Oregon State Beavers (8-3) 6-3 ATS, 4-6 O/U at Oregon Ducks (9-2) 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U, Civil War Rivarly Game, Thursday December 3, 2009 Autzen Stadium Eugene, Oregon
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oregon State +10.5/Oregon -10.5
Over/Under: N/A
This Thursday night will not be just another Civil War between the two Oregon schools but it will also have Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl implications.
The Oregon Ducks managed to slip by the Arizona Wildcats last week albeit in double overtime 44-41. The Duck’s QB Jeremiah Masoli scored the game winning touchdown on a 1-yard run. With the win the Ducks kept their post season options in their own hands as they host their in-state rivals for a shot at Pasadena.
Masoli finished the game last week with 284 yards on 26 of 47 passing and 3 touchdowns to 1 INT. Oregon’s LaMichael James continued to be a dominant force on the ground as he carried the ball for 117 yards on 19 carries.
Oregon State is coming off of a huge win at Washington State 42-10. Of course the Cougars are not even close to the level of competition within the Pac-10 but the Beavers were still impressive. OSU’s QB, Sean Canfield, was 22 of 29 for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Jacquizz Rodgers carried the pigskin 24 times for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns.
This may be one the closest matchups on paper between the two Oregon squads. Both teams are averaging over 30 points per game. OSU is putting up 32.4 and Oregon is scoring 37.7 per effort. The Beavers average 272 yards passing and 150 yards rushing per outing.
Both teams allow 22 points per game to their opponents. The OSU defense is stronger against the run as they only allow 98 yards rushing per contest but they give up 242 yards through the air. The Ducks allow 130 yards on the ground and 193 through the air.
The Beavers are 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, and 1-4 O/U on the road this season. OSU is also 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U as the underdog this year.
Oregon is 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS, and 5-1 O/U at home this season, and they are 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, and 7-1 O/U as the favorite this year.
This game should be an instant classic if both teams play like they’re capable of playing. The Beavers bring in the constant threat of offensive brothers Jacquizz and James Rodgers. James is one of the best receivers in the Pac-10 while his brother Jacquizz has torched defenses every week since his arrival in the conference.
Oregon is playing at home in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium where they are undefeated and always tough. The Ducks will only be as good as their QB Masoli. Masoli leads the Ducks charge as he is a threat both on the ground and through the air.
This will be the biggest game in the Pac-10 this week as both teams will try to lock in a spot at the top of the Pac-10.
The betting line on this game opened at Oregon -10.5. Most online casinos are showing Oregon -9.5 with the total off.
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The Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games. The over is 9-1-1 in Oregon’s last 11 home games.
Sean Canfield has a 70 percent completion rate while Masoli has a 58 percent completion rate. Canfield has 19 TD passes and 6 picks. Masoli has 14 TD passes and 4 INTs. Both QBs can make big plays but Masoli is the better playmaker when it counts.
I like this matchup especially with all that’s on the line. Oregon is too tough at home and they slip by a very good Beaver team to earn a spot in Pasadena.
Wilson’s Pick: I like UO Ducks to win but the OSU Beavs to cover. Oregon 38, Oregon State 28. Luck to ya.
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