Miami Hurricanes (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Florida State Seminoles (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS), Saturday November 12th, 2011. 3:30PM EST. College Football Week 11
Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee, Fla
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mia +9.5/FSU -9.5
Over/Under Total: 50.5
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Old school powerhouses collide this Saturday when the Florida State Seminoles welcome the Miami Hurricanes into Doak Campbell Stadium. This was supposed to be the year the Seminoles returned to prominence, but 3 straight losses during the middle of the year ruined any chances for the Seminoles to do anything "big." Yet Florida State has racked up 4 wins in a row since their mid-season blunder and will attempt to keep the momentum alive this Saturday against their archrival by way of the Miami Hurricanes.
Miami has had a rather disappointing roller coaster ride of a season thus far with a mark of 5-4 on the year. The Hurricanes have simply been plagued by inconsistency troubles, but are looking to end the year on a positive note. The Hurricanes blew out the Duke Blue Devils 49-14 last week in one of their better offensive performances of the season. The Miami offense has averaged just 385 yards in total offense (67th in NCAA) and 30 points (46th in NCAA) per game on the year. In recent weeks, QB Jacory Harris has played extremely well which has given the offense some much needed confidence.
Of course Harris is well-known for being inconsistent and has had troubles turning over the football throughout his tenure in Miami. However in the last 7 games, Harris has thrown 14 touchdowns compared to just 1 interception which is a big turnaround. Junior WR Tommy Streeter has benefited from Harris's new found faith in the passing game. Streeter has caught 11 passes for just less than 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last two games. Streeter is a really big wide out who has the perfect size for jump ball situations. Therefore, expect Harris to target Streeter not only on deep passing routes but close to the goal line in scoring situations.
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Outside of the surging passing attack, the Hurricanes also run the ball fairly well behind running back Lamar Miller. Miller eclipsed the 1,000 yard barrier in last week's win over Duke and has 8 touchdowns to his credit on the year. Miller has been a big part of the offense all season, but he will have his work cut out for him this week against a Florida State rush defense that ranks 3rd in the nation. The Seminoles have given up just 76 yards per game on the ground this season and are as talented as any team in the country among the defensive front. The goal for the Seminoles defense will be stop Miller on the ground and then put Harris into pressured passing situations in effort to force turnovers. However, whether Florida State is able to stop Miller and rattle Harris remains to be determined.
For Florida St. on offense, the Seminoles find most of their offensive success through the air where they have averaged 292 yards per game this year. QB E.J Manuel is finally healthy and playing well as a result. Over the last 4 games, Manuel has completed over 70% passing for 250 yards per game with 6 scores and 2 picks. Luckily for the offense, WR Rashad Greene will return to action this Saturday as well. Greene was sensational through the first 5 games with 457 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. Greene has missed the last 4 games with an ankle injury but is expected to play which should be a boost to the offense if he is anywhere close to 100%.
The Seminoles have not exactly run the ball extremely well this season averaging only 126 yards per game on the ground (91st in NCAA). However, freshman running back Devonta Freeman has single handedly revived the ground game in recent weeks. Freeman has gained nearly all of his 367 yards over the last 4 games and he is a guy that has tremendous upside. The Hurricanes have not defended the run well this season giving up 179 yards per game on the ground (89th in NCAA). Therefore while most will be anticipating a quarterback duel this Saturday, Freeman could be a surprising big factor in the outcome.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Miami's pass defense had a lot of question marks entering the season. Luckily for Miami, they have yet to play a big time passing offense. That will change this Saturday as those pre-season question marks resurface and the Miami pass defense is exposed. Take Florida State -9.5.
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