Purdue Boilermakers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
(0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS), Week 1 College Football, 3:30 p.m. EST, Saturday, September 4, 2010, Notre
Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind., TV: NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Purdue +11/Notre Dame -11
Over/Under: 52
Bet the Purdue/Notre Dame game at a sportsbook that offers it's players -105 college football betting odds rather than the standard -110! This will save you HUGE money over the course of the season! Take advantage of this great offer at the one and only 5Dimes.
The Brian Kelly era at storied Notre Dame begins with a solid test in the season opener Saturday (September 4th) in Notre Dame Stadium when the Irish take on their intra-state rival Purdue Boilermakers in South Bend.
Kelly, who was brought in from Cincinnati to try and resurrect the Irish after a four-game slide to finish the 2009 season that was sparked by an embarrassing 23-21 loss to Navy cost Charlie Weis his job, inherits a team without a proven quarterback since Jimmy Clausen also left town with Weis to the NFL.
In his first game on the sidelines at Notre Dame, Kelly will face a Boilermakers team that turns it’s fortunes over to quarterback Robert Marve, a transfer from Miami that is expected to give Purdue a chance to get into the upper half of the Big Ten standings this season.
Even with questions swirling around the Irish’s new leadership under Kelly, or lack of it at QB, the public hype and betting machine that is Notre Dame is still at full steam since the Irish are listed at either 10.5- or 11-point favorites at home at most sportsbooks.
The over/under total opened at 52 and is starting to slide to 51.5 or 51 at some of the offshore books on the Web.
The Irish still have some skill on offense with running back Armando Allen, TE Kyle Rudolph and receiver Michael Floyd back, but without a proven QB the Irish offense that was 5th overall in passing in 2009 (323.5 ypg) won’t even come close to reaching last season’s levels.
Junior Dayne Crist is pegged to replace Clausen as the signal caller and even though he also comes into Notre Dame from Southern California as a heralded recruit, he still has only 10 completions to his resume. Plus he’s playing on a recently surgically repaired knee and learning a completely new and different spread offense under the new Kelly regime.
Meanwhile, Marve’s transition to QB at Purdue took a major hit when running back Ralph Bolden blew out his knee in the spring. Without Bolden, who nearly broke 1,000 yards last year and had 11 total touchdowns, the Marve-to-Keith Smith connection is surely going to be the focus of the Boilermakers offense. Smith caught 91 balls for 1,100 yards last season, numbers that coach Danny Hope needs to go up for the Boilers in order to have a successful campaign in 2010.
Both teams bring back some talent on defense, with Notre Dame headlined by linebacker Manti Te’o and Purdue by end Ryan Kerrigan, but both units have plenty of room for improvement. Notre Dame finished ’09 ranked 63rd in the land allowing 25.9 points per game, Purdue was worse ending at 89th (29.1), so the total of 52 for this game is more an indication of the defenses and not about the offensive firepower. Purdue will have four new starters in it’s secondary too, so mistakes could become big plays and turn this game into a track meet.
Last year in Ross-Ade Stadium the Boilermakers nearly pulled off the miraculous comeback scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter, but it still wasn’t enough as the Irish held on for a 24-21 victory. It was, however, good enough for the late cover as 6.5-point underdogs. The 45-point game came in well under the final total of 59 last season.
The underdog has cashed for bettors historically in this matchup, as the dog has barked in four of the last five annual Irish-Boilers tilts.
Notre Dame has enjoyed the matchup on the field though, winning seven of the last 10 including a 4-1 SU mark at home in Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish are only 3-2 ATS in those same five home games in the series though, and just 1-2 in the last three.
The under is 3-1 in the last four seasons (5-4-1 in last 10), with a 2-2-1 mark in Notre Dame Stadium.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Kelly still has plenty of talent to work with, but with an unproven quarterback in Crist playing under live conditions against a real test in Purdue I can’t faithfully give away double- digits points. ND will win the game in Kelly’s debut, but Purdue covers again in a game that will turn into a shootout. Take Purdue plus the 11-points.
Check back every week as I give my college football picks WITH analysis at no cost to Predictem readers! These aren't second rate freebies either! There's nothing for sale here at Predictem. All our plays are the very same ones we play ourselves! I also cover the NFL too which can be found in the center content area of our NFL picks section.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
