving a meager 27% of the action. Get this quick as we anticipate the line going up as high as -16.5 prior to kickoff. The Cal Bears opened up as +12 road dogs at Stanford. The line has since gone down to +10.5 despite only 43% backing the Bears. Illinois opened as +5,5 road dogs at Minnesota. The line has gone down to +5 despite the Fighting Illini only receiving 33% of the bets.
Week 12 College Football Line Move Plays: Louisville +1 (loss), Ohio St. -14 (loss), Cal +10.5 (loss) and Illinois +5 (loss).
Week 11: (11/10 through 11/14) The Maryland Terrapins opened up as +18 underdogs at Mich St. The line has dropped to +14.5 despite only 31% backing MD. NW opened up as -13 home favs vs. Purdue and have jumped to -14.5 despite only 35% backing the Wildcats. The Ark/LSU total opened at 56 and has gone down to 54 despite only 40% backing the UNDER. Cinci opened as -16 home favs vs. Tulsa. The line has gone up to -18 despite only 41% backing the Bearcats.
Week 11 College Football Line Move Picks: Maryland +14.5 (loss), Northwestern -14.5 (loss), Ark/LSU UNDER 54 (win), Cinci -18 (loss).
Week 10: (11/3 through 11/7) The SMU Mustants opened up as +14 home underdogs to Temple. The line has dropped ot SMU +12 despite only 28% backing them. The Washington Huskies opened up as -1 favorites at home vs. Utah. The line has moved up to -1.5 despite only 34% backing Wash.
Week 10 CFB Line Move Plays: Washington Huskies -1.5 (loss), SMU Mustangs +12 (loss).
Week 9: (10/29 through 10/31) Wyoming opened as +28 underdogs at Utah St. The line has dropped to +25.5 and is a value play all the way down to +24. Rice opened as +13 home dogs to Louisana Tech. The line has since moved down to +10.5 despite ony 40% backing the Owls. The Oregon St/Utah total opened at 56 and has moved down to 54 despite a paltry 33% backing the under. UMass opened as +3 road dogs at Ball St. The line has dropped to a pick'em despite only 41% backing the Minutemen. Duke opened as -7 home favs. vs. Miami. The line has jetted way up to -13. Canes QB Brad Kaaya is OUT and his backup is horrible.
Week 9 College Football Line Move Plays: Wyoming +25.5 (loss), Rice +10.5 (loss), OSU/Utah UNDER 54 (win), UMass pick'em (loss), Duke -13 (loss).
Week 8: (10/20 through 10/24) Army opened up as +11 road dogs at Rice. The line has dropped to +7 despite only 33% backing Army.
Week 8 CFB Line Move Plays: Army +7 (push)
Week 7: (10/13 through 10/17) South Alabama opened as +6 home dogs against Arkansas St. The line has since dropped to +4 despite only 40% backing South Alabama. Fla. Atlantic opened up as +6.5 home dogs to Marshall. The line has plummeted to +3.5 despite only 27% backing the Owls. Virginia Tech opened as +6 road dogs to Miami. The line has since dropped to +3 despite only 38% backing the Hokies. The Michigan Wolverines opened as -6.5 home favs. vs. Mich. St. The line has gone up a half point to -7 despite only 36% backing Mich. Az. St. opened as +6.5 road dogs at Utah. The line has dropped to +6 despite only 36% on the Sun Devils.
Week 7 College Football Line Move Plays: S. Alabama +4 (loss), Florida Atlantic +3.5 (loss), Va. Tech +3 (loss), Michigan -7 (loss), Arizona St. +6 (loss).
Week 6: (10/8 through 10/10) Nebraska opened as a pick'em at home vs. Wisky. The Huskers have moved to -1.5 despite only 36% backing them. Middle Tenn. St. opened as +10 road dogs at Western Kentucky. The line has dropped ot +8.5 despite only 44% backing MTSU. Troy opened as +31 road dogs at Mississippi St. The line has dropped to +30.5 despite only 40% betting Troy.
Week 6 College Football Line Move Plays: Nebraska -1.5 (loss), Middle Tennessee St. +8.5 (loss), Troy +30.5 (win).
Week 5: (10/1 through 10/3) The Penn State Nittany Lions opened up as -24 home favs. vs. Army. The line has since gone up to -25.5 despite only 35% backing PSU. The Iowa Hawkes opened as +8.5 road dogs to Wisc. The line has since dropped to +6 despite only 40% backing the Hawkeyes. The Arizona St. Sun Devils opened up as +14 road dogs at UCLA. The line has dropped to +13 despite onliy 37% backing ASU.
Week 5 NCAA Football Line Move Plays: Penn St. -25.5 (loss), Iowa Hawkeyes +6 (win), Arizona St. +13 (win).
Week 4: (9/24 through 9/26) The Bowling Green Falcons opened up as 2 point road dogs at Purdue. The line has moved 5.5 points, now making BGSU -3.5 favs. BG is much imrpoved and Purdue has problems scoring the ball. We're not real excited that the public is backing the Falcons as well, but it is what it is. The Ohio Bobcats opened up as +11 road dogs at Minnesota. The line has dropped to +10 despite only 42% backing Ohio. It wouldn't surprise us if the Bobcats won this game straight up. The Texas Tech Red Raiders opened up as + 7 home dogs to TCU. The line has dropped to +5.5 despite T.T. only receiving 42% of the action. Middle Tenn. St. opened as +5.5 road dogs at Illinois. The line has dropped to +4 despite only 44% backing MTSU. Mid. Ten. St. is one of the better teams in college football that most haven ever heard of.
Week 4 Line Move Plays: Bowling Green -3.5 (win), Ohio +10 (win), Texas Tech +5.5 (win), Middle Tennessee St. +4 (win).
Week 3: (9/17 through 9/21) Troy opened as +35 road dogs at Wisconsin. The line has dropped a half point despite a meager 21% backing Troy. Troy isn't a great team by any means, but they CAN score, don't turn the ball over much and historically, favorites over 32 points cover at around a 33% clip. We'll take our chances here.
Week 3 CFB Line Move Plays: Troy +34.5 (win).
Week 2: (9/10 through 9/12) The Michigan St. Spartans opened as -2.5 home favs vs. the Oregon Ducks. The line has gone up to -4 despite the game receiving even action. Seeing EWU put up a fair amount of points on the Ducks at Autzen Stadium last week is cause for concern. Miami Ohio opened up as +33 road dogs at Wisconsin. The line has since dropped to +31.5 despite Mia. Ohio receiving only 31% backing from the public. UTSA opened as +20 home underdogs to Kansas St. The line has dropped all the way to +16.5 despite only 39% of the public backing them.
Week 2 Line Move Plays: Michigan State -4 (loss), Miami Ohio +31.5 (loss), UTSA +17 (1/2 pt buy -120)(loss).
Week 1: (9/3 through 9/7) Georgia Southern opened up as +19 underdogs at West Virginia. The line has since been bet down to +17.5, despite only 36% of the public backing them. Making this move even more eye-opening, is that Ga. Southern starting QB Ellison will miss the first 2 games of the season with academic issues. Second stringer Upshaw is no slouch, as he got quite a bit of playing time last season. It wouldn't surprise us to see Ga. Southern win this game straight up, albeit not likely. Oddsmakers are conveniently keeping the hook on the 17 for themselves as 17 is a key number (common final score margin) in college football.
Week 1 Line Move Plays: Georgia Southern +17.5 (loss)
12/20/14: The Colorado St. Rams opened up as +4.5 underdogs to Utah. The line has dropped to +2.5 despite only 37% backing CSU. (loss)
Week 16: (12/13) Passing.
Week 15: (12/4 through 12/6) Tulane opened up as +3.5 underdogs and have moved to +2.5 despite only 31% backing them. Temple has a very high turnover rate in their last handful of road games. This is probably one of those games you won't want to watch because it ain't gonna be pretty, but Tulane should pull it out.
Week 15 Line Move Plays: Tulane +3 (buying a half point at -130)(loss)
Week 14: (11/25 through 11/29): North Texas opened as +5.5 road dogs at Texas San Antonio and have been bet down to as low as 5 despite receiving only 42% of the action. Rutgers opened up as +9 road dogs at Maryland and have dropped to +8 despite only 35% of the public backing them.
Week 14 College Football Line Move Plays: North Texas +4 (loss), Rutgers +8 (win).
Week 13: (11/18 through 11/22) The Ohio Bobcats opened up as +4 home underdogs to Northern Illinois. The line has dropped to +2.5 despite Ohio only receiving a paltry 24% of the action. With NIU being a running team and Ohio having a stout run, freezing cold weather and NIU potentially looking ahead to next week's big game, this is the perfect storm for Ohio to pull out a win here. UNC opened up as +6.5 road dogs at Duke. The line has gone down to +5 despite only 36% backing the Blue Devils. The Purdue Boilermakers opened as 3 point home underdogs and the line has moved to Purdue being favorited by -1 despite only 40% backing them.
Week 13 College Football Line Move Plays: Ohio Bobcats +2.5 (loss), UNC +5 (win) and Purdue Boilermakers -1 (loss).
Week 12: (11/11 through 11/15) The Missouri Tigers opened up as +5.5 road dogs at Texas A&M. The line has come down to +4 despite only 43% backing Mizzou. The Alabama Crimson Tide opened up as -7 point home favs vs. number one ranked MSU. The line has shot up to -10 despite only 34% backing the Tide. We're calling for a blowout here.
Week 12 College Football Line Move Plays: Missouri Tigers +4 (win) and Alabama Crimson Tide -10 (loss).
Week 11: (11/4 through 11/8) The Texas Longhorns opened up as +4 home underdogs vs. the West Virginia Mountaineers. The line has since dropped to +3 despite only 29% backing the Horns. The Oklahoma Sooners opened up as -4 home favs. vs. Baylor. The Sooners have gone up to -5.5 despite only 36% backing them.
Week 11 College Football Line Move Plays: Texas +3 (win) and Oklahoma -5.5 (loss).
Week 10: (10/30 through 11/1) Middle Tenn. opened up as +7 home underdogs vs. BYU. The line has dropped to +3.5 despite only 38% backing Mid Tenn. Those familiar with Brigham Young have figured out that the team is a one trick pony now that Taysom Hill is gone. The Tennessee Vols opened up as +8 underdogs to South Carolina and the line has dropped to +7 despite only 38% backing the Vols. Many saw the Gamecocks put up a good showing vs. Auburn last week and are led to believe that USC is a good team, or has rebounded from their slow start. We believe they come out flat and would go as far to say that the Volunteers have a good shot of winning this game straight up. UCLA opened up as -4.5 home favs vs. Arizona and the line has shot up to -6.5 only 37% backing the Bruins. The thinking here is that the Wildcats are overrated while UCLA is underrated. West Virginia opened up as +5 home underdogs to a red hot TCU team. The line has dropped to +4 despite only 41% backing the WVU. Lastly, we're fading a line move as Hawaii opened up as +2 underdogs at home vs. a beat up Utah State team and the line has moved up to 3. The Aggies are down to their 4th strong QB who has very little experience. Hawaii is a miserably bad team but they're in a great position to get a win here.
Week 10 College Football Line Move Plays: Middle Tennessee +3.5 (loss), Tennessee Vols +7 (win), UCLA Bruins -6.5 (win), West Virginia Mountaineers +4 (win), Hawaii +3 (loss).
Week 9: (10/21 through 10/25) UNLV opened up as +18 underdogs and have moved down to +17.5 at most sportsbooks and as low as +17 at others, despite receiving only 38% of the action. We expect the line to drop more on gameday as well. Utah State will be starting their third string QB, who had been on the scout team prior to the start of the season. He's a Juco transfer and has had some pretty weak numbers. We're projecting him to only complete 50% of his passes or less, despite the opponent being a weak UNLV team. This game won't come easy, but there's some good value here. The Auburn Tigers opened as -17 point home favorites against South Carolina. The line has jetted up to -19.5 despite only 43% backing the Tigers. USC's defense is putrid. We like the Tigers to blowout the Gamecocks Saturday!
Week 9 College Football Line Move Plays: UNLV +17.5 (win) and Auburn -19.5 (loss).
Week 8: (10/16 through 10/18) The Houston Cougars opened up as -6.5 home favorites vs. the Temple Owls. The line has moved up to -9.5 despite only 38% backing the Cougars. Weak cougars QB O'Korn has been replaced which should make a huge difference for the offensive attack. The Maryland Terrapins opened up as -3 home vs. vs. Iowa. The line has gone up to -5 despite only 41% backing the Terps. Bama, who hasn't been covering games, opened up as a -12 home fav. vs. Texas A&M. The line has gone up to -14 despite only 39% backing the Tide. Boston College opened up as +7 home underdogs to Clemson and the line has moved down to +5 despite only 38% backing the Eagles. Clemson's starting QB is hurt and will be replaced by a somewhat ineffective Stoudt. We have BC winning this game straight up. Miami Ohio opened up as +14 road dogs at Northern Illinois. The line has dropped a half point despite only a meager 32% backing the Redhawks. The key here is that Miami-Ohio is strong with the pass and NIU has problems defending it. This SHOULD be a close game.
Week 8 College Football Line Move Plays: Houston -9.5 (win), Maryland -5 (win), Alabama -14 (win), Boston College +5 (win), Miami Ohio +13.5 (win).
Week 7: (10/9 through 10/11) The Minnesota Golden Gophers opened up as -2.5 home favs vs. Northwestern. The line has shot up to -3.5 and even -4 at some betting shops despite the Golden Gophers only receiving 42% of the action.
Week 7 Line Move Plays: Minnesota -3.5 (win).
Week 6: (10/2 through 10/4) I'm not one to complain about losses but Utah being up 21-0 in the first quarter and losing straight up was disgusting! Now that I've got that off my chest let's get on with Week 6 action! The Arizona Wildcats opened up as +22.5 underdogs at Oregon. The line shot up to +24 and is currently +21.5 a few hours prior to gametime. We waited on this one hoping to get a fat line of around 27 but it didn't happen. Arizona matches up real well with Oregon and the Ducks offensive line is weak. This is simply too many points to be laying vs. this particular team (Arizona), which is not good, but servicable in this spot. Arkansas State opened up as -9.5 home favorites vs. UL Monroe. The ULM Warhawks are 3-1 which may be getting them some underserved respect. When you look at the teams they've beat, they include Wake Forest, Idaho and Troy. Ark. St. on the other hand, has played some stiff competition this year in Tennessee, Miami and Utah St. The Red Wolves also get their top RB Michael Gordon back from injury. Sometimes win-loss records can be deceiving. I'm expecting Arkansas St. to win by 2 TD's or more. The Stanford Cardinal opened up as -1.5 favs on the road at ND. The line has moved to -2.5 despite only 41% backing the Cardinal. It's rare that we'd base a game prediction on any particular offensive player, but in this case we don't think they have an answer for Stanford WR Ty Montgomery. This game is likely to be close throughout and very stressful but we expect Stanford to sneak out the cover. The Kentucky Wildcats opened up as huge +7 home favs. to South Carolina. The line has been bet down to +3.5 despite only 36^ backing the Wildcats. South Carolina has problems on defense where they go into a complete lapse at times. This isn't the strongest of plays, but we believe there's value there and give it a 55% chance of covering the spread.
Week 6 College Football Line Move Plays: Arizona Wildcats +21.5 (win), Arkansas State -12 (win), Stanford -2.5 (loss), Kentucky +3.5 (win).
Week 5: (9/25 through 9/27) The Utah Utes opened up as -10 favs at home vs. the Washington St. Cougars. The line has jetted to -13.5 and for good reason. WSU is weak on the road and will be playing into the strength of Utah which is their pass defense. WSU can't run the ball either. Look for the Utes to pressure the heck out of QB Halladay and for him to throw a bunch of INT's and cough it up as well. We're projecting Utah to win by 3+ TD's. Western Michigan opened up as +25 road dogs and have been bet down to +21 despite only receiving 34% of the public's liking. It's just too many points. UTEP opened up as +30 road dogs at Kansas St. and the line has dropped to +28 despite only 40% backing Texas El Paso. This is a sandwich game for K-State coming off a loss to Auburn and looking ahead to Texas Tech. Utah opened up as -10 home favs vs. Washington State. The line has moved up to -13.5 and for good reason! Utah is one of the most underrated teams in the country. WSU can't run the ball and will be playing into the strength of the Utes which is their pass defense. Expect Utah's special teams and pass rush to shine as well. We're expecting Utah to score 40+ and WSU 20 or less. Indiana opened up as -2.5 home favorites vs. Maryland. The line has jumped ot -4 despite only 36% backing the Hoosiers. Neither of these teams are likely to slow each other down either, so we like the OVER 70, which originally opened at 66.
Week 5 Line Move Plays: Utah -13.5 (loss), Western Michigan +21 (win), UTEP +28 (win), Utah -13.5 (loss), Indiana -4 (loss), Maryland/Indiana OVER 70 (loss).
Week 4: (9/18 through 9/20) The Auburn Tigers opened up as -8 point road favs at Kansas St. The line has since dropped to +7 despite only 40% on the Wildcats. Tulane opened up as +18 road dogs at Duke and have been bet down to +17 despite only receiving a meager 28% of the public's backing. Georgia St. opened up as +36.5 road dogs at Washington. The line has dropped a couple points to 34.5despite only 41% backing Ga. St. Washington runs the ball a TON. We believe this number is too big and the clock will prevent Wash. cover. Ga. State can score it too, although they'll be badly outclassed by the bigger school from a much stronger conference. It is not recommended that you watch this game as you'll surely suffer through stroke symptoms and get diarrhea! In other words, this probably isn't going to come easy but Ga. St. SHOULD cover. Appalachian State opened up as +4 dogs to Southern Miss. and the line has dropped all the way to +1 despite only 35% backing Appl. St. Georgia Southern opened up as +2.5 road dogs at Southern Alabama. The line has moved 5.5 making Ga. Southern the fav and for good reason! This team is good and has stood tall vs. much larger schools. And now for our strongest play of the day... Arkansas State opened up as +3 home dogs to Utah St. The line has moved 4.5 points making Ark. St. the favorite. Utah St. will be missing their stud QB Chuckie Keeton and is always a much weaker team on the road than at home. Ark. State is an interesting team with a good coaching staff. It wouldn't surprise us a bit to see Ark. St. win by double digits here.
Week 4 College Football Line Move Plays: Kansas St. +7 (win), Tulane +17 (loss), Georgia St. +34.5 (win), Appalachian St. +1 (push), Georgia Southern -3 (win), Arkansas St. -1.5 (win).
Week 3: (9/11 through 9/13) Old Dominion opened up as -14 home favs vs. a pitiful Eastern Michigan team. The line has shot up to -18.5 which is the result of both sharp and square action. Georgia Southern opened up as +22 road dogs at Ga. Tech. The line instantly shot down to +17.5 and has dropped to +17 All this despite only 41% backing Georgia Southern. It may drop more as well. The Virginia Cavaliers opened up as +7 home dogs to Louisville and the line has dropped to +6.5 despite only 32% backing the Cavs. The UL Monroe/LSU total opened up at 52. It has since been bet down to 50.5 despite the over being hammered to the tune of over 64%. Texas State opened up as +12.5 home dogs to Navy. The line has dropped all the way to +9.5 with only 32% backing Tex. St.
Week 3 College Football Line Move Plays: Old Dominion -18.5 (loss), Georgia Southern +17.5 (buy a half point to +17.5 (win), UL Monroe/LSU UNDER 50.5 (win), Texas State +10 (1/2 pt buy -120)(loss).
Week 2: (9/4 through 9/6) The Nevada Wolfpack opened up at a pick'em vs. the WSU Cougars. The line has moved up to -3 in favor of Washington State. The public are hammering the Cougs to the tune of 65%. We're fading the line move here as the Cougs don't look like they can stop anybody, they don't play well on the road and Nevada almost always hangs in at home, regardless of who the opponent is. Some nice value here at +3. BYU opened up as +4 underdogs. The line has moved 5 points on news that Texas QB David Ash won't be starting. Even more importantly, the Longhorns will be without their Center which is a huge position in football (timing issues). Florida Atlantic opened up as +40 point underdogs. The line went up to 41 and was bet back down to 39.5 and is back to 40. Bama will surely rout FAU but will do so keeping the ball on the ground. There just isn't enough clock to cover this number. FAU QB Jaquez Johnson is a great athlete. If the Owls can score once, which I believe they will, this will be an easy cover. The Toledo Rockets opened up as +6 point home underdogs vs. Missouri. The line has dropped down to +3.5 despite the Rockets only receiving 24% of the pubic's action. South Alabama opened at a picke'm and has moved to -3. Avoid this play if the line goes any further north of 3. The Oregon Ducks opened as -11.5 home favs. vs. a very good Mich. St. team. The line has gone up to -13, despite only 37% backing the Ducks. Between Oregon's offense being so dynamic and the insane home field advantage of Autzen Stadium (It's loud as hell there), I expect MSU to hang tough in the first half and wear down in the 2nd half where Oregon pulls away and wins by 17+. Middle Tenn. St. opened up as +17.5 road dogs at Minnesota. The line has crossed the key number of 17 and gone down to +16. There's huge value here as Minnesota shouldn't be laying this many to any decent team, which MTSU is. One might consider buying a point to make this line +17. No joke, 17 is a key number (common margin) in college football games. Colorado St. opened up as +10.5 dogs on the road at Boise St. The line has dropped to +9. Boise St. isn't as good as many think and CSU isn't as bad as many think. Boise St. may very well win this game but we don't see it being by more than a touchdown. Hawaii opened up as +12.5 home underdogs to Oregon St. The line has dropped to +9.5 despite only receiving 35% of the action at the betting windows. Oregon State is far superior and may very well blow out the Warriors as Hawaii's secondary is weak. If this game was played 100x, we feel that Hawaii would cover 55-57 of them, hence why this is a play. If you've ever made that long flight to Hawaii, you'd know what a weird effect the flight, being there and playing in a game has on your body. It's unexplainable unless you've experienced it, hence why good teams go over there and perform crappy often!.
Week 2 Line Move Plays: Nevada +3 (win), BYU Cougars -1 (win), FAU +40 (canceled), Toledo +3.5 (loss), South Bama -3 (win), Oregon -13 (win), Middle Tennessee St. +17 (buying a point: -130 odds)(win), Colorado St. +9 (loss), Hawaii +9.5 (win).
Week 1: (8/28 through 9/1) Florida Atlantic opened as +23.5 underdogs @ Nebraska and have been bet down to +21.5 despite only 21% of the public backing them. This will be our only Week 1 line move play. We prefer to sit back and watch how all the teams do and what their tendencies are before making picks. No rush! No need to force the action as there's always another game!
Week 1 Line Move Plays: Florida Atlantic +21.5 (loss).
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
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Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!