Oklahoma Sooners (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1st, 5:00pm EST
Where: Amon G Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: OKL -3 / TCU +3
Over/Under Total: OFF
This Saturday afternoon we have a great Big 12 showdown between the Oklahoma Sooners and the TCU Horned Frogs. Coming into 2016, both teams had high hopes. Oklahoma was hoping to get themselves back into the College Football Playoff, while TCU was primed to make a run at the Big 12 title and then who knows what else. Well, Oklahoma has started 2016 with major disappointment. They lost their season opener to Houston then two weeks later got beat by a very good Ohio State team. It is not like Oklahoma is losing to bad teams, but if you were a Final Four team, you find a way to win at least one of those games. TCU just like Oklahoma had high hopes for 2016. TCU sits at 2-1 overall after losing to Arkansas a couple of weeks ago in what was a great game. TCU still has a great shot to win the Big 12, but this game against the Sooners is huge. Oklahoma has already kissed their national title hopes goodbye, but they could still potentially win the conference but if they plan to do that, this game is a must.
The spread in this one has TCU as a three point home underdog to the Sooners. The total points line has yet to be posted. As of Tuesday morning, much of the action was on the Sooners to get the road cover over TCU. 61% of the action was on Oklahoma and it has caused the line to shift a half point to even a whole point in some books.
TCU has played well this season. They had a tough loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks but other than slip up, they have been rather dominant. The Frogs average 380 passing yards a game (6th in the nation) and another 196 yards on the ground per contest (50th in the nation). This team can and will score points. On the defensive side of the ball, TCU is not awful, just not stellar. Averaging 26.3 points per game given up ranks them right around the middle of FBS teams, but they also boast the 18th best scoring offense to help balance this out. The key to this game for TCU is to pressure Baker Mayfield, the Oklahoma quarterback. This can only be done one way though and that is stop the run game and make the Sooners throw the ball. If Samje Perrine gets rolling and the Sooners get the playaction working which would keep the TCU defense on their heels, then Oklahoma would control the tempo of the game and this would be a huge disadvantage for TCU.
Oklahoma is hungry. They are off to the worst start possible and a third loss in just four games would ruin what was supposed to be a great season. Yes, like I said earlier, Oklahoma lost to two great teams, but they themselves were supposed to be great. This is a game that Oklahoma MUST win. They are on the road, in conference, against a team that could win the Big 12 title. The key is to slow down TCU’s offense. Again, going back to the tempo and ball control, this is what Oklahoma must do. They do not want to get into a shootout with TCU…they simply would not win. They need to be a grind it out game. Long scoring drives, no turnovers, and slow down TCU. If Oklahoma can keep this game in the low 20s, then I think they have a shot to win. If TCU gets in the mid 30s or so…night night and Oklahoma goes home 1-3.
This is really a tough game to pick. It really is. I think TCU is just as if not more talented than Oklahoma. I also like the home field advantage that TCU will have on Saturday. The spread is a little suspect and I think it is a trap. I believe the books want the money on TCU. I could be wrong because I am from time to time (aka – often) but this season, you can look back at my picks and I have done quite well in both NFL and NCAA football. I am going on a limb and say that Oklahoma wins this game and wins it rather easily. They are hungry. They are angry. And they are due to play a great game. Oklahoma will take down TCU 28-23.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Oklahoma minus the points!
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