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New Mexico Lobos vs. Boise State Broncos Odds - Prediction

New Mexico Lobos (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Thursday, September 14, 2017 at 8PM EST
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: ESPN
by Scott, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: UNM +16.5/BSU -16.5
Over/Under Total: 58.5

In Mountain West action on Thursday, the New Mexico Lobos come into Idaho to take on the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. Neither team had a good time of it on Saturday. New Mexico saw a furious comeback fall short on a two-point conversion, as they lost to New Mexico State, 30-28. That’s nothing compared to the misery Boise State must be feeling after squandering a 31-10 fourth-quarter lead to Washington State on Saturday, losing in triple overtime, 47-44. They now face a tough turnaround and we’ll see if they can get it together in time for New Mexico.

It would be bad enough if Boise just lost normally in Saturday’s late game, then had to play the first game of the week 3 schedule. But to lose a triple overtime war when the other team’s backup QB leads the opponent back from a 3-touchdown deficit is just an incredibly bitter pill to swallow. In the 4th quarter, Washington State’s highly-touted quarterback Luke Falk went down to injury. It was looking like an absolute nightmare for the Cougars, who were unraveling in front of everyone’s eyes. For that to have somehow turned into a loss is the kind of defeat that can send a team’s whole season sideways. It was as improbable and painful a loss as can be in week two of a season. It would be interesting to see what the real-time odds were when Falk went down with a 21-point deficit and Boise in control, but it had to be gargantuan.

The Broncos had some issues of their own. Boise State quarterback and third-year starter Brett Rypien went down with an injury, but the team had already been working in dual-threat QB Montell Cozart and the team had been responding well under Cozart’s stewardship. And while the offense could have made a play late, it’s hard to pin the loss on them, with how badly the defense collapsed with an assist from special teams. In fact, the offense looked pretty good for most of the game. Having a viable option in Cozart also helps in the event that Rypien is slow to return.

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Cozart gives the Boise offense another ground-game option to go along with running back Alexander Mattison. There is a lot of production to make up for with Jeremy McNichols gone. And after losing some key pieces in their receiving crew, it was good to see Cedrick Wilson embrace the role of number-one receiver with a 147 and two scoring grabs on Saturday. The offense also performed decently in OT, but not good enough to make up for a spiraling defense. All in all, this side of the ball put Boise in a position to win as double-digit underdogs. The other side of the ball couldn’t cooperate.

The depressing part of the defensive collapse for the Broncos on Saturday was that they had been doing so well for over three quarters, with the high-powered Cougars offense managing just ten points. Luke Falk’s numbers were terrible. Durrant Miles and Tyler Horton had registered picks, while Curtis Weaver returned a Falk fumble for a touchdown. But by the time it was said and done, they allowed over 400 yards through the air and folded like hot laundry when one big play in the final half of the fourth probably would have sealed it. Collapses are one thing. They happen. But seldom to you see a team have an opponent as demoralized as Boise had the Cougars on Saturday and still manage to blow it.

The Broncos collapse almost makes New Mexico’s loss look like small potatoes. Make no mistake, however, as being down 30-5 in the fourth quarter and coming all the way back only to fall short with a 2-point conversion is painful. Head coach Bob Davie has done a lot to get this team back on the right track, taking a Lobos program that could barely buy a win into a program that won 9 games last season. One of Davie’s big moments was when as 31-point favorites; they beat the Broncos at home by a TD in 2015. Last season, Boise beat one of only three spreads it covered all season with a four-touchdown win over the Lobos.

A big part of New Mexico’s recent success is their defense. This season, they’ve been erratic, especially early in their first two games. Their stoutness late almost helped get the team the unlikely comeback win last week. There isn’t a ton of returning pieces to what was a solid 2016 group. The line has some spunk and freshman Rhashaun Epting has helped a second level that includes experienced Garrett Hughes. Elijah Lilly and Bijon Parker have looked good in the secondary, but at times they made the New Mexico St. offense look good and with the difficulty ramping up this week, we’re going to see if the youth on this side of the ball is up to the task.

It’s unclear what the Lobos are doing at QB moving forward. Lamar Jordan has been starting for three seasons, but after a rough start that included two interceptions, the Lobos turned to Tekava Tuioti. He struggled at times, but was able to get this offense moving in a big way, especially late. With this offense, the QB is more a runner than a passer at times, but Tuioti showed a good arm. They lack some of last year’s punch at running back when they were ranked tops in all of college football in rushing yardage. Maybe their offense will eventually find balance, but to win this game or to even cover, they’re going to need to do damage on the ground with the option attack.

Again, this is a tough comeback spot for the Boise St. Broncos. To lose the last game on the schedule in triple overtime in excruciating fashion, only to have to play the first game on next week’s schedule creates a potential trouble-spot. The question is whether or not a New Mexico team that seems to have regressed can take advantage. Though both teams lost in week two, New Mexico was flying at the end of the game, while Boise literally died on the field at the end of their triple overtime battle. And I see Mexico being just gritty enough to notch the cover.

Scott's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New Mexico Lobos plus 16.5 points. Bet your pick for this game using your credit card at an online bookie where it WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a generous 100% signup bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $250! (Example: Deposit $250 and they'll give you an extra $250 FREE!) Find this great offer at Bovada Sportsbook.

NCAA Football Week 5 Betting Previews

Here are some additional game previews from this week's college football card.

Free Picks

Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!

Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.

Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.

Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.

College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.

Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.

Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.

2017/2018 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2018 National Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 8th.

2017 Heisman Trophy Predictions - USC QB Sam Darnold is a heavy pre-season favorite to win college football's most coveted award, but Jay isn't buying it. In fact, he's passing up the top (3) favored players in favor of a QB who he's confident will be NCAA football's best player in 2017.

2017-2018 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the Alabama Crimson Tide running away with the National Championship this season and who can blame them? Roll Tide is LOADED! It never happens that easy though. The USC Trojans (+825), Florida St. Seminoles (+850) and Ohio St. Buckckeyes (+875) all have a legit shot. Oddsmakers have Oklahoma (+1300) on the bubble and everybody looking from the outside in at 20/1 or higher. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!

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Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - USC QB Sam Darnold starts the season off as a heavy favorite at +350 odds. Sooners QB Baker Mayfield is second on the list at +700 but can he keep his nose clean? Louisville QB Lamar Jackson should dominate this season but will Louisville be taken seriously? Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman is worth a pop at 60/1 if he gets the carries. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. But will they throw the ball enough with a QB who likes to run? Missing from this year's list of odds is a defensive player.

Odds to Win the 2017 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are heavy favorites to win the National Championship this year at 5/2 followed by Ohio St. at 13/5, USC at 7/1 and FSU at 17/2. Things drop off a bit with the Oklahoma Sooners coming in at 12/1, Auburn Tigers at 14/1 and Michigan Wolverines at 16/1. Check out your favorite school's odds here!

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