No. 25 LSU Tigers (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time: Thursday November 24th, 2016. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Kyle Field College Station, T.X.
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: LSU -5.5/A&M +5.5
Over/Under Total: TBA
On Thursday night, the SEC will take center stage for some more entertaining Thanksgiving Day football action when the no. 25 LSU Tigers travel into College Station for a regular season finale with the no. 22 Texas A&M Aggies. With this weekendís slate of high profile rivalries vastly approaching, this Thursday nightís game featuring two SEC West foes will be a perfect ice breaker for rivalry weekend. Ever since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012, this season finale against LSU has been blossoming into an entertaining new SEC rivalry. However, the Aggies have yet to beat the Tigers since joining the SEC and that is a must for this sprouting rivalry to gain some national notoriety.
LSU has won the last 5 meetings against Texas A&M including a Cotton Bowl victory back in 2011. For the Tigers to add to that winning streak this Thursday, they will have to shake off some bad vibes and negative momentum. Last week, LSU suffered an upset loss to Florida at home as 13.5 point favorites. Running back Derrius Guice was actually denied from the 1 yard line in the final seconds of the game as the Gators came away with a game winning defensive stand. The defeat marked the 2nd for LSU in the last 3 games as they now appear to be fading from their mid-season spark that was brought on by interim Coach Ed Orgeron.
If the Tigers fail to right the ship on Thursday, it will mark their worse regular season record since their 3-8 SU campaign all the way back in 1999. The good news for LSU fans is that odds makers have felt confident enough to list the Tigers as 5.5 favorites to rebound this week against the 25th ranked Aggies. I believe the reason the Aggies will be underdogs at home this weekend are rather simple. Texas A&M has also lost 2 of their last 3 games SU and lost their last 3 games against SEC opponents. The Aggies would also fall into that late season ďfadingĒ category which has unfortunately been all too common under Head Coach Kevin Sumlin.
The question this weekend is who can shake off the bad vibes and end the season on a positive note? The Aggies have been very competitive despite the losses. They lost to Ole Miss 29-28 and suffered another one score loss to Mississippi State. I would like to blame the defense for those troubles but they just have not been as sharp on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. However, the defense has still relinquished point totals of 38, 33, 35, and 28 in their last 4 games against SEC opponents. We have seen LSUís offensive struggles return in recent weeks that plagued the team earlier in the year under former Coach Les Miles. Will this be LSUís opportunity to right the ship against a struggling defense or will the Aggiesí defense take advantage of those struggles?
From a matchup standpoint, I think both defenses will have the upper hand in this game. Despite the loss last week, LSUís defense still played great against Florida. The Aggies will spread this LSU defense out a bit more especially with Jake Hubenak now behind center. Hubenak has proven to be a better down the field thrower than Trevor Knight which has benefited wide outs Josh Reynolds and Christian Kirk. I do not think the Aggies can win this game by running the ball between the tackles with Trayveon Williams and I think they are going to have a pretty difficult go at it no matter how they attack on offense.
Of course that does not mean that Texas A&M can still not pull out the victory. I am not ruling out that possibility with LSUís anemic offense. In the Tigerís 4 losses this year, they have not scored more than 14 points in any of those games. The reason is pretty simple because the Tigers have not been consistent enough in the passing game with quarterback Danny Etling and they have not had the elite rushing attack that most people anticipated. The Tigers rushing offense is still pretty good. I mean they have two of the best tandem rushing combos in the conference in Derrius Guice and Leonard Fournette. However, they need more wrinkles and success passing the football to get this Aggies defense off the line of scrimmage to get the offense back in motion this Thursday.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Despite the LSU offenseís troubles, I think their defense is the story here. LSUís secondary is elite and the Aggies will not find success throwing the football. Take LSU -5.5 in a low scoring game.
Bet your pick at an online sportsbook where you can bet on games at -105 odds instead of the more expensive -110 price tag that your bookie is sticking you with! Making the switch to betting at discounted odds will save you TONS of cash! Find this great offer as well as 20 point teasers and parlays up to 25 teams at the web's best bookmaker: 5Dimes.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!