No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners (5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
(5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS), 8:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, November 7, 2009,
Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Neb., TV: ABC
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oklahoma -6/Nebraska +6
Over/Under: Off
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Back in August, the Oklahoma Sooners trip up to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln this Saturday to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers was thought to be a pivotal showdown in the Big 12 Conference. After all, the Sooners were supposed to contend for a BCS title with the return of quarterback Sam Bradford while the Cornhuskers program was finally considered to be “back” to its elite status as a big time football school.
My how things change in a few short months.
Now Bradford is hurt and out for the season, the Cornhuskers can’t seem to score any points on offense and nothing has turned out the way the experts predicted since both teams are just 5-3 on the season when the 20th-ranked Sooners take on the unranked Cornhuskers in a now almost meaningless game Saturday night on ABC.
Oklahoma comes into the game fresh off of a 42-30 victory over Kansas State at home in Norman last Saturday, but the Sooners had a much tougher time beating the Wildcats then the score indicates.
After jumping out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter the Sooners looked like they tossed it into cruise control and it nearly cost them the game. K-State rallied and at one point pulled to within 35-30 late in the third quarter before the Sooners tacked on the final score for the 12-point victory.
Nebraska, meanwhile, finally got back in the win column last week with a 20-10 victory over Baylor after back-to-back disappointing losses to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7) the previous two weeks.
Freshman quarterback Cody Green replaced Zac Lee as the starter against Baylor and the Huskers scored the most points they have since their 27-12 win over Missouri, but it was far from an impressive offensive performance. The Huskers were actually outgained by the Bears in the game, but Green did a nice job of managing the game (12- of-21 for 128 yards) and allowed the Blackshirts defense to preserve the victory on the road.
Oddsmakers feel the Cornhuskers will have a chance in this game on Saturday, as they opened the game with Oklahoma as modest 6-point favorites on the road in Lincoln. That is a far cry from last year’s 21-point spread the Sooners enjoyed at home.
As of press time an over/under total has yet to be released.
Oklahoma’s high-powered offense is now under the command of Landry Jones, who took over for Bradford and has done a serviceable job in his absence. Jones has put up some gaudy numbers so far (1,657 yards, 17 TDs) and he was very good last week against Kansas State (26-of-37 for 294 yds., 4 TD), but with weapons like Ryan Broyles, Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray it’s more a product of the system than anything special he’s doing behind center.
Green took over for Lee last week at quarterback because the Cornhuskers offense needed some sort of spark to jumpstart the unit that is currently just 68th in the NCAA at 368 yards per game. They also are 54th in points scored (27.6 ppg), but those numbers are skewed from their easy non-conference schedule against the likes of Florida Atlantic (49), Arkansas State (38) and Louisiana Lafayette (55) because the Huskers biggest output against legit competition was their 27-point outburst against Mizzou.
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The good news is that Nebraska might get running back Roy Helu back on Saturday. Helu is listed as probable and would team up with Dontrayevous Robinson as a good one-two punch on the ground against the Sooners defense. Nebraska will also have to get better at third- down, because their 5-for-15 mark they had against Baylor won’t cut it against the Sooners.
Oklahoma’s defense is 11th in the country in yards allowed (277.2 ypg), including 3rd in rushing defense (80 ypg), so Nebraska will need Helu and Robinson at full speed if they hope to have a chance at the upset. The Sooners are also 8th in the country in points allowed (12.6 ppg), so the freshman quarterback Green will have his work cut out for him that’s for sure.
What’s going to be exciting to watch is the Sooners spread offense against the Cornhuskers strong defense. Led by nose tackle Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska is 9th in the country in overall defense (267.1 ypg), 13th against the pass (171.1 ypg) and 10th against the run (96 ypg), which has moved them up to 4th in scoring defense allowing just 11.2 points per game.
Nebraska will have a little bit of revenge on their minds on Saturday too, especially the defense, as they were embarrassed by the Sooners in Norman last year, 62-28. Oklahoma ran up 508 yards of total offense in the game and held a 62-21 lead before the fourth quarter even started, so don’t think for a second the Blackshirts defense won’t be using that game for motivation this week.
In what has turned into a lost season of sorts, a win over Oklahoma would make the Cornhuskers season, period. Oklahoma has owned Nebraska lately, wining four straight games dating back to the 2004 season. The Sooners have also covered the point spread in three of those four wins, with the only non-cover coming as huge 29-point favorites in their 30-3 victory in 2004.
The good news for Nebraska is that the last time these teams played at Memorial Stadium was the last time the Cornhuskers gave them a game, losing a close 31-24 game when their furious second-half comeback fell just short. The Cornhuskers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a winning record, so playing in front of the home crowd gives them their best chance.
Badger’s Pick: I’m not sure the Cornhuskers will have enough offense in this game to topple the Sooners, especially with the freshman at QB. But their defense will keep them in it. When the total is released I would strongly recommend a play on the under, but until then I’m going with the Huskers and their motivation for revenge. Take Nebraska plus the 6-points here.
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