No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS), Saturday October 8th, 2011. 12:00PM EST, College Football Week 6
Cotton Bowl Dallas, TX
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OU -9.5/UT +9.5
Over/Under Total: 56.5
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The Red River Rivalry needs little introduction as it holds its place among the greatest rivalries in all of college football. This Saturday the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns will meet for the 106th time in what is destined to be a huge meeting with possible Big 12 and National Championship type implications on the line. The no. 11 Texas Longhorns have jumped out to a quick 4-0 start which is a big turnaround from their 5-7 2010 campaign. A Texas win over the Oklahoma this Saturday would not only represent the Longhorns return to the national spotlight, but will also throw the Longhorns right into the thick of the Big 12 Championship picture.
Unlike the Longhorns who have yet to play a true quality opponent, Oklahoma is a bit more battle tested this season with big wins over both Florida State and Missouri. The Sooners have been in the middle of the National Championship discussion since the season began and those expectations will be tested again this Saturday. The Sooners will enter this Saturday's meeting with Texas as sizeable favorites. However, most Texas fans would quickly point out that the Longhorns have won 4 of the last 6 games over the Sooners and also lead the all-time series 59-41-5. Therefore, the Sooners will be attempting to shake off that historical trend and continue their march towards a National Championship when the two teams collide at the Cotton Bowl this coming weekend.
The tale of the tape will be the battle between the Oklahoma offense and the Texas defense. The Sooners offense is averaging 42 points per game (11th in NCAA) and over 555 yards of total offense (5th in NCAA). The Texas defense has held opponents to just 289 yards (15th in NCAA) and only 14.75 points per game (12th in NCAA). The side that comes out on top of that battle will likely win this ball game.
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It is easy to say that Oklahoma will be the best offense that the Texas defense has played to date this season. The Sooners have a spread passing attack, but can also run the football and pick up chunks of yards on the ground as well. QB Landry Jones has completed 71% passing for 1,447 yards with 10 touchdowns and 5 picks this season. There is no doubt that Jones can spread the ball around and find the open receiver. However, Jones has thrown 4 of his 5 interceptions in the Sooners two biggest games of the year against Missouri and Florida State. One thing that Oklahoma cannot do this Saturday is turn the ball over and give the Texas defense more confidence.
Luckily, the Sooners have some playmakers that should be able to help foil the Texas defense. WR Ryan Broyles is one of the most unstoppable receivers in the nation. On the year, Broyles has caught 38 passes for 476 yards and 6 touchdowns. If the Oklahoma offense starts sputtering, look for Broyles to be the guy to make a big play to ignite the offense as he has done so many times over the last two seasons. Also, keep an eye on Sooners tailback Dominique Whaley out of the backfield. Oklahoma running backs have historically been under rated as they are normally overshadowed from the potent Sooners passing attack. However, Whaley is a guy that can make things happen on the ground and has big play capability. It is easy to put too much focus on stopping the pass when playing Oklahoma. Therefore if the Longhorns defense loses that focus this Saturday, expect Whaley to make some plays out of the backfield.
On the other side of the field, the Texas offense has picked up steam since QB Case McCoy took over behind center from struggling Garrett Gilbert. McCoy has completed 70% passing for 335 yards with 2 scores and 0 picks over the last two games. McCoy's play has been encouraging for the offense and has temporarily solved the quarterback issues for the Longhorns. Still, this will be McCoy's biggest challenge of his young career and we just may see how good the youngster is this Saturday against a stingy Oklahoma defense.
If McCoy can avoid turning the ball over, it will greatly help the Longhorns chances of pulling off the upset. However, I still think the offense will need a big game from freshman running back Malcolm Brown. Brown has carried the ball 67 times for 327 yards and 1 score so far this season. The best way that Texas can keep the Oklahoma offense off the field is by establishing long scoring drives or simply moving the chains on the ground. If that plan is going to pan out, the Longhorns will need a big rushing performance and Brown is the guy to make it happen.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Longhorns defensive numbers have been posted against inferior opponents and I believe their pass defense is average at best. I do not expect this game to be a shootout by any means, however, I do expect the Sooners offense to be too much to handle and the Texas offense will lack the explosiveness to respond. Take Oklahoma -9.5.
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