Purdue Boilermakers (3-5) (4-4 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) (3-4 ATS) Saturday, Oct. 31, 12pm ET, Camp Randall, ESPN2
by Evergreen of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Purdue +7/Wisconsin -7
Over/Under Total: 53
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Week 9 in the NCAA Football season is a little late to not know who you are as a team, but both squads in the Purdue v. Wisconsin match up are still trying to decide just exactly what kind of year they are having. The Badgers welcome the Boilermakers to Madison for a noon kick on Saturday with both teams trending in the opposite direction. Purdue was on the rocks early, but stunned Ohio State three weeks back and Wisconsin is trying to keep from losing three in a row after starting 5-0. Catch the noon ET kick on ESPN2.
Wisconsin opened in the early part of the week as 6.5 point favorites and has remained about the same with some online bookies having the Badgers at -7. You’ll find the Boilers at +220 or so on the money line with Bucky in the -260 to -290 range and the over/under for the game is set at 53.
Both teams should be fresh as both enter off bye weeks and will rekindle a rivalry last played in 2005/2006 when Wisconsin won both halves of the home and home by 24-3 and 31-20 margins. The road team is 4-1-1 against the spread in recent meetings between these schools with the favorite going 3-1-1 in the last five.
Purdue looked headed for a disaster season after opening 1-5, including losing four of those by a touchdown or less but has righted the ship a bit with the upset of OSU and followed that with a 21-14 win against Illinois. The Boilermakers like the underdog tag of late, going 4-1 against the spread in the last five as dogs but are only 1-5 ATS coming out of the bye week.
Wisconsin was on the edge of the top-25 after a perfect 5-0 start, but has been uneven in the two games since, losing 31-13 at Ohio State in a game where they out gained the Buckeyes by 184, and dropping a 20-10 decision to Iowa after they led 10-0. The Badgers have fared well inside the Big Ten recently with a 5-2 mark against the spread in conference and have beat up on lesser opponents, compiling an 11-5 ATS record against sub-.500 teams.
The Boilermakers have been solid on offense to this point, averaging 254 pass yards and 401 total yards per game while scoring 27.6 points per contest. They run it well too, averaging 146 yards per game. The defense gives up a few too many points at 26.9 on average, and has been beat on the ground to the tune of 156 yards pre game. That could spell trouble against a strong run attack like Wisconsin’s.
Joey Elliott is the do-it-all QB for Purdue, throwing for 2,022 yards and 14 scores while adding 220 yards and three more touchdowns via the rush. Ralph Bolden leads the Boilers with 715 rushing yards and five score and the Keith Smith/Aaron Valentine receiving combination has over 100 catches for 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Wisconsin has shown more offensive balance than in years past, but is still run oriented. The Badgers average 184 yards per game on the ground and add 210 through the air to settle just inside the top-50 in total yardage per game. The points have been down from the 30+ point average they put up in non-conference, but they still produce 28.3 points per game overall.
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John Clay has assumed starting tailback duties for the Badgers and leads the team with 716 yards and 7 scores while Zach Brown serves as the change of pace back. Scott Tolzien calls the signals and has hit on 63% of his passes, but has 5 picks in his last two outings. The tight ends for Wisconsin are among the best in the nation with Garrett Graham and Lance Kendricks combining for 484 yards and six touchdown and both are matchup nightmares for opposing linebackers or safeties.
WR Royce Adams and WR Tommie Thomas are both listed as questionable on the Purdue injury report with RB John Clay, RB Zach Brown and OL Travis Frederick listed as DTD with minor injuries for the Badgers. Wisconsin did lose LB Mike Taylor for the season due to a knee injury suffered before the bye week.
Evergreen’s Pick: After two disappointing losses knocked Wisconsin down a couple of notches, they are likely to get back on track at home this weekend. Purdue can't shut down the run and once they commit another man to the box, the TE mismatch will burn the Boilers. Like most Big Ten games, this one is close through the third quarter but Bucky pulls out a 31-20 win.
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