No. 9 Michigan State Spartans (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. No. 13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS), 12:00 p.m. EST, Week 9 NCAA Football, Saturday, October 29, 2011, Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Neb., TV: ESPN
by Badger, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: MSU +4/Neb -4
Over/Under Total: OFF
Bet the Mich St/U of N game using your credit card at an online sportsbook that WILL get it to work for deposits and that is the only online sportsbook to be able to boast that they were the 1st on the web: Intertops.
The 9th-ranked Michigan State Spartans jumped a few rungs up the BCS Championship ladder with a huge victory over previously unbeaten Wisconsin last weekend, but this week they will face their first huge challenge away from the friendly confines of Spartan Stadium when they travel to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln to take on the 13th-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers in another huge Big Ten Conference showdown Saturday on ESPN.
Sparty had their prayers answered in the form of a, 37-31, victory last week over the Badgers, scoring the huge win when a Hail Mary pass at the end of the game deflected off a helmet and into the hands of Keith Nichol on the goal line. Originally ruled down at the half-yard line, the instant replay officials overruled the crew on the field and gave the Spartans the win that catapulted them up to No. 11 in the current BCS standings.
Despite all of the drama at the end, the Spartans played a solid all around game to score the victory, intercepting Russell Wilson twice, blocking a field goal attempt and blocking a punt for a touchdown to score their second straight crucial victory in as many weeks.
Nebraska enters Saturday’s showdown fresh off a, 41-14, drubbing of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Cornhuskers opened up a 34-0 halftime lead behind a remarkable 346 yards rushing on the ground (6.2 ypc) and never really looked back in the lopsided win over the Gophers.
BETTING AT -110 ODDS IS A THING OF THE PAST. MAKE THE SWITCH TO 5DIMES TODAY TO START BETTING AT -105 ODDS WHICH WILL SAVE YOU BIG MONEY!
But the non-conference-like tune up game is over and now the Huskers will have to step up their game at home against a tough Spartans defense, with a chance at first place in the new Legends Division of the Big Ten on the line.
Giving credit to Michigan State for all that they have accomplished the past few weeks, the college game is still a game of home field advantage, which is why the oddsmakers opened Saturday’s game with Nebraska as 4.5-point favorites at home in Memorial Stadium. Most of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and on the Web have dropped the hook to list the number at Huskers minus -4, and there’s even a scant few down to 3.5-points since most of the early money on this game is coming in on the red hot Spartans.
As of press time the over/under total has yet to be released.
When you breakdown this game offensively it’s clear to see that Michigan State has more run-pass balance than the Cornhuskers, but it could be argued that Nebraska has more game-breakers on their side of the ball.
With quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Rex Burkhead fueling the running attack, Nebraska goes for over 261 yards a game on the ground (7th in NCAA). After watching the Badgers gouge the Spartans top-10 defense for over 220 yards last week, with a 5.4 yards per carry average, you can bet Michigan State will see a steady diet of the Huskers read-option this weekend.
It’s when the Huskers and Martinez are forced to throw the ball that the get in trouble. With just a 171 yards a game average, it’s clear to everyone that Martinez struggles to read coverages and getting the ball out on the perimeter to his receivers. Michigan State also features one of the best secondaries in the game, allowing just 134 yards a game (2nd), so the Huskers could struggle again this week if they are forced to throw to win it.
But the Spartans best defense against the Huskers this week could turn out to be their offense. With senior Kirk Cousins at QB the Spartans can spread the field and pick apart the Nebraska defense, a defense that isn’t exactly up to par with the famous “Blackshirts” units of old and one that is allowing 355 yards a game (42nd).
If Michigan State can get out to a quick lead and force Nebraska to throw to play catch up it will give them a huge advantage. The Spartans can also control the clock with a one-two punch of Le’Veon Bell (6 TD) and Edwin Baker (434 yards) on the ground, against a Huskers defense that at times has been blown off the ball in the run game (162.7 ypg – 70th).
This will be the fourth time these two schools have met on the gridiron, with Nebraska holding a perfect 3-0 record straight up and against the spread. The last meeting was back in 2003, in what turned into a, 17-3, non-conference victory for the Huskers at home in Memorial Stadium as 3-point favorites. These two also played a home-and-home series in 1995 and 1996, with Nebraska winning big (50-10 in ’95; 55-14 in ’96) in both occasions.
Due to the limited history between these teams there are very few betting trends to follow.
Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in their last four Big Ten games, while the Cornhuskers have struggled for gamblers when they’ve played at home going 0-5 ATS in their last five in Lincoln. However, the Spartans do not play well as underdogs on the road (3-8 ATS as road dogs; 2-7 ATS as dog of 3.5 to 10 points).
If there is a trend to follow, it would be on the under. Michigan State has played under the total in five of their last seven Big Ten games (5-2) and the under is also 4-1 when they are road underdogs. The under is also 7-2 for Nebraska in their last nine games following an ATS win, and it’s also 17-6 in their last 23 games played in October.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I have a really hard time believing the Spartans can get it going for another huge game for the third week in a row. It’s a classic letdown spot for them in this game as well. I’m not exactly sold on the Cornhuskers offense yet, or their defense for that matter, but my gut is telling me that they can win this game … somehow. I’m taking Nebraska minus the points.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
