No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1 2-2-1 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (3-3 2-3 ATS) Floyd Casey Stadium Waco, Texas 12:30 PM EST Saturday October 24, 2009
By Jason Green of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cowboys -10 / Bears +10
Over/Under: 51.5
In a Big 12 match up this Saturday afternoon the .500 Baylor Bears host the 15th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys. After losing their 2nd game of the season the Cowboys have won 4 straight and they are in 1st place in the Big 12 tied with Texas in the South Division. Baylor has lost 2 games in a row and they have yet to win a game in the Big 12 (0-2), but they can play spoiler to the Cowboys with a home win in this game. The Bears' defense has struggled in their last 2 losses almost giving up an average of 30 points per game.
In their last game the Bears lost to Iowa State 24-10 while the Cowboys beat Missouri 33-17.
In their win over Missouri, OSU snapped a 4 game losing streak to Mizzu, but they did not look great doing it. The Tigers had a great game passing the ball with 325 yards through the air, but the Cowboys almost doubled the Tigers up in rushing yards (124 to 68) and Mizzu had 4 turnovers in the game while the Cowboys did not have any. After giving up 17 points in the first half the Cowboys' D clamped down, as Mizzu failed to score for the rest of the game. The Cowboys were favored by 7 points in the game so they covered the spread and the posted total of 55 points was not reached since 50 points was scored in the game.
In their loss to Iowa State the Baylor offense and defense had a lapse and they turned the ball over 3 times. The Bears did have more passing yards (275 to 214), but Iowa State killed them on the ground out-gaining them 240 yards to 89 yards. Baylor could not take an advantage of an Iowa State team that had not won a Big 12 game since 2007. The Bears scored a meaningless TD late in the game, but the game was never close, as Iowa State dominated them on both sides of the ball. The Bears were favored by 4 points in the game so obviously they did not cover the spread.
Baylor ranks 100th in the nation at defending the run, which is not good since the Cowboys have a solid rushing attack led by Keith Toston (497 yds 5 TD), who is averaging just over 5 yards per carry.
The Cowboys are not all about a rushing offense, as QB Zac Robinson is solid (1,297 yds 9 TD 3 INT) and even though NFL prospect Dez Bryant is still suspended the Cowboys do have a few other legit targets.
Overall, Baylor ranks 95th in the nation on defense and they front line D is weak as well with only 6 sacks in 6 games. To make matters worse the Cowboys average more total yards, rushing yards, and points scored per game.
The one chance that the Bears may have in this game is if they get into a shootout. That is not likely since the Bears have scored just 17 points in two Big 12 games. Baylor QB Nick Florence has started since game 4, but he and the whole Baylor offense is having trouble putting points up on the board.
Oklahoma State does not have the best defense, as they only rank 65th in the nation. They have also had trouble getting to the opposing QB with only 6 sacks in 6 games.
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Both teams have had their problems with turnovers, as each has 11 for the season. However, the Bears can't turn over the ball in this game, as the more their D is on the field the less likely it is that they will win.
In a couple of trends for this game The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Bears and the Cowboys have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Bears.
Jason's Pick: Can the Bears D, which only ranks 95th stop the Cowboys from scoring? I think not, as the Cowboys are much better on both sides of the ball and even though this game is at Baylor OSU will win this game and cover the spread.
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