Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 24, 2016 7:30 PM EDT
Where: McLANE Stadium, WACO, TX
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OK STATE +9.5/BAYLOR -9.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
The Baylor Bears will host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a huge Big 12 showdown in Waco, Texas on Saturday, September 24, 2016 with a scheduled kick-off at 7:30 PM kick-off. Both teams enter off wins. Oklahoma State enters this fixture off a 45-38 victory against the Pitt Panthers in Stillwater, last Saturday. Baylor comes in off a 38-10 demolition job of Rice in Houston, last Friday. When these two met last year in Stillwater, Baylor defeated Oklahoma State 45-35. The game will be broadcasted on ESPN for a national audience.
These two teams have been participants in some volcanic affairs over the years. In the previous six meetings between both sides, both the Pokes and the Bears have won three of these collisions, often with huge implications on the line. Many Big 12 contest evolve to shootouts where the numbers can exceed 100 points scored and a 1,000 yards of offense easily generated among the players. Oklahoma State and Baylor are your prototypical Big 12 outfit as both teams currently average scoring 44.3 points per game. Last yearís contest between the two resulted in over 1,100 yards of offense cultivated between the two feuding combatants. Thus it may be safe to assume that takers can expect both teams to leave the defense at home.
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Baylor enters at 3-0 in this fixture but they have yet to cover this year. While the figures are staggering right now, it is wise not to be consumed by Baylorís apparently impressive defensive numbers, as those statistics were produced against Northwest State, SMU and Rice. None of these teams were construed as any potential trouble for Baylor. Baylorís offense took advantage of these teamsí weak defenses but even in their wins, they failed to cover on all occasions. Baylor is anchored by an impressive quarterback in Seth Russell and showcases a gifted talent at wide receiver in K.D. Cannon. Even after Art Briles was sacked by Baylorís athletic director, the Bears have not lost their step by any capacity. Baylor currently averages 553.7 yards per game on offensive, mirroring the staggering numbers they have produced in years past. Their system is simply infectious.
For Oklahoma State, they responded nicely after losing at home two weeks ago to Central Michigan as a 17.5 point home favorite. Oklahoma Stateís defense has been a porous outfit and thus the Chippewas were able to hang around and stun the Pokes on a prayer in the end zone to pull off the shocker. Nevertheless, Oklahoma State would come back with a respectable 45-38 win against the Pitt Panthers. The Cowboys feature an efficient quarterback in Mason Rudolph and perhaps one of the gameís best receivers in James Washington. Baylor does not have an answer on defense to quell the onslaught of this playmaker.
In any shootout, the strategy is to always take the points especially when that amount is in excess of a touchdown. This market is a mirror of last yearís result as Baylor defeated Oklahoma State by 10 in their most recent encounter. Furthermore, both teams have won three the last six meetings, displaying the competitive grit and element in this conference clash. Betting is as much about psychological perception as it is real probabilities. In all likelihood the Cowboys are taking back more points because the Central Michigan loss is still fresh in the mind of many who fancy the Pokes.
Still with this being said, Baylor has not seen a team like Oklahoma State this year in terms of offensive proficiency. In fact, the Bears have not even faced a team as good as Pittsburgh. With respect to these aforementioned details, the Bears are likely once again spotting too many points to an opponent by virtue of perceived home field advantage and the fallacy of a stronger win and loss record. With respect to the fact this will likely be a game with over 1,000 yards of offense generated, we will take full advantage and take back an offense-oriented team in a potential 100-point slugfest with over a touchdown. Pokes with the points is the call.
KEITHís Pick to Cover the Point Spread: OKLAHOMA STATE +9.5
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