Purdue Boilermakers (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS), Saturday, November 7th, 12 p.m. Eastern, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI; TV: Big Ten Network
By Oracle of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Purdue +4/Michigan -4
Both Purdue and Michigan head into Saturday’s Big Ten matchup mastering the art of changing into Jekyll and Hyde.
The Wolverines started off this season blazing hot and even found themselves in the Top 25 for the first time in head coach Rich Rodriguez’s tenure there. However, after starting out 4-0, they’ve lost four of their last five – all the losses coming in Big Ten play.
Meanwhile, Purdue struggled by losing five straight games before looking impressive in beating a highly ranked Ohio State squad, 26-18. The Boilermakers looked as though they went back to their former selves by getting walloped, 37-0, against Wisconsin last weekend.
So would the real Boilermakers and Wolverines please stand up?
Since the Wolverines have the better straight up record and are at Michigan Stadium for Saturday’s 12 p.m. Eastern showdown, they’re the favorites to open up at -4. The public has jumped all over the home team early on, so the line has already moved up to -6 at some online sportsbooks.
The over/under is currently set at 53.
These two teams have met the past two years with the home squad winning each game. Last season it was Purdue who won a 48-42 shootout. However, neither starting quarterback took part in that contest.
The Boliermakers were the slight favorites in that 2008 contest and covered in crunch time (-2.5) when Justin Siller’s touchdown pass with 26 seconds left gave them the six-point win.
Being at Michigan, though, gives the Wolverines a big advantage as far as covering the spread goes. A huge trend that bettors will need to notice is the 7-1-1 ATS mark for the home team in the last nine meetings. Add into the fact that Purdue is 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to the Big House, makes Saturday’s line that much tastier.
Right now the Wolverines are more worried about finding a rhythm. They’ve averaged just 12 points in their last two games, including scoring 13 last week against an Illinois team who had won just a single game all year long.
Freshman quarterback Tate Forcier was a force early in the year but has hit the proverbial wall. In his last four games he has thrown two picks and zero, yes, zero touchdowns. He’ll need to pick up the slack when Purdue comes to town.
In fact, one of Forcier’s favorite targets in Martavious Odom is questionable for Saturday’s contest with a knee injury.
But really, it won’t matter what Forcier does if Michigan’s defense performed like it did last week. In the 38-13 beat down by Illinois, the Wolverines gave up 500 total yards to a team averaging nearly 350 per game and 16 points. On the year, Michigan gives up over 25 points per game.
Purdue had a game to forget against Wisconsin a week ago. Quarterback Joey Elliot, who had been a relatively nice surprise, struggled mightily by going 5-for-23. Although off target most of the day, his receivers did drop 13 passes. Purdue’s normally stellar offense went into the game averaging over 400 yards, but came out of it averaging 365 on the year.
A steady diet of Ralph Bolden may be the cure for Purdue. He had a couple of 100 yards games to start the season, but hasn’t had one since. He only had 10 attempts against Wisconsin last week and has had just one touchdown in the past five games.
The Wolverines are 5-4 ATS on the season but don’t have many betting trends going their way. In fact, they’re just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as any kind of favorite.
BET MICHIGAN WOLVERINES GAMES AT REDUCED JUICE AT 5DIMES
Purdue’s trends aren’t any better, but they seem to bounce back after rough games the previous week. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 the prior game. Overall, though, they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last five.
Purdue’s struggles this year make the under trend big for them as well, as its 6-1 in their last seven. Michigan loves playing at home, though, with the over coming in four of the last five games.
The Boilermakers have a tough task as they haven’t won at the Big House since 2000. They struggled on the road last week as well and are looking to back that trend. Michigan is looking to regroup and become bowl eligible with a win.
Oracle’s Pick: It seems like all the signs are pointing toward Michigan in this one. But we’re going to buck the trends and go against the public. More than likely the line will keep moving, so if you can get Purdue plus a touchdown, take it!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2015 College Football Predictions - Badger gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2016 National Championship game.
2015 Heisman Trophy Predictions - Trevone Boykin (TCU QB) is favored to win the award at 7.5-1 odds but Bob says this is a sucker bet! Dak Prescott should be a contender and ball carriers Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette look good as well!
2016 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football handicapper Bob gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2016 National Championship. Despite not liking to side with heavy favorites, he believes the Alabama Crimson Tide (+950) are the team to beat.
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Ezekiel Elliott starts the season as a 6/1 favorite to win the award. Those that have seen crafty LSU Soph. Leonard Fournette think he's a lock though. Trevone Boykin brings experience and plays on a high scoring team. Cardale Jones won the big game last year and is listed as 12-1. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2015 BCS Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +500 followed by Oregon at +800, Ohio St. +850, LSU/Texas A&M +1200 and Florida/FSU both at +1400. Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
Fantasy College Football - Draft a fresh team every week! Leagues range from $2 to $420! You can play head to head or in big groups! Payouts take place approx. one hour after the final Saturday game.
The Spread - Who will cover the spread? They will! Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!