Marshall Thundering Herd (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS), Week 1 College Football, 7:30 p.m. EST, Thursday, September 2, 2010, Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio, TV: Big Ten Network
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Marshall +28.5/Ohio State -28.5
Over/Under: 47
Bet the Marshall/Ohio State game using your credit card an online sportsbook that was voted "The Player's Favorite" by Predictem readers: Bodog.
The 2nd-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes kick off what they hope will be a title-contending year on opening night Thursday when they welcome the Marshall Thundering Herd into the Horseshoe of Ohio Stadium in Columbus.
With quarterback Terrelle Pryor entering his third season running the Buckeyes offense, and one of the strongest front-seven’s in the NCAA leading the Buckeyes defense, Ohio State is one of the short favorites to challenge for a BCS Championship birth. Obviously, a lot seems to be riding on this season in Columbus.
The Thundering Herd rides into the Horseshoe with a new head coach, Doc Holliday, who was brought in despite the fact the Herd went 7-6 last season in Conference USA and beat Ohio in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl for an eighth win. With 12 starters back from that squad, Holliday is expected to hit the ground running with a good team, but an upset in his first game at Marshall might be too dreamy for the Herd.
Ohio State is favored in this game by just over four touchdowns, as most offshore sportsbooks are listing the Buckeyes as 28.5-point favorites. But there are a few sportsbooks showing minus-29 on their board (SportsInteraction) and even one at 29.5 (Las Vegas Hilton), so the number seems to be rising as the action at the window increases.
The over/under total is currently listed at a modest 47, up a few points from where it opened at 45.5, so early wagering has caused the total to go up too.
For the Buckeyes to do what everyone expects them to do this season they need Pryor to play like he did in the Rose Bowl win over Oregon (266 yards, 2 TD, 72 rush yards), and less like he did in losses to Iowa (93 yards passing, 29 yards rushing, 0 TD) and Purdue (221 yards, 2 INT).
A cleaned up knee should make him a little shiftier on the option- read, but Pryor needs to improve at several facets of the passing game (56.6 comp. %, 18-11 TD-to-INT) for the Buckeyes to take advantage of defensive mismatches because 103rd in the nation passing (173.6 ypg) just isn’t going to cut it.
What should make this game interesting, at least early in the game, is the fact that Marshall actually boasts a strong defense. Ends Vinny Curry and Michael Janac are very capable of causing problems off the edge in passing situations, which might force Pryor up in the pocket and make him move his feet. If the Herd can stop the run on early downs, their pass rush could keep this game closer than most people (i.e. 28.5-point spread) think it’s going to be.
The Marshall defense will be forced to keep the team in the game because the Herd offense will likely struggle. Even though QB Brian Anderson in back as the starter from last season, it’s a new “spread- offense” system under new coach Holliday so you might as well call him a rookie again. Plus, his 14-to-13 TD-to-Interception ratio isn’t exactly awe-inspiring.
Add the fact that their top running back, Andre Booker, was a receiver last year and you have an entirely raw backfield forced to go up against the Buckeyes and their front-seven. The Herd did average 206.4 yards passing (77th) and 142.7 yards rushing (65th) last season, and they’ll get to those numbers again this year … just not against the Buckeyes.
Marshall last played at the Horseshoe back in 2004, nearly pulling off the upset before eventually falling 24-21. Two Justin Zwick-to- Santonio Holmes touchdowns gave the Buckeyes just enough cushion to survive a late scare by the Herd, who came into the game as 16.5- point underdogs.
The betting trends for the game are conflicting, so it becomes a matter of which way you fall in handicapping this game. If you like Marshall to cover, you’ll like the fact that the Herd is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. But if you’re a Buckeye, Ohio State’s 5-1 ATS record at the Shoe in the last six and their 4-0 ATS record in their last four non-conference games trumps everything Marshall and then some.
The under wager has the strongest trends, going 5-1 in the Herds last six non-conference games and 8-2 in their last 10 road games; while the under is 4-0 in the Buckeyes last four non-conference tilts, 7-2 in September and 9-2-1 in their last 12 games overall.
Badger’s Pick: My gut tells me that Marshall’s defense is good enough to keep the Thundering Herd within four touchdowns, but even so I’m staying away from the side bet here with the huge spread. It may take awhile for the Buckeyes to pull away, so I’m playing the under of 47 here as defense rules the Horseshoe on Thursday night. Take the under of 47.
Be sure to check back each week for free college football picks with analysis!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
