Miami Hurricanes (0-0) vs. No. 19 Florida State Seminoles (0-0) 8:00 p.m. EST, September 7th, 2009, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida. TV: ESPN
By Oracle of Predictem.com
Point Spread: FSU -6.5/Miami +6.5
With a lot of the off-season focus on a cheating scandal back in 2006-07 that would take away 14 wins, Bobby Bowden’s Florida State Seminoles are coming into this college football season a little under the radar.
Bowden, who is 79 years young and chasing Joe Paterno for most collegiate wins all-time, returns for his 34th season at the helm. He has some good talent back this year, including quarterback Christian Ponder, as a season ago they ended on a good note with a 42-13 bowl game win over Wisconsin.
Miami comes into this contest with high hopes – and also a tough schedule. They’ll face four ranked opponents in a row to start off the season, culminating with a game against the mighty Oklahoma Sooners.
Last year’s contest between the two squads surprisingly became a high scoring shootout, as the Seminoles came out ahead, 41-39.
The over/under opened up at a total of 48.5 for this in-state rivalry contest. Neither team seemed to be very dynamic overall last year offensively, except for their head-to-head contest, while each program lost a couple of key players offensively. That may have caused the line to open up a little smaller than expected this time around.
Meanwhile, the ranked Seminoles are 6.5 point favorites at most online sportsbooks.
The Seminoles lost a few key ingredients on offense at the skilled position, but return junior quarterback Christian Ponder, who seemed to find a rhythm toward the end of last season.
Ponder ended up throwing for over 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns, but also had 13 picks. It doesn’t help him much that two of his favorite targets in Preston Parker and Greg Carr were lost to graduation, however, he’ll look to a couple of younger wideouts to get the ball to. In the big win against Miami last year, Ponder threw for 159 yards and scampered for 144.
Running back Antoine Smith was also lost to graduation, but is replaced by Jermaine Thomas, who averaged a STOUT 7 yards per carry last season.
Consistency and execution will be the key for FSU not only this year, but against Miami, since they have a plethora of newer faces stepping in.
Their rival Hurricanes have had question marks galore as far as the quarterback position goes. Robert Marve started last season, got suspended, then started, and then was benched. In the off-season, Marve transferred to Purdue. Jacory Harris, who split time with Marve in 2008, will now take over the full time duties.
Also, two of their backup quarterbacks to start out camp this year have asked for their walking papers, so the depth behind Harris is thin for head coach Randy Shannon.
Harris looked impressive as a true freshman last year by throwing for 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,200 yards. His backfield mate will take some of the load off of his shoulders, as Graig Cooper comes back after gaining 841 yards on the ground a season ago.
In the game against FSU last year, Miami found themselves down big at the half, 24-3, however they made a nice comeback. Harris didn’t have a big impact in that contest (3-for-7, 32 yards, 1 INT), and Cooper was held to just 31 yards on the ground by the tough FSU defense. If Miami wants any chance of a victory, they’ll need both players to step it up.
Bettors may have questions about what the retooled FSU offense is going to be like, and rightfully so. They haven’t been their normal offensive juggernaut the past few years, although the potential showed its face in 2008. Instead, their defense has held things together for them.
This is why the over/under is an interesting move here. The over is 5-1 in the last six home games for the Seminoles. It’s also 4-1 in their last five as favorites of this margin.
Last year the high scoring affair took place in Miami. Recently, the Hurricanes tend not to score so well all the road as the under is 4-1 in their last five away games as a dog.
Both squads have pretty good trends as far as the spread goes. Although Miami may not go over the point total on the road, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games as the underdog.
Overall, FSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Here is the kicker for bettors, though. The underdog has a huge trend of prevailing. In their last seven head-to-head match ups, the dog is 7-0. Meanwhile, the high scoring affair last season might have been just an enigma, because the under is 6-2 in the last 8 m meetings between the squads.
The Hurricanes are trying to get back to prominence, but the ageless Bowden and his Seminoles may have the upper hand in this game.
Oracle’s Pick: Look for Miami to shock a lot of people by sticking with the Seminoles. This may be Jacory Harris’ coming out party, as the Hurricanes stay within the spread and may just pull off the upset with a straight up win at Doak Campbell, HOWEVER, I feel the UNDER 47.5 is a safer bet.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
College Football Pointspread Winners ABSOLUTELY FREE 1-877-768-2925 Call PlaybyPlay Sports Now!
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2015 College Football Predictions - Badger gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2016 National Championship game.
2015 Heisman Trophy Predictions - Trevone Boykin (TCU QB) is favored to win the award at 7.5-1 odds but Bob says this is a sucker bet! Dak Prescott should be a contender and ball carriers Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette look good as well!
2016 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football handicapper Bob gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2016 National Championship. Despite not liking to side with heavy favorites, he believes the Alabama Crimson Tide (+950) are the team to beat.
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $2000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Ezekiel Elliott starts the season as a 6/1 favorite to win the award. Those that have seen crafty LSU Soph. Leonard Fournette think he's a lock though. Trevone Boykin brings experience and plays on a high scoring team. Cardale Jones won the big game last year and is listed as 12-1. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2015 BCS Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +500 followed by Oregon at +800, Ohio St. +850, LSU/Texas A&M +1200 and Florida/FSU both at +1400. Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
Fantasy College Football - Draft a fresh team every week! Leagues range from $2 to $420! You can play head to head or in big groups! Payouts take place approx. one hour after the final Saturday game.
The Spread - Who will cover the spread? They will! Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!