Michigan State Spartans (5-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS), Saturday, November 14th, 12 p.m. Eastern, Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN; TV: ESPN
By Oracle of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Purdue -1/Michigan State +1
Over/Under: 52
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The matchup between the Michigan State Spartans and Purdue Boilermakers won’t have any bearing on the national championship, or even the Top 25 teams in the country for that matter. But it will still have a large impact on each individual team.
With a road win against Purdue on Saturday in a game played at Ross-Ade Stadium at 12 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, Michigan State will become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, after starting the season just 1-5, the Boilermakers have won three of four and have a shot at a bowl game if they win their last two contests against the Spartans and Indiana.
With the Boilermakers playing pretty well as of late, and the fact that they’re at home, online sportsbooks have opened with Purdue the favorites , but just by the slimmest of margins at -1. However, with the public jumping all over the Spartans,, the line has moved to Purdue as dogs +3 at some sportsbooks.
Neither team has dominated the spread this season, with Michigan State having a 4-5 mark and Purdue at an even 5-5.
A big stat that the public may not have realized is the home team in this head-to-head series is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games. Advantage Purdue.
These two squads have split the last four contests, 2-2 SU. The winners covered every time and the under came in three of the four games.
Last season, the Spartans grabbed a 21-7 victory, but that was with the help of NFL draftee Javon Ringer’s 32 carries and two touchdowns. Also, the Spartans have a new quarterback under center this year in Kirk Cousins instead of Brian Hoyer.
The Spartans do come into this game losing two of its last three, but they got back on track last week in a 49-14 blowout of Western Michigan and easily covered the -20.5-point spread.
Michigan State’s offense racked up just over 600 total yards of offense. Cousins had the best game of his career by throwing for 353 yards and two touchdowns, while completing 22 of 25 passes.
MSU has a backfield by committee with Larry Caper getting most of the carries and leads the team with just 375 yards and six touchdowns.
Their potent offense will go against a pretty porous Purdue defense. But the one area the Boilermakers count on is their secondary, as they’re 34th in the nation by giving up 196 passing yards per game.
Quarterback Joey Elliot is the man weapon in Purdue’s offense. It seems as though if he has a good game, the Boilermakers win. Hence the thrilling 38-36 win against Michigan last weekend. Elliot threw for 367 yards and two scores and also ran for a touchdown.
Running back Ralph Bolden was finally used a little more in their offense as well, gaining nearly 100 yards and he found the end zone twice.
The Boilermakers will need a balanced attack against a pretty good Spartans defense.
Purdue showed a lot of grit by coming back from a 14-point deficit in the third quarter to win against Michigan last week. Not only that, but just the week before they were annihilated in a 37-0 shutout loss to Wisconsin.
The Spartans have eaten up on teams with losing records as of late, covering four of their last five against said teams. They’re also 4-1 ATS as road team favorites.
Purdue has been pretty good as of late for bettors when playing in November, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games during Thanksgiving month.
Other than that though, the Boilermakers don’t have very many trends going their way.
Good news for the Boilermakers is that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head contests between the two teams.
Even though Purdue has a pretty explosive offense, the under seems to be a big trend for them. Its 11-0-1 in the last 12 games as a home dog.
The very contrast to that, though, is the fact the over is 8-1 as road favorites for the Spartans.
So, these two teams could care less about the spread. All they’re worried about is staying bowl eligible so their programs can make some more dinero. Let the best team win!
Oracle’s Pick: Purdue has been hot lately, but a comeback win against a pretty bad Michigan team isn’t overly impressive. The Boilermakers should make this game relatively close, but look for the Spartans to get a late touchdown in the end to cover. Take the Spartans -3!
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