No. 22 Oregon State Beavers (0-0) vs. No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs (0-0), Week 1 College Football, September 4, 2010 TV: ESPN 7:45 p.m. EST. Cowboy’s Stadium, Arlington, Texas
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oregon State +12.5/TCU -12.5
Over/Under: 50.5
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TCU and Oregon State will both get a chance to play in perhaps the most celebrated college football opener this season as they go head to head on September 4th at Cowboys Stadium.
This game will be televised live on ESPN and might just be the pace setting matchup for this year’s BCS busting teams. TCU is ranked No. 7 in the country while the Beavers are No. 22. Both teams will be looking to establish an early season tone. These two teams lost in bowl games last season as TCU dropped to Boise State 17-10 and OSU lost to BYU 44-20. Now they return for a fresh start on the same field that will host this year’s Superbowl. You would think a beaver could easily over power a frog but in this case it may be the Frog who has the last laugh.
TCU was 12-1 last season, going undefeated until they ran into Kellen Moore and the Boise State Broncos. The Horned Frogs were 8-5 ATS overall going 3-4 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS on the road. The Frogs were 6-5-2 O/U overall with the O/U (3-2-2 at home and 3-3 away).
With only one sophomore projected to start on offense the Horned Frogs are a solid veteran upper classmen squad led by fourth year starter QB, Andy Dalton. Dalton will also have most of his offensive weapons returning with the exception of WR Ryan Christian, but the balanced attack between the passing game and the run will certainly make TCU a potent foe. If you’re gonna bet on a team scoring a lot of points- TCU is your ticket! The only potential issue that may slow this team down is if Dalton suffers an injury, then you might want to put all your chips on the hard-ways and let the dice roll off the back wall. TCU has four returning starters from last season’s receiving crew coupled with their spread offense, which means they can all be on the field at the same time. The Frogs run the option and that is why Dalton is a risk for injury due to the crushing blows a QB can take from the defense; without a solid backup QB the Frogs will be playing with fire.
TCU’s defense will be tough but they are missing four studs in DE Jerry Hughes, LB Daryl Washington, and CBs Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders. Certainly the biggest loss on defense is Jerry Hughes and his speed but that being said, they will not be as fast but they will be big and strong. We look for CB Greg McCoy, who is lightning quick, to be a huge playmaker for the Frogs.
Oregon State is definitely asking for a fight by taking on TCU even though it’s supposedly in a “neutral” location- yeah, right! I thought neutral meant somewhere in the middle? Wouldn’t that mean they should play somewhere along the Arizona and Nevada border? Las Vegas would be a great spot! Oh well, either way the Beavers may have asked for more than they can smack with their tails.
OSU’s defense is suspect to give up a ton of rushing yards as they did in last year’s Civil War with rival Oregon. Coupled with a new QB and the soft run defense I like TCU’s chances to run away with this game on their “neutral” turf.
However, the Beaver’s do have pretty much the same offensive squad returning outside of former QB Sean Canfield who is replaced by strong-armed sophomore Ryan Katz. Katz will enjoy a veteran cast, especially the Rodgers brothers as Jacquizz rushed for over 1400 yards and 21 TDs last year while his brother James pulled in 91 catches for over 1000 yards and 9 scores.
OSU was 7-5 ATS last year going 2-4 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS on the road. The Beavers finished with an 8-5 mark and took third in the PAC 10 last season.
This matchup opened with TCU -13.5 with the O/U at 53.5. The line has simmered down a bit at TCU -12.5 and the O/U 50.5, but you can find -13 at some offshore casinos and as of this writing the Las Vegas Hilton Sports Book has TCU at -11.5.
Wilson’s Pick to Cover: TCU likely wins this one straight up but the Beavers are vastly underrated and are a solid pick to get the money. Luck to ya.
This game would look real good with the Beavs getting +31.5 on a 20 point teaser at 5Dimes!
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