New Mexico Lobos (0-0, 0-0 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (0-0, 0-0 ATS) 3:30 p.m. EST, College Football Week 1, Saturday, September 4, 2010, Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
By Scotty L of Predictem.com
Point Spread: New Mexico (+34.5), Oregon (-34.5)
Over/Under: 58.5
Bet the New Mexico/Oregon game using your checking account to deposit instantly to your betting account and to receive a generous 100% sign up bonus (Deposit $116 and get $116 FREE!) at one of the web's oldest and most established online sportsbooks: Sportsinteraction.
Both teams look to bounce back from a strange ’09 campaign with strong performances in the opening week. Oregon was 10-3 and made the Rose Bowl, but was plagued by suspensions and off-the-field behavioral issues. New Mexico had enough to worry about just on the field, where they went a woeful 1-11.
Last year’s Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was kicked off the team. They might struggle at QB, however, they do still have most of their offensive threats—the same guys who helped put up 36 points per game. With LaMichael James (1500+ yards/14 TDs) returning, they will have a heck of a tailback combination, with Kenjon Barner and promising freshman Lache Sistrunk waiting in the wings. With a less mobile quarterback, Oregon might throw the ball a bit more. Look for scrappy sure-handed receiver Jeff Maehl to see a lot of action this season.
One feels like extending Oregon a little benefit of the doubt on the QB situation. Always able to reload in the past, the Ducks will be counting on senior Nick Costa and sophomore Darron Thomas to fill the big shoes of Masoli. With Oregon’s running game so front-and-center, the quarterback growing pains might not hurt them as much as it would other teams.
The Oregon defense returns many starters and they were darn good in ’09. Defensive end Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks in ’09) heads up a strong pass rush. Their veteran line is undersized, but should be hell on opposing quarterbacks. Their linebacking crew, returning two excellent senior starters, is mobile and athletic and will be tough against the run. First-team All Freshman Josh Boyett heads up a great secondary that is as deep as they are effective. With all this depth and added experience on defense, the Duck “D” should be top-notch. Their versatility and well roundedness make up for a small line.
Whatever issues Oregon has pale in comparison to the problems facing New Mexico. Coach Locksley, known for recruiting, did manage to assemble a nationally ranked recruiting class, quite a feat based on their horrible season. New Mexico, with a year under Locksley’s no-huddle system and some good young talent could improve. It would be difficult not to.
New Mexico has two freshman quarterbacks vying to captain an offense that put up an anemic 16 points per game last season. They’re returning their top rusher and receiver, but they both need to improve their production. A weak offensive line returns only 2 starters, leaving a lot of questions abound. Then again, when a team is 1-11, how many guys do you really want to return? Maybe this young squad can surprise some people.
The Lobos defense was equally awful last year, but should improve. Their pass rush, headed by Johnathan Rainey (9.5 sacks in ’09) will return 2 other starters. Cornerback Carmen Messina, who led the nation with 162 tackles in ’09, will be there to help a defensive unit that should be decent against the run. Stopping Oregon might be another matter altogether. Nevertheless, the Lobos look like a team with some upside. We’ll see if they have more growing pains or if they can cash in early on a celebrated recruiting class.
Bettors are always put in a tough spot with lines like this. 34.5 is a lot to cover. At the same time, does anyone doubt that Oregon will roll all over the Lobos? New Mexico will struggle to put up points this year against conference rivals, so how many points can they be expected to put up against one of the top defenses in the nation? If they managed 14, it would be a moral victory. For those a little edgy about the big number, Oregon could be nice addition to a teaser play.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Spread: The line opened in the 32.5-33 range and it got jumped on, driving it up to 34.5. I agree with the public at large. I see Oregon letting the poison out here. Recently, this is not a team shy about putting up points against woefully overmatched opponents. The coaches will use this as a confidence booster, allowing all their key offensive players to build up a head of steam going into the season. New Mexico will have no answers in what looks like a lopsided mismatch. Oregon’s running game will keep their defense rested, while eventually wearing the Lobos “D” to a nub. Barring any backdoor covers, Oregon should cover 34.5 on their way to an absolute rout.
Not happy laying -34? Did you know that you can buy up to 15 points on a single NFL point spread at 5Dimes?
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
