Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. No. 3 Florida Gators (0-0
SU, 0-0 ATS), Week 1 NCAA Football, 12:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, September 4, 2010, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla., TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Miami (Ohio) +35/Florida -35
Over/Under: 55.5
Bet the Miami-Ohio/Florida game at an online bookie that offers -105 reduced juice wagering rather than the standard (expensive) -110 odds: 5 Dimes. (Predictem's Number 1 Ranked Sportsbook!)
The 3rd-ranked Florida Gators start life A.T. … after Tebow, on Saturday (September 4th) when they welcome in a nice, softy of an opener against the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks of the Mid-American Conference in The Swamp of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville.
After attempting 48 passes last year as a sophomore in mostly mop-up situations, Florida’s John Brantley will be put in full control of the stable of athletes the Gators have on offense for the first time since he committed to Florida three years ago. With Brantley running a more traditional pass offense, hopes are high for the Gators this season to get another shot at another SEC Championship game appearance.
Brantley should have little trouble getting his feet wet against a Redhawks team that went 1-11 in the MAC last season. Sportsbook oddsmakers are getting the same vibe for this game too, since they’ve had to make the Gators as high as 35-point favorites at home to get anyone to even think about a wager on the Redhawks.
The over/under total is listed at 55.5 on the board at most of the offshore sportsbooks, but a few houses have already moved it up to 56, so the total could still move a few points before kickoff.
The Gators offense still has plenty of weapons to fall back on to take the pressure off of Brantley, including running back Jeff Demps and receivers Chris Rainey, Andre Dubose and Deonte Thompson. But with only a week and a half before kickoff the Gators two starting tackles, Xavier Nixon and Matt Patchan, have yet to practice this fall due to injuries and they may or may not be back in time for the opener. When added to the fact Florida was already dealing with new players at guard and center, those skilled perimeter players won’t get a chance with Brantley laying on his back.
Miami does have an experienced quarterback leading the offense, since sophomore Zac Dysert took his lumps during last year’s 1-11 dismal season. Dysert actually led the Redhawks to the nation’s 22nd best passing attack last year at 273.7 yards per game, but without any running game (70.1 ypg – 119th) he became a human piñata and the Redhawks failed to score more than 15.6 points per game (116th).
Dysert should get some help from RB Thomas Merriweather and WR Armand Robinson this season and the Redhawks offense should get better, but it would take a colossal improvement to match the talent the Gators have riding the pine.
ATTENTION FOOTBALL PARLAY PLAYERS! DID YOU KNOW THAT YOU CAN BET PARLAYS AND LOSE SOME GAMES AND STILL GET PAID OUT? CHECK OUT THESE NEW PROGRESSIVE PARLAYS TODAY!
The difference in this ball game will be on the defensive side of the ball.
Florida lost players at every level of the defense, but with talented recruits waiting their chance they should be able to survive their inexperience in the early going. Don’t expect the unit that finished 4th in the country in points allowed (12.4 ppg), but they shouldn’t fall too far down the list.
The Redhawks defense on the other hand was as lousy as their 1-11 record would indicate, giving up over 34 points per game (34.2 ppg) including an average of 45 per game in two non-conference games versus Kentucky and Boise State. The defense looked good in scrimmages and in the spring game this year, but that was against their own offense and not the Gators. Once the adrenaline wears off late in the third quarter (or earlier), the Redhawks defense will be overmatched and it will be a hope and a prayer they can keep it under the spread.
This will be the first ever meeting between the two schools on the gridiron, so betting trends are hard to come by for the most part.
Miami is only 2-5 ATS in the last seven road games and a bankroll-killing 0-5 ATS in their last five games in September (i.e. early non- conference games).
Florida is on the other end of the spectrum … 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home in the Swamp.
The under bet seems to have the strongest trends. It’s 4-0 in the Redhawks last four non-conference and 5-2 in their last seven on grass, while the under is 6-2 in the Gators last eight games in September and 8-2 when the Gators play on grass.
Badger’s Pick: If you have to give up 35 points to pick the Gators here is it really worth the bet? I doubt it, even though I think the Gators probably will cover it. The best value could be the under of 55.5 (or 56 at some sportsbooks), hoping the Gators call off the dogs once they get it to a 41-0 or 45-0 score. Take the under of 55.5.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
