2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship Picks
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Back in January, the Auburn Tigers capped off a 'perfect season' by winning the 2011 BCS National Championship. Before the season, Auburn was a huge longshot to win the National Championship as they were receiving 50 to 1 odds at some online sportsbooks. A year before the Alabama Crimson Tide emerged from near 20 to 1 odds to win the 2010 BCS National Championship. Needless to say if you can correctly 'predict' a future National Championship winner before the season begins, then you have the possibility to earn some big time money. Therefore as the upcoming College Football season approaches, we put some heightened focus on the 2012 BCS National Championship odds while providing some expert advice on the best teams to gamble on this season.
Let's take a look at the contenders for the 2012 BCS National Championship. As you can see, I have separated teams into 3 different categories: the favorites, the outsiders, and the long shots. Enjoy!
The Favorites
Oklahoma Sooners (4.5-to-1)
Alabama Crimson Tide (5.5-to-1)
Florida State Seminoles (10-to-1)
LSU Tigers (12-to-1)
Boise State Broncos (14-to-1)
Oregon Ducks (14-to-1)
Odds makers have placed the Oklahoma Sooners as the ultimate favorites to win the 2012 BCS National Championship. The Sooners are expected to have one of the most potent offenses in the country led by QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles who are both on the pre-season Heisman Trophy watch list. Also, the Sooners schedule looks to be a bit more manageable with Nebraska moving to the Big Ten. Not to mention both Texas and Missouri appear to be preparing for rebuilding type seasons. Oklahoma will face a huge test in their second game of the season when the square off in a rematch with no. 5 Florida State. The Sooners knocked off the Seminoles 47-17 last year in Norman, but will have to make the trip to Florida State this year. If the Sooners can produce another victory over the Seminoles early this season, there only big challenges left will be late in the season against Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.
Alabama brought home the National Championship just two years ago. After a 10-3 season in what was expected to be a rebuilding year, many think Coach Nick Saban has the Crimson Tide poised for another National Championship run. This could be the most dominant Alabama defense in the Saban era as they return 9 starters from a group that ranked 5th nationally last year. However, the offense will have to replace standouts QB Greg McElroy and WR Julio Jones. The Crimson Tide offense will turn to an inexperienced quarterback in sophomore A.J McCarron or possibly freshman Phillip Sims. Running back Trent Richardson is a proven threat on the ground, but the offense will need to find some emerging playmakers at the quarterback and wide receiver positions to have a year that meets expectations.
If you want to talk about an historical tyrant rising back to power, look no further than the Florida State Seminoles. Two decades ago, the Seminoles were a threat to win the National Championship every year. This season Coach Jimbo Fisher will try to march the Seminoles back to glory. The Seminoles defense ended the 2010 regular season playing extremely well giving up just 353 yards per game and they will return 8 starters from that unit which should make them even stronger in 2011. The offense also returns a ton of talent that was able to produce a ton of points last season. The only big question mark stands at the quarterback position after the loss of QB Christian Ponder. Junior E.J Manuel got some playing time at the end of the 2010 season and showed some promising signs that he could play well. If that happens, the Seminoles will be an extremely tough team to beat. Florida State will have a date with destiny on September 17th when they host the top ranked Oklahoma Sooners. If the Seminoles can knock off the Sooners, the rest of their schedule is fairly weak giving the possibility to run the table.
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The LSU Tigers are among the group of favorites as well because they return a ton of talent from a team that went 11-2 last season. LSU will have another ferocious SEC style defense that will keep opposing offenses anchored down. The offense relied heavily on the ground attack last season that accounted for over 2,400 yards rushing. QB Jordan Jefferson is the x-factor in the offensive equation. Jefferson numbers from last season were hardly admirable completing just 56% passing with 1,411 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The LSU offense simply did not have that homerun threat through the passing game that you need to stabilize a heavily favored rushing offense. If Jefferson improves greatly throwing the football, the Tigers have all the other ingredients to put together a huge season.
Everyone loves the underdog, and the Boise State Broncos seem to carry the "underdog" title every year. The Broncos are not from one of the automatic BCS Bowl Conferences. Therefore the Broncos would need to have an undefeated season and also hope that there are not any other undefeated teams in order to just get the opportunity to play in the National Championship. However, the Broncos are 38-2 over the last 3 seasons and have proven they can play against the top teams in the country. Also, the Broncos helped their strength of schedule as they are slated in a huge season opener against the Georgia Bulldogs. If the Broncos knock off one of the SEC powers, they can throw their name right back into the middle of the National Championship discussion again in 2011.
The Oregon Ducks are the 2011 BCS National Champion runner-ups as they just narrowly fell to the Auburn Tigers 22-19. However, the Ducks are poised with the tools to possibly make a repeat run at the National Championship. Chip Kelly's fast paced Oregon offense is extremely difficult to defend and also wears down defenses through the course of 4 quarters. Returning on offense will be the huge big play threat of running back LaMichael James who led the nation with 1,731 yards on the ground last season. Also, Darron Thomas returns at the quarterback position after a solid 2010 campaign. Therefore, the Ducks offense will have plenty of firepower to rack up a ton of points and wreak havoc on defenses again this year. Oregon meets no. 4 LSU in the season opener which will be a huge indicator of their National Championship chances.
The Outsiders
Florida Gators (18-to-1)
Wisconsin Badgers (18-to-1)
Stanford Cardinals (20-to-1)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (22-to-1)
South Carolina Gamecocks (25-to-1)
Honestly, I have no idea how the Florida Gators are receiving 18 to 1 odds for the National Championship. I would not necessarily take this bet at 100 to 1 odds. The Gators are coming off a 2010 season that was marked by an 8-5 record. Additionally this will be the first season under the helm of head coach Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. Despite the coaching change, the Gators also have a lot of work to do on the field. Both offensive and defensive lines have the least amount of depth in recent memory. Also, quarterback John Brantley has yet to prove that he can be a consistent leader on the field. Sure, the Gators still have a tremendous amount of talent but there are just too many question marks surrounding the 2011 season for me to realistically consider them a threat to win any BCS Bowl yet alone the National Championship.
However, the Wisconsin Badgers have a team that could legitimately contend. At the end of last year, Wisconsin was one of the hottest teams in the country ending the regular season at a mark of 11-1. This season the Badgers appear to be the best the Big Ten has to offer. Russell Wilson recently transferred from North Carolina State and will likely be the starter this season which I believe will help the offense significantly. The Badgers were among the best rushing teams in the country last season posting 3,194 yards on the ground. With the return of tailbacks James White and Montee Ball along with a veteran offensive line, the Badgers should be a dangerous ground force yet again. There will be some talent to replace on the defensive side of the ball. However, the Badgers have a window of opportunity if a few things fall into place this season.
The Stanford Cardinals had a breakout season in 2010 setting a school record for wins with a mark of 12-1 that was capped off with a victory over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. The Cardinals took the nation by surprise with one of the best offenses in the country responsible for 40 points per game. This season the Cardinals return Heisman Trophy runner-up quarterback Andrew Luck who passed up the option to turn pro despite the likelihood of being a possible top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. The offense also returns running back Stepfan Taylor who racked up over 1,100 rushing yards and 15 scores just a year ago. Therefore if the Stanford offense can replace talent at the wide receiver position, they should still be a strong team offensively. However, Coach Jim Harbaugh is now in the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers. Harbaugh was thought to be the mastermind behind the Cardinals rise to success. So it will be interesting to see what type of season the Cardinals put together as they attempt to battle another heavyweight contender in the Oregon Ducks for Pac 12 and national spotlight.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers will get their first crack at the Big Ten this season. In my opinion, I believe it was an excellent move by the Cornhuskers as their style of football resembles the Big Ten more than it does the Big 12. Luckily for the Cornhuskers, they may contend for the Big Ten Championship immediately. The Cornhuskers defense should be among the best in the conference especially along the defensive line. On offense, Nebraska returns QB Taylor Martinez who rushed for 965 yards while passing for an additional 1,631 yards last season. However, the offense will have to find emerging talent to fill the shoes of running back Roy Helu Jr and wide receiver Niles Paul. If that does not happen, the Cornhuskers offense may struggle at times this season. Overall I see the Cornhuskers contending for the Big Ten Championship, but not the National Championship.
Another team that you may want to keep an eye on this season is Coach Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks. Let's face it the SEC has produced the last 5 straight National Champions, so if you wanted to search for a potential National Championship contender then the SEC is a great place to start. South Carolina has yet to have a huge season despite playing in their first SEC Championship last year after a 9-5 campaign. However, the offense returns the best trio in the nation by way of QB Stephen Garcia, running back Marcus Lattimore, and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. Also the defense will be extremely strong anchored by possibly the best defensive line in the country. Looking at the schedule, the Gamecocks could likely be favorites in every game they play this season which is surely a first for South Carolina.
The Long Shots
Oklahoma State Cowboys (30-to-1)
Virginia Tech Hokies (30-to-1)
Texas A&M Aggies (40-to-1)
Georgia Bulldogs (50-to-1)
The Oklahoma State Cowboys had a huge 2010 season reaching the 11-2 mark and just barely missing out on the opportunity to play for the Big 12 Championship. This year expectations have sky rocketed with the return of a few homerun threats on offense by way of quarterback Brandon Weeden and last year's Biletnikoff Award Winner Justin Blackmon. Just to throw some statistics out, Weeden passed for 4,277 yards last season while Blackmon led the nation in receiving yards totaling 1,782. To have those two standouts returning along with the possibility of some upcoming emerging talent, the Cowboys offense should be dynamite in 2011. One reason that the Cowboys may be a team to gamble with is simply because they get the bulk of their tough games at home in Stillwater. Therefore if things fall into place their showdown with Oklahoma in the regular season finale could have National Championship implications rather than just Big 12 Championship implications.
Virginia Tech has consistently been the class of the ACC over the past few years. The Hokies have won the ACC Championship 3 out of the last 4 years and will be poised to accomplish that feat again this season. The reason the Hokies may be a solid pick to win the National Championship is because they have a very easy road to get there. Half the battle is just being able to make it to the National Championship Game. The Hokies do not play a single opponent that is ranked in the pre-season top 25 and they will be favored to win every game they play. Of course we remember the James Madison mishap a year ago, but this team should be much improved overall. The offense returns playmakers in running back David Wilson and wide receiver Jarrett Boykin. QB Logan Thomas has yet to have a lot of game time experience, but he is a big frame that should be able to contribute right away especially on the ground where the Hokies rush the ball very well. If the defense can improve, the Hokies could sneak into the National Title talk barring any unexpected upsets that plagued the team a year ago.
Another Big 12 long shot resides in College Station, Texas. The Texas A&M Aggies closed out the 2010 regular season extremely well winning their last 6 games. The Aggies offense received a spark midway through the season when they moved former wide receiver Ryan Tannehil behind center to the quarterback position. Tannehil delivered providing the consistency the offense needed and the Aggies were a completely different team from that point in the season. This year the Aggies should be extremely dangerous offensively. Tailback Cyrus Gray returns after rushing for nearly 1,200 yards just a year ago. Also, WR Jeff Fuller returns after racking up 1,066 yards. Despite the offensive power, the Aggies defense really helped them during the end of 2010 by shutting down opposing offenses. In the final 6 games of the regular season that we previously mentioned, the Aggies defense gave up just 18 points per game despite battling some of the best offenses in the country. With a ton of returning talent, the defensive unit should be even better in 2011.
Add the Georgia Bulldogs to the list of teams that people have an eye on in the SEC to emerge out of the pack. The Bulldogs are intriguing simply because Coach Mark Richt is feeling some pressure to push his team back into the National spotlight after a few mediocre type seasons and also because the Bulldogs have a rather accessible schedule this season that they need to cash-in on. Don't get me wrong, Georgia has a very talented team. However, they are also a very young team and I think some of the expectations may be a bit lofty. QB Aaron Murray is the only proven playmaker on offense. The Bulldogs have to find someone to replace star receiver A.J Green and also there are big question marks at the running back position where the offense will turn to freshman Isaiah Crowell to handle the rock. Defensively the Bulldogs struggled many times last year while trying to input the new 3-4 system under defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. The defense, just like the offense, will be full of youngsters that have little game time experience. That is not to say that the Bulldogs cannot play well, but their toughest two games of the year are in the opening two weeks of the season against Boise State and South Carolina. I just don't see this team having maturing that early in the season, but they will likely be strong by the end of the year.
Jay's Picks to Win the 2012 BCS Championship:
Who will win the BCS Championship?: Alabama Crimson Tide (5.5-to-1) - This may be the best defense to come out of the SEC in a very long time and that is saying a lot. The SEC is notorious for their potent defenses where they have excelled in the National Championship Game against those "high powered" offenses from the Big 12 and Pac 12. The SEC West is a juggernaut of talent this season, but the Crimson Tide should be the cream of the crop. I think they will emerge from the SEC with possibly one loss, but still make it to the National Championship Game where they will be prepared to bring the SEC home a 6th straight National Championship.
Longshot pick to win the National Title: Wisconsin Badgers (18-to-1) - The Badgers schedule plays perfectly into setting up a National Championship run. They should be able to work through the offensive quirks before a huge Saturday night game when they host Nebraska. If the Badgers can pick up the win at home, that sets the stage for a big game with Ohio State that could seal Wisconsin in the National Championship seat if come away undefeated through that stretch of games.
Super longshot prediction to win the BCS Title: Oklahoma State (30-to-1) - If there is a team that can spoil pre-season no. 1 Oklahoma's chances at a perfect season, Big 12 Championship, and all other big time expectations then it will likely be their rival in the Oklahoma State Cowboys. In fact the best offense in the Big 12 this season may very well reside in Stillwater. If the Cowboys can come up with big wins against the likes of Texas A&M and Oklahoma, then they could place themselves in the midst of the National Championship hunt. Considering 30 to 1 odds, the Cowboys may just be worth the gamble.
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