No. 6 Louisiana State Tigers (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. No. 18 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 20th, 2012, 12:00 p.m. EST
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: LSU -3.5/TX AM +3.5
Over/Under Total: 52
The SEC will get off to an early start on Saturday when the 6th-ranked Louisiana State Tigers travel to College Station and the original home of the 12th Man at Kyle Field when they play 18th-ranked Texas A&M at noon on ESPN.
LSU is coming off a strong bounce-back game with a win over South Carolina in Death Valley last weekend, 23-21. It was an especially good comeback game for the Tigers offense, who went 11-for-19 on third down against the Gamecocks to wrangle control of the game, a factor that helps teams win in SEC play.
But LSU better strap it up, because this is thee game of the year for the Aggies thus far. Texas A&M avoided two possible hiccups the last two weeks on the road (won at Ole Miss 30-27; at La. Tech 59-57 last Saturday) to set up a showdown with LSU at home at Kyle Field in the nationally featured early game on ESPN. This is their chance at a statement game, a chance that everyone in College Station will be amped up and overly excited to try and complete.
Oddsmakers have staked LSU as the favorites in this game on the road, opening the point spread with the Tigers at minus -3 points. With early money siding with the Tigers, the number is up to -3.5 at just about every offshore sportsbook and property in Las Vegas.
The over/under total is open offshore, starting at 52, but the total has yet to get listed in the Vegas books and has yet to move it either direction at the books that are open.
On the surface this matchup looks like a battle of opposites … the all-defense-no-offense Tigers versus the all-offense-no-defense Aggies. If you can figure out which team is going to break the other's strength, well then you have figured out the key.
I have to give an advantage to LSU because Texas A&M's offense is dominated by one player, Johnny Manziel. That player is very dynamic, granted Manziel (676 rush, 1,680 pass, 24 TD) has come from nowhere to enter the Heisman chase, but the LSU front seven is skilled like no other team Manziel has faced this season.
Zach Mettenberger played much better last week, and it's not like the Aggies defense is loaded with talent. They were torched in the passing game last week against Louisiana Tech and are ranked 111th in FBS is pass defense, so if LSU can't get Kenny Hilliard going on early downs I still expect Mettenberger to be able to throw over the top.
Saturday's game will be the first time these two have met since the 2011 Cotton Bowl game in Cowboys Stadium, a 41-24 victory by LSU the year they finished second-fiddle to Auburn. Of course the entire Texas A&M staff has been replaced since then, and most of it's locker room has turned over too, but for the record the Tigers covered as just 1-point favorites.
Historically the Aggies have dominated the series with Louisiana State in the 90s, winning five straight (3-1-1 ATS) from 1991-95, but LSU owned the 80s going 3-1 SU and ATS. Over the decades, the Aggies are dangerous at home, going 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS against the Tigers in head-to-head play at Kyle Field.
Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think the Aggies defense is better than they played last week against a very good and underrated La. Tech team, good enough to keep them around until late in the fourth quarter. LSU will give Manziel his first hard game this season too, so I just don't see how this game gets over the total. I'm taking the under of 52 in what I think will be a 20-17 or 24-21 type of game. Take the under of 52.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Get tonight's college football winner ABSOLUTELY FREE from PlaybyPlay Sports! Call 1-877-768-2925 now!
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2015 College Football Predictions - Badger gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2016 National Championship game.
2015 Heisman Trophy Predictions - Trevone Boykin (TCU QB) is favored to win the award at 7.5-1 odds but Bob says this is a sucker bet! Dak Prescott should be a contender and ball carriers Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette look good as well!
2016 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football handicapper Bob gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2016 National Championship. Despite not liking to side with heavy favorites, he believes the Alabama Crimson Tide (+950) are the team to beat.
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $2000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
GTBets - Offers a HUGE 100% sign up bonus up to $500! Cool offer allows for you to pick 2 of your favorite college football teams and move the line a full point every time you bet those teams!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - This article is outdated and will be updated next year for the 2014 college football season.
Odds to Win the 2015 BCS Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +500 followed by Oregon at +800, Ohio St. +850, LSU/Texas A&M +1200 and Florida/FSU both at +1400. Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
Fantasy College Football - Draft a fresh team every week! Leagues range from $2 to $420! You can play head to head or in big groups! Payouts take place approx. one hour after the final Saturday game.
The Spread - Who will cover the spread? They will! Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!