No. 1 LSU Tigers (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS), Monday January 9th, 2012. 8:30PM EST. Allstate BCS National Championship Game, Superdome New Orleans, L.A.
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Louisiana St. Tigers -1/Bama +1
Over/Under Total: 39.5
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The BCS may have caused some late season controversy again but, like it or not, the two best teams in the country will square off for the AllState BCS National Championship when the no. 1 LSU Tigers meet the no. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide inside the Superdome in New Orleans. Earlier this season the Tigers and the Crimson Tide met in a colossal showdown that was labeled "The Game of the Century" as both teams were clearly the two best teams in the country.
Of course the Tigers pulled out a thrilling 9-6 overtime victory in that game and then marched on to win the SEC Championship while recording their first 13-0 start in school history. In fact, LSU could go down as one of the greatest teams in college football history if you examine their resume for 2011. The Tigers knocked off an NCAA record 8 top 25 opponents this season while also conquering 3 different opponents ranked inside the top 3 teams in the nation. Clearly LSU has earned their trip to New Orleans and are now just 1 game away from having the ultimate "dream" season.
Outside of LSU's unanimous number 1 ranking, there were a lot of people who were upset when Alabama received the vote to go to the BCS National Championship Game after falling to the Tigers earlier this year. Albeit many of those people were SEC antagonists that were hoping that no. 3 Oklahoma State would get their chance at the title. However, it was too hard for voters to put Oklahoma State ahead of Alabama after losing to an Iowa State team that was just 5-4 prior to that meeting and among the worst teams in the Big 12. Plus how can you penalize the Crimson Tide for getting beat by the no. 1 team in the nation and in overtime nonetheless?
Therefore like I said before, the BCS got it right with this year's BCS National Championship Game match-up. Sure there will be some lingering animosity from other conferences and fan bases around the nation surrounding an SEC Conference rematch for the National Championship. However, I do have good news for those SEC "haters" out there. The good news is for the first time in the BCS era an SEC team will lose in the National Championship Game. However, the stone cold reality is that the SEC is on its way to take down their 6 straight BCS National Championship. As I have said multiple times here at Predictem.com, "the SEC is the conference that breeds National Champions."
Still, the million dollar question is who will prevail in this year's BCS National Championship Game? Even though LSU pulled out a 9-6 overtime winner earlier this year, many felt like Alabama outplayed the Tigers in that game. Even if that was the case, it has not stopped early bettors from backing LSU again. In fact, 65% of the betting public has backed the Tigers who are just 1 point favorites.
One thing that is certain is this should be another monumental slugfest on the gridiron. Both LSU and Alabama sport the top 2 defenses in the entire country. Alabama ranked 1st in nearly every major defensive category this season holding opponents to just 74 yards rushing, 191 yards overall, and just 8.88 points per game. LSU ranked 2nd in nearly every major defensive category holding opponents to just 85 yards rushing, 252 yards overall, and 10.54 points per game. As you can see by the numbers, both of these teams have a tremendous amount of talent on defense and touchdowns may be difficult to come by.
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Just as both defenses are very similar in the way they can dominate opposing offenses, both LSU and Alabama have more similarities on offense as well. Both groups run a power rushing style offense that emphasizes ball security. That formula normally does not result in a ton of points being scored hence the reason the total for this game is only listed at 39.5 which is very low for a college football game. Additionally, the betting public has favored the under total by nearly 85% through the first week of betting action for the BCS National Championship Game. The fear of another low scoring football game is why many people feared this LSU vs. Alabama rematch. However, if you ask me, this is smash mouth football at its finest.
In low scoring games, the big plays are normally the ultimate difference maker. Again, both LSU and Alabama have marquee names that will lead their teams to battle for the title game. The Crimson Tide found their offensive success on the heels of running back Trent Richardson this season. The Crimson Tide star tailback had a tremendous season racking up 1,583 yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground. Richardson's success earned him a trip to the big stage in New York as a prestigious Heisman Trophy Finalist. While Richardson did not win the coveted Heisman Trophy, he could still be the difference maker that captures then even more prestigious crystal ball for the National Title.
In the earlier meeting this year against that tenacious LSU defense, Richardson had a few big carries that seemingly put the momentum on the side of the Crimson Tide. However, the Alabama offense was never able to turn that momentum into touchdowns. Expect Richardson to be the primary weapon for the Crimson Tide offense again when they battle that dynamic LSU defense. Still, I think Richardson will need some help from the rest of the Alabama offense in order to get some touchdowns. The passing attack with QB A.J McCarron at the helm could provide that extra boost.
McCarron has played well this season completing 66% passing for 2,400 yards with 16 scores and 5 picks. McCarron has done just what the Alabama offense needed this season by protecting the football and effectively making passes when needed down the field. Therefore, if McCarron can complete some more of those passes down the field to leading WR Marquis Maze then perhaps the Crimson Tide offense can keep the LSU defense on their heels just enough to get the ball in the end zone.
On the other side of the field, LSU has a marquee player that is poised to be a difference maker in the National Championship Game as well by way of CB Tyrann the "Honey Badger" Mathieu. Mathieu won the Chuck Bednarik Award given annually to the nation's top defensive player. The "Honey Badger" also earned a trip to New York for the coveted Heisman Trophy award despite being suspended earlier this year with off the field issues. Still, you could make the argument that nobody had more "Heisman" moments than Mathieu.
In LSU's final two games of the season against no. 3 Arkansas and then in the SEC Championship against no. 14 Georgia, the Tigers trailed by at least 10 points early in those games. The difference was Mathieu. The "Honey Badger" returned two separate punt returns for touchdowns in both of those games that completely changed the momentum in favor of the Tigers in both instances. Mathieu also recorded another 47 yard punt return that nearly led to a 2nd touchdown in the SEC Championship against the Georgia. The dazzling 47 yard return ultimately put the dagger in the side of the Bulldogs chances for an upset over LSU. Or as the late Larry Munson would have put it "he just broke our hearts and crushed our dreams."
Outside of the punt returns, Mathieu also came away with a big fumble recovery at important times in both of those games as well. Therefore, don't be surprised if the "Honey Badger" has a few more big plays left in his bag that could possibly impact the outcome of the BCS National Championship Game.
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Still, the LSU offense will have to solve the riddle that is the Alabama defense. The Tigers managed just 239 total yards against Alabama earlier this year and only 91 total passing yards. QB Jordan Jefferson struggled in that game and the Tigers simply could not move the ball through the air. However, LSU was able to run the ball effectively against that tenacious Alabama defensive front and running the football is what the Tigers do best. LSU is a power rushing offense that wears defenses down through the course of a game.
Running backs Michael Ford and Spencer Ware can both get the job done on the ground. The two talented tailbacks have combined for just less than 1,500 rushing yards this season with 15 touchdowns. The Tigers put up 148 yards rushing on the ground against Alabama in the first meeting which is the most the Crimson Tide defense has given up all year. The Tigers must get some similar success on the ground again in order to keep the pressure of QB Jordan Jefferson.
Despite missing several games this season, Jefferson has been solid through the 2nd half of the season tossing 6 touchdowns with just 1 pick. Jefferson has a history of struggling under pressure so it will be critical that LSU keeps him in comfortable situations. If that happens, perhaps Jefferson can get the ball into the hands of star WR Rueben Randle who has racked up 904 yards and 8 scores on the season. A few big plays down the field in the passing game could be all the difference if this game turns into another defensive slugfest which many expect.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: One solid play here is the under 39.5 for those interested in throwing money at the total. There should be more scoring, but both defenses should still have the upper hand again just like they did in the first meeting. When it comes to handicapping the National Champion, I have watched both of these teams all year and I have to side with LSU. Remember I guaranteed a LSU blowout over Georgia in the SEC Championship and I am backing a huge play on the Tigers again for the National Championship. I feel like LSU took Alabama's best shot earlier this year in Tuscaloosa and was still able to pull out a close victory. The Tigers have been in these huge games seemingly every week this season, but have yet to be denied. Just think of how well the Tigers have played on neutral turf this year and thrown in the fact that LSU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games where the betting line is less than a touchdown from -6.5 to +6.5. I like the Tigers here in a 23-10 type ball game. Good Luck!
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