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Navy Midshipmen vs. South Florida Bulls Bears Odds - Prediction

No. 22 Navy Midshipmen (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) vs. South Florida Bulls (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date/Time: Friday, October 28th, 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, F.L.
TV: ESPN2
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: NAVY +7.5/USF -7.5
Over/Under Total: TBA

This Friday night the no. 22 Navy Midshipmen will travel to Raymond James Stadium for a meeting with the South Florida Bulls on ESPN2. The Midshipmen are coming off back to back impressive wins over no. 6 Houston followed by an equally impressive 42-28 victory last week against Memphis. Currently, Navy stands alone atop the American West while South Florida is tied for the top spot in the American East standings. Therefore, the winner of this Friday night’s contest should come close to cementing their opportunity towards playing for the American Athletic Conference Championship.

The Bulls will be playing in their 2nd straight Friday night lights contest this week. Last week, South Florida suffered their first conference loss of the season with a 46-30 defeat at Temple. The Bulls defense was trampled by Temple’s offense to more than 300 yards on the ground and 528 yards overall. It marked the 2nd game that South Florida had given up more than 300 yards on the ground this year and the 2nd loss as a result. Back in late September, South Florida gave up 478 rushing yards in a blowout loss to Florida State in a game where Dalvin Cook racked up 267 yards alone. Therefore, South Florida has experienced some issues with stopping the run this year which will be the pinnacle of their concerns against Navy this Friday.

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The Midshipmen will present their traditional triple option style offense this week that has produced nearly 300 yards per game on the ground and ranks 4th in the FBS. Currently Navy has 7 different players that have carried the ball at least 10 times led by quarterback Will Worth who leads the team with 489 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground. Worth has completed just 62 passes on the entire season which has produced a 59% completion rate with 5 scores and 2 picks. When the Midshipmen do make the rare attempt to throw the ball down the field it is normally in the direction of WR Jamir Tillman. Tillman is the only receiver on the team that has more than 3 catches with 19 total grabs equaling 286 yards. From what I have seen out of South Florida this season, they may have to bring a lot of help towards the line of scrimmage to stop the run. If that happens, rest assured there will be a few attempts down the field towards Tillman’s direction.

Despite Navy’s ability to run the football and a South Florida team that has struggled to defend the run, the Bulls are still more than a touchdown favorite at home this Friday. Of course the home advantage helps but the Bulls have a very good offense that revolves around quarterback Quinton Flowers. Flowers has thrown for 1,722 yards with 15 scores and 5 picks this season while running for another 745 with 8 scores. In many ways, Flowers is the South Florida offense and he has been nearly unstoppable for opposing defense in many ways similar to what Lamar Jackson has done for Louisville. While I would not dare to say Flowers is on that level, he has meant just as much to his team.

On the season, Flowers has helped lead a breakout campaign that has averaged 42.4 points per game which ranks 11th in the FBS. There have been other key contributors such as running back Marlon Mack who has 659 yards with 10 scores and WR Rodney Adams that has 502 yards with 4 score. However, this offense is still driven by the excellent play of their quarterback and they are going to be an extremely tough matchup for a Navy team that is not near as athletic on defense. Despite Navy’s 5-1 record, they are still vulnerable on defense and I think we will see just how vulnerable this Friday.

Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think Navy would probably be an easy pick in this situation given their toughness this year along with a strong 5-1 mark ATS. However, I think this will be South Florida’s game to shine. Navy has some limitations on the perimeter which I think will keep their defense on their heels. If South Florida just avoids a complete embarrassment on defense, I think they will score enough to cover. Take USF -7.5

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NCAA Football Week 5 Betting Previews

Here are some additional game previews from this week's college football card.

Free Picks

Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!

Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.

Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.

Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.

College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.

Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.

Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.

2017/2018 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2018 National Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 8th.

2017 Heisman Trophy Predictions - USC QB Sam Darnold is a heavy pre-season favorite to win college football's most coveted award, but Jay isn't buying it. In fact, he's passing up the top (3) favored players in favor of a QB who he's confident will be NCAA football's best player in 2017.

2017-2018 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the Alabama Crimson Tide running away with the National Championship this season and who can blame them? Roll Tide is LOADED! It never happens that easy though. The USC Trojans (+825), Florida St. Seminoles (+850) and Ohio St. Buckckeyes (+875) all have a legit shot. Oddsmakers have Oklahoma (+1300) on the bubble and everybody looking from the outside in at 20/1 or higher. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!

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Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - USC QB Sam Darnold starts the season off as a heavy favorite at +350 odds. Sooners QB Baker Mayfield is second on the list at +700 but can he keep his nose clean? Louisville QB Lamar Jackson should dominate this season but will Louisville be taken seriously? Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman is worth a pop at 60/1 if he gets the carries. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. But will they throw the ball enough with a QB who likes to run? Missing from this year's list of odds is a defensive player.

Odds to Win the 2017 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are heavy favorites to win the National Championship this year at 5/2 followed by Ohio St. at 13/5, USC at 7/1 and FSU at 17/2. Things drop off a bit with the Oklahoma Sooners coming in at 12/1, Auburn Tigers at 14/1 and Michigan Wolverines at 16/1. Check out your favorite school's odds here!

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