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LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Odds - Prediction

No. 19 LSU Tigers (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Saturday November 12th, 2016. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium Fayetteville, A.R.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: LSU -7/ARK +7
Over/Under Total: 46

The no. 19 LSU Tigers put up a valiant effort against no. 1 Alabama last week in a heavily anticipated showdown on the Bayou. The Tigers held one of the nationís best offenses scoreless for 3 quarters. However, the Tigers strong defensive effort was voided due to the own struggles of the LSU offense that was shutout in a 10-0 loss to the Crimson Tide. Before last weekís game, the Tigers had built a lot of momentum under interim Coach Ed Orgeron that had seemingly salvaged a season that went sour after a 2-2 start under former Head Coach Les Miles. This Saturday LSU will try to right the ship once again and bounce back with a strong effort as they go on the road to play the Arkansas Razorbacks.

I personally think this is a scary spot for the Tigers following last weekís tough loss against Alabama. Not only will LSU be trying to recover emotionally from so much energy that went into that game but a lot of offensive woes resurfaced in that loss last week as well. The Tigers offense was the forefront of the issues that caused Les Miles to get canned after a 2-2 start. Orgeron had done a good job of revamping the offense in the games that following as the Tigers averaged more than 40 points per game against Missouri, Southern Miss, and Mississippi. However, the offense was thwarted by the Alabama defense to the tune of just 125 total yards and quarterback Danny Etling appeared like a lost soul for 60 minutes of play.

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The major question I have this week is can LSU recover offensively? I have never been really sold on Etling or any LSU quarterback for the last decade for that matter. However, the Tigers still have an extremely talented defense and a great rushing offense that can be leaned on heavily Saturday night. The Arkansas defense has not been typically good against the run. The Razorbacks have ranked 91st in total rushing defense yielding just less than 200 yards per game. Additionally, they have one of the worst marks in the FBS when it comes to yard per rush as they have allowed 6.12 yards per attempt to opposing offenses.

Those statistics should provide positive hopes for LSUís rushing attack that has some of the most talented rushers in the country in their backfield. Before being stuffed by Alabama, Leonard Fournette had averaged 167 yards per game on the ground in his 4 starts on the season. Obviously Fournette has been slowed by injuries this season but when he has been great when he has played. Fournette will be a go this Saturday and so will fellow running back Derrius Guice who leads the team with 7 touchdowns on the ground this season and has averaged nearly 8 yards per carry. Look for both of those guys to get plenty of work on offense.

I think this game will largely be decided by LSUís ability to run the football. If Arkansas stops the run, I have little faith that LSU can throw the ball effectively enough in this game to score points despite having one of the better defenses in the FBS. Speaking of that defense, Arkansas will have the luxury of trying to foil that Tigers defense this weekend. Quarterback Austin Allen has been pretty solid this year completing 61.8% passing with 19 scores and just 8 picks. However, we did see last week how disrupting this LSU defense can be when they get pressure on the quarterback. So not only does Allen have to remain his composure but running back Rawleigh Williams III will need to get some good gains on the ground to keep this defense guessing. Overall it should be a great chess match on both sides of the ball.

Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like the under 46 in this game in a big way. I think LSUís defense has potential shutdown potential against Arkansasís offense and I am not confident LSU will have a ton of scoring possibilities either even if they have success running the football. Take the under 46!

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NCAA Football Week 5 Betting Previews

Here are some additional game previews from this week's college football card.

Free Picks

Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!

Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.

Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.

Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.

College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.

Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.

Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.

2017/2018 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2018 National Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 8th.

2017 Heisman Trophy Predictions - USC QB Sam Darnold is a heavy pre-season favorite to win college football's most coveted award, but Jay isn't buying it. In fact, he's passing up the top (3) favored players in favor of a QB who he's confident will be NCAA football's best player in 2017.

2017-2018 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the Alabama Crimson Tide running away with the National Championship this season and who can blame them? Roll Tide is LOADED! It never happens that easy though. The USC Trojans (+825), Florida St. Seminoles (+850) and Ohio St. Buckckeyes (+875) all have a legit shot. Oddsmakers have Oklahoma (+1300) on the bubble and everybody looking from the outside in at 20/1 or higher. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!

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Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - USC QB Sam Darnold starts the season off as a heavy favorite at +350 odds. Sooners QB Baker Mayfield is second on the list at +700 but can he keep his nose clean? Louisville QB Lamar Jackson should dominate this season but will Louisville be taken seriously? Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman is worth a pop at 60/1 if he gets the carries. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. But will they throw the ball enough with a QB who likes to run? Missing from this year's list of odds is a defensive player.

Odds to Win the 2017 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are heavy favorites to win the National Championship this year at 5/2 followed by Ohio St. at 13/5, USC at 7/1 and FSU at 17/2. Things drop off a bit with the Oklahoma Sooners coming in at 12/1, Auburn Tigers at 14/1 and Michigan Wolverines at 16/1. Check out your favorite school's odds here!

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