2011 Big Ten Championship - No. 13 Michigan State Spartans (10-2, 8-4 ATS) vs. No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS), Week 14 College Football, Sat. Dec. 3, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, 8:17pm ET, FOX
by Evergreen, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Wis (-9.5)/Mich St. (+9.5)
Over/Under Total: 54.5
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For NCAA Football fans, it doesn't get much better than Championship Week and the Big Ten fans get their first taste of a championship game as the Michigan State Spartans and Wisconsin Badgers meet this Saturday for the inaugural conference title. The Spartans (No. 13 BCS, No. 11 AP) take on the Badgers (No. 15 BCS, No. 15 AP) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis with both teams eyeing a spot in the Rose Bowl. Revenge will be a factor for both teams as Michigan State wrecked Wisconsin's National Championship hopes back in week 7 but it was the Badgers who got the 2011 Rose Bowl nod via tiebreak rules despite losing to Sparty in 2010 play. That is a pill no Spartan fan wants to swallow again. The game is the final kick on Saturday's schedule and can be seen on FOX.
The earliest lines opened with Wisconsin as 7.5 point favorites but most online betting sites had the spread at 9 or 9.5 by Monday afternoon. There is some moneyline info out there with Michigan State at +300 and Wisconsin at -360 at 5Dimes with the over/under total most commonly at 54 and a half.
Both teams enter the week riding four game win streaks with MSU dropping Northwestern in Evanston by a 31-17 margin in week 13 action as Wisconsin routed Penn State 45-7 at Camp Randall. Both teams were also respectable in their two losses with the Spartans falling only at Notre Dame and at Nebraska with the Badgers losing late both at Ohio State and, of course, at Michigan State.
The first meeting this year saw the Badgers jump out to a 14-0 lead before the Spartans special teams made plays in blocking a punt and field goal attempt. The State defense recorded a safety and picked off two passes in opening up the lead before the Badgers got back on track and tied the game late in the final quarter. In the punctuation on a classic battle, Kirk Cousins' Hail Mary was answered, but not until the call on the field was reversed by replay, and the Spartans captured the 37-31 victory. There have been 15 NCAA conference championship games between teams that have met in the regular season with the team that won the first meeting going on to win 10 of those. Michigan State will be looking to make it three wins in a row against Wisconsin after a 34-24 win at home in week 5 last year.
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Wisconsin's offense versus the MSU defense is the marquee matchup as the Badgers enter with the 4th best scoring average at 44.8 points per game while the Spartans give up just 15.4 per contest, good for 6th in the nation. UW is strong on the ground as usual with the 10th ranked rush attack at 246 yards per game but have balance and average 230 yards through the air as well. MSU is a little more dependant on the air attack, averaging 244 yards while their rush nets 139 yards per game. The Spartan D gives up a very stingy 266 total yards but the Badgers give up just 278 and give up just over 15 points per game. Both defenses have some work to do after the week 7 game saw the Wisconsin ground game rack up 220 yards while the Michigan State passing game threw it for 290. State will look to play clean again as they were not penalized once with Wisconsin getting flagged on six occasions.
Kirk Cousins led MSU to a Legends division title with a solid year overall that saw him complete nearly 65% of his passes for 2,735 yards and 21 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. Cousins threw for three scores in the first meeting and will need another good performance if Wisconsin shuts down the run game again. Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker are talented and have accounted for 14 scores between them and could see opportunities as receivers out of the backfield this Saturday. B.J. Cunningham leads the team in catches, yards and touchdowns and burned the Badger secondary for 102 yards and a score in the earlier meeting.
Russell Wilson was better than advertised and the first team all conference QB is leading the nation in passing efficiency while throwing for nearly 2,700 yards and 28 touchdowns with just three interceptions. Two of those INT's came at Michigan State but Wilson did have a rushing score and should find some room to run again this weekend. Montee Ball also earned all conference honors on Monday and is gaining some Heisman steam as he now stands at 34 total touchdowns after scoring four against Penn State. Nick Toon and Jared Abbrederis are Wilson's favorite targets with 15 scores between them and are especially dangerous off play action.
The Spartans are looking pretty good on the injury from with defensive backs Darqueze Dennard and Kurtis Drummond both listed as questionable with the Badgers reporting center Peter Konz as questionable after missing two weeks with an ankle injury.
The over has hit in eight of the last nine between these teams and the underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. Both teams have done well against good competition with Wisconsin going 7-3 ATS when matched against a .500 or better team and Michigan State has notched a 5-1 ATS mark. The Spartans are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine conference games with the Badgers on a 10-4 ATS mark against the Big Ten.
Evergreen's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is the 3rd meeting in the last fourteen months between these squads and I just can't see Wisconsin dropping this one, especially on a neutral field. The Badgers moved the ball in the first meeting and it took two blocked kicks, two interceptions, a safety and a Hail Mary to beat them on the road. I can't imagine all that happens again and the Badgers get their payback behind Wilson, Ball and the offensive line that earned three all conference selections. My score prediction: Wisconsin 37 Michigan State 20.
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