South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS), 7:15 p.m. EST, College Football Week 10, Saturday, November 5, 2011, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas, TV: Fox
by Scotty L, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SC +4.5/Ark -4.5
Over/Under: OFF
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In a battle of one-loss top ten teams, the South Carolina Gamecocks travel to Arkansas to take on the Razorbacks on Saturday. Both squads are 7-1 and a break-even 4-4 this season at the betting windows. Arkansas still has unbeaten and top-ranked LSU left on their schedule--a team they beat last season. If either team wins out, SEC title honors or at least a BCS bowl game are realistic possibilities. This is big game to say the least.
The Razorbacks thumped South Carolina last season by 3 touchdowns, but a much closer game is expected this Saturday, with Arkansas a modest 4.5-point favorite. Arkansas features a nice passing attack, led by junior and first-year starter Tyler Wilson. His crew of pass catchers has 4 players with 20 or more receptions, featuring top WR Jarius Wright (44-709-7). With a negligible rush attack, one wonders how well the Razorbacks passing game will resonate against the Gamecocks, even at home.
USC boasts of one of the best pass defenses in the country, allowing a paltry 135 yards per game through the air. Their shutdown secondary will make it important for Arkansas to step up their running attack and RBs Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo will need to produce. The Gamecocks are only giving up an average of 17.1 points a game, so if the Razorbacks are to have a good offensive game, they will need to do it against one of the toughest defenses they will see all year.
A 3-point loss to Auburn in week 5 was the only setback for the Gamecocks this season, but most of their wins were close. They beat Georgia, Navy, and Mississippi State by 3 points or less. In their last 2 wins, they scored only 28 combined points against Mississippi State and Tennessee in games where their defense was largely responsible for getting the job done. Against Arkansas, one figures the Gamecocks’ offense will need to do a little better than that. Facing a Razorbacks “D” that is giving up an average of 16 points per game at home, South Carolina’s green sophomore QB Connor Shaw will need to play over his head.
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But the Gamecocks have mostly relied on a stout defense and excellent running back play from Marcus Lattimore (163-818-10). Lattimore’s season was unfortunately cut short. But again due to inury. But against Tennessee, freshman Brandon Wilds (28-137) was wonderful filling in and even Shaw chimed in with 64 yards on the ground. Whether that translates similarly against a more-formidable Arkansas team remains to be seen. One would like South Carolina’s chances more if Lattimore were still healthy.
There are a lot of points to consider in a game like this and as usually the case--many cancel each other out. Arkansas is at home, but South Carolina is unbeaten on the road. Arkansas is one of the top-ten passing teams in the nation, but South Carolina has one of the best pass defenses. But one matchup that favors a particular team is the South Carolina run vs. the Arkansas run “D.” The Alabama game was a case in point, where Arkansas had trouble stopping the Crimson Tide run, while their offense averaged under a yard per rush. Anything resembling that on Saturday would make it tough for Arkansas to win, much less cover.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This game could be quite the grog, with both teams struggling to establish a foothold. South Carolina is having trouble scoring, but their defense has been picking up the slack. The Gamecocks’ “D” figures to have another good game against the passing-inclined Razorbacks, so points will be precious.
There is little to separate the two teams. These conference rivals are well-matched and each squad has shown a penchant for playing close games in recent weeks. Look for more of that on Saturday, with a neck-and-neck battle that could come down who scores last. In a tight game like this, the team getting points seems the best choice. My prediction is that the South Carolina Gamecocks wll cover the 4.5 points.
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