Northern Illinois Huskies (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Toledo Rockets (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS), 7:00 p.m. EST, Week 10 NCAA Football, Tuesday, November 1, 2011, Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio, TV: ESPN2
by Badger, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NIU +7.5/TOL -7.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
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If the Northern Illinois Huskies are going to have any chance at a Mid-American Conference title this season they’ll have to score a big win this week when they travel to the Glass Bowl on Tuesday to take on the Toledo Rockets in a crucial West Division contest in primetime on national television on ESPN2.
But that may prove to be a pretty tough task, as the Rockets are not only riding a four-game winning streak, but they are starting to get healthy again and come into the Tuesday night showdown as the hottest team in the MAC.
Toledo, the only undefeated team in MAC play, holds a one-game lead in the West Division standings over Northern Illinois and enters the Tuesday night showdown off of a, 49-28, victory over Miami of Ohio back on October 22nd. The Rockets racked up 497 yards of total offense and held a comfy 42-14 lead early in the fourth quarter before the Redhawks scored some points in mop-up time late in the game.
This game has turned into a must-win one for the Huskies if they have any hopes of catching the Rockets in the MAC West. The Huskies are also riding a three-game win streak and are coming off of a high-scoring, 31-30 victory over Buffalo in their last outing on the 22nd, but their victory came only after the Buffalo kicker shanked an extra-point attempt in the closing seconds to gift-wrap it for the Huskies and allow them to slip out of town with the win.
With 10 days to game plan and prepare for the Tuesday night showcase game, let’s hope both teams come in ready to put on a show in the Glass Bowl in Toledo.
Oddsmakers are leaning heavily on the Rockets at home in this game, setting the opening point spread with Toledo as 7.5-point favorites. With most bettors focusing their attention on the NFL on Sunday, the line has yet to move in either direction since the opening number was released.
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As of press time an over/under total has yet to be released. Once the total is released though you can expect it to be a very large number, because this game will feature the top two offenses in the MAC and two of the top-30 units in the country.
Northern Illinois enters the game with the 20th-ranked offense in the country (463.2 ypg) led by duel-threat quarterback Chandler Harnish. Harnish leads the team in both rushing (738 yards) and passing (1,697 yards, 12 TD), and he has a nice complement of talent around him including running back Jasmin Hopkins (12 TD) and receiver Perez Ashford. The Huskies also put up points in bunches, as they’ve only failed to score at least 40 points in two games this season and are currently ranked 10th in the NCAA with a scoring average of 38.5 per game.
But the Rockets offense is equally explosive in its own right, ranked 28th in the land with an average of 439.5 yards per game. Toledo’s attack is a more balanced approach though, with three very capable running backs (Morgan Williams, David Fluellen and Adonis Thomas) are complementing quarterback Austin Dantin (1,010 yards, 10 TD) very well.
Thomas, the Rockets top running back from last year, returned from a broken arm in the last game to give Toledo a plethora of options when they decide to run the ball. When Dantin drops back to pass his favorite target is Eric Page, who already has 65 catches on the season to go with four touchdowns.
The Rockets offense stands to make a ton of yardage on Tuesday too, because the Northern Illinois defense is one of the worst in the country. The Huskies defense gave up 572 yards and 33 first downs to an offensively challenged Buffalo team last game, and their yards allowed (432.8 ypg – 98th) and points allowed (32.5 ppg – 99th) averages are some of the worst numbers in the land.
On the other hand, Toledo’s defense looks like they may be well equipped to limit the Huskies attack on the ground, as the Rockets allow just 110.6 yards a game (27th) on the ground.
Toledo will be looking to avenge a 65-30 loss to Northern Illinois last season in DeKalb. In fact, the last four seasons it’s been the home team that has not only won the game straight up, but also against the spread. The last time these two played in the Glass Bowl back in 2009, the Rockets scored a 20-19 victory as 7.5-point underdogs.
There are really not too many betting trends in favor of Northern Illinois in this contest. Not only are the Huskies 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 head-to-head meetings against the Rockets, but they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to the Glass Bowl. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games overall, and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.
The over also looks like a strong trend play here, as it is 19-6-1 in the Rockets last 26 games as a home favorite and 8-2 in the Huskies last 10 games as a dog of 3.5-to-10 points.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Northern Illinois is simply not a very good road team, and they’re not a very good road team with a very porous defense. Plus, Toledo is getting healthy at just the right time to make a MAC-title winning push. I like Toledo to put this one away by double-digits. Bet Toledo minus the points.
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