Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS), Week 6 College Football, 3:30 p.m. EST, Saturday, October 9, 2010, Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind. TV: NBC
by Ryno, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Pitt +6/ND -6
Over/Under Total: 49.5
Bet on the Pit/ND game using your checking account and to get a generous 100% bonus where you can deposit up to $125 and get up to $125 FREE at one of the web's oldest and most stable online sportsbooks: Sportsinteraction.
Pittsburgh and Notre Dame are two college football teams that have underperformed thus far this season. Both teams need to get a win desperately. Neither team can afford to lose when Pitt and Notre Dame face either Saturday afternoon in South Bend.
Pitt came into the season with high expectations and a top 25 national ranking. The Panthers have a star running back in Dion Lewis who was expected to possibly contend for a Heisman Trophy. But the Panthers started the season on a bad note with a 27-24 loss at Utah. After getting an easy win over FCS team New Hampshire, 38-16, the Panthers were blown out at home by Miami, 31-3.
Last week, the Panthers blew out Florida International, a team they were expected to blow out, 44-17. Pitt only led 13-10 at the half and 16-10 after the third quarter before blowing the game open in the final quarter. Lewis injured his shoulder and did not play in that game, and his status is unknown for this week's game at Notre Dame. In the win over FIU, Ray Graham filled in at RB and had 29 carries for 277 yards and three touchdowns. With that performance, he is sure to still get a good amount of carries, even if Lewis is back from his injury. Pitt QB Tim Sunseri was 15-for-23 for 169 yards and a touchdown.
For the season, Graham is vastly outperforming Lewis. Graham has 52 carries for 492 yards and five touchdowns with a tremendous 9.5 yards-per-carry average. Lewis has 47 carries for 143 yards and two touchdowns with a 3.0 yards-per-carry average. Sunseri has 689 passing yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions with a 63 completion percentage.
Notre Dame started its season on a good note with a 23-12 home win over Purdue. But then things turned ugly. The Fighting Irish had a lead late in the game at home over Michigan but gave up a game-winning touchdown in the final minute to lose the game, 28-24. The next week, they lost in overtime at Michigan State, 34-31. It got real ugly the next week as the Irish lost their third consecutive game, this time in blowout fashion at home to Stanford, 37-14.
The Irish rebounded last week with a nice road victory at Boston College, 31-13. The Irish got off to a great start with a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and cruised from there for the victory. QB Dayne Crist was 24-for-44 passing for 203 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. RB Armando Allen had 19 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown. WR Theo Riddick had nine receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown, and Michael Floyd had four receptions for 69 yards.
The Irish did a great job against the run last week, holding Boston College to 34 yards rushing. If they can stop the run like that against Pitt, it will be an easy victory. The Panthers rely heavily on the running of Lewis and Graham. For the season, Notre Dame is allowing 152.8 rush yards per game, while Pitt is allowing 97 rush yards per game.
Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against the Big East, 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite, and 0-6 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in Pitt's last six games following a SU win. The under is 6-1 in Notre Dame's last seven home games, 6-1 in its last seven games as a favorite, 5-1 in its last six games as a home favorite, 4-1 in its last five non-conference games, and 4-1 in its last five games overall.
Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Pitt. The underdog and the road team are both 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.
Ryno's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame is horrible. Pittsburgh COULD win this game straight up so with that being said. I'm taking the Panthers and those juicy 6 points!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2015 College Football Predictions - (2016 article coming soon!) Badger gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2016 National Championship game.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football handicapper Bob gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2016 National Championship. Despite not liking to side with heavy favorites, he believes the Alabama Crimson Tide (+950) are the team to beat.
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas A&M DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!