Oregon Ducks (3-5 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 7PM EST
Where: Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
by Scott, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ORE +17/USC -17
Over/Under Total: 78.5
In Pac-12 action from the City of Angels, the Oregon Ducks face the USC Trojans on Saturday. USC has been on a surge of late with four straight wins, including a 45-24 win over Cal last Thursday. After a 1-3 start, they have seen QB Sam Darnold take this offense to new heights and are now 4-2 in conference and are suddenly a team with some hope moving forward. Oregon, meanwhile, broke a miserable 5-game losing streak with a 54-35 win over Arizona State on Saturday. Now at 3-5, they look to try to make something of a season that finds the Ducks in as bad a state as they’ve been in years.
Oregon really needed the win over ASU last week. In their five game losing streak, they had seen almost everything go wrong, namely a defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed. In the three games leading up to the win over ASU, they had allowed a combined 173 points. So giving up 35 to the Sun Devils was actually a step forward. They are ranked 127th in defense in the country. New coordinator Brady Hoke hasn’t been able to stop the slide of a group that has played at a slapstick level for a large chunk of the season. The former conference power is now struggling to post wins in the Pac-12. It’s a disheartening situation to say the least.
We think back to last season when a on-their-back Oregon team sprung to life. Their defense tightened up with their offense starting to look like their old self. Maybe the ASU win was a sign of another spurt. At 2-5, maybe the alarms really started sounding in their heads. Last year serves as a reminder that you can never fully bury this team with a clear head. They have enough talent on that sideline to at least turn things around a little.
STOP WASTING YOUR MONEY FELLAS! DUMP YOUR OVER-PRICED BOOKIE TODAY AND START WAGERING ON GAMES AT ONLY -105 AT THE WEB'S BEST! --> 5DIMES!
Oregon has turned to freshman Justin Herbert to commandeer the offense. In his last two games, he has ten TD passes and only one pick. The Oregon offense has scored 103 points in the last two games and looks to be on the rise. They ran the ball well, with Tony Brooks-James getting off for a big game. Both he and Royce Freeman have run for 8 TDs. They actually have pretty good balance on offense between the run and the pass. Darren Carrington, Charles Nelson, and Pharaoh Brown contribute in the aerial attack. And for the last few weeks, we’ve seen the Ducks start to put these weapons to use.
After all, USC was able to turn it around and they were really looking bad through the first month of the season. Both sides of the ball have come around some in the past 4 games with consecutive wins over Arizona State, ranked Colorado, Arizona, and Cal. They’ve looked even better at home where they are this week. They look to make it 5 games in a row this week with some big tests still ahead where they can salvage a good season after such a sloppy start.
Not to knock previous starting QB Max Browne, but the Trojans look a lot better with Sam Darnold behind center. He has 18 touchdowns against just three picks. He also has 10 touchdowns against one pick in his last two games. He is accurate with the ball and has brought out the best of a vast arsenal of talent. Ronald Jones, Justin Davis (questionable), and Aca’Cedric Ware provide a three-pronged rushing attack that really makes an impact. Darnold also adds a dimension with his legs, having made some useful runs and scoring a few touchdowns.
Darnold has allowed the Southern Cal passing game to take flight. After a slow start with Browne in there, JuJu Smith-Schuster has started getting back to the business of being the best receiver in the conference. Twice in the last four games, he has scored three touchdowns in a game. Receiver Darreus Rogers has made some big contributions in the passing game, as has Deontay Burnett. The Trojans have scored 93 points combined in their last two games.
At their best, the SC defense is pretty balanced, though far from infallible. In their four game win streak, they have given up a combined 75 points, a pretty solid total against the high-flying offenses they face in this conference. They have held teams that put up a lot of points, like Cal, to very manageable amounts of production. They’ve been getting after the quarterback a little better, are getting some turnovers, and are making less mistakes in recent weeks.
The Southern Cal defense might be the key for the purposes of betting on this game. Oregon’s offense has perhaps found a lifeline with a new QB in there, just as USC did about a month ago when they threw Darnold in the starting role. The Trojans “D” has been holding opposing offenses to very little, but Oregon might be able to throw up some points. It could make covering the big number a bit problematic for the Trojans. I think USC will win, but I think they’ll struggle in getting that much separation from the Ducks, who may have subtly seen their offense step up in the last two weeks. I’m taking the points.
Scott's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oregon Ducks plus 17 points.
Bet your pick for this game using your credit card at an online bookie where it WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a generous 50% signup bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500! (Example: Deposit $500 and they'll give you an extra $250 FREE!) Find this great offer at Bovada Sportsbook.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!