College Football – Handicapping Styles
by Jerald of Predictem.com
There are many ways to handicap a college football game. The old adage “different strokes for different folks” can be applied to this venture. Let’s look at some of the different styles.
Fundamental approach – This approach looks at the various matchups of the 2 teams to try to determine which side will have an advantage. This can be done by looking at statistics such as rushing yards per game or rushing yards per play or any other statistic that you feel is relevant to a team having success. Other handicappers use a set of power ratings to determine which team has the better chance of winning. You can also analyze the matchups by watching the game; there are many handicappers that have success with this because they are adept at spotting strengths and weaknesses of teams.
Technical approach – This approach use trends and/or systems that exist to support one team or the other. There are many trends that can be found but the important thing for the handicapper is to determine which of these trends or systems are relevant. Do not base your plays on a trend that is meaningless or a trend that is back fitted to meet certain criteria. Any trend that you base a play on should have a reason that it works.
Situational approach – This approach will look at the teams and the situation they are in. Are they coming off a big win? Are they looking ahead to next week? How do they perform against this particular team? Do they play well after a loss? These are all questions that can help you determine how a team will perform in their upcoming game.
Line analysis – This approach looks at the line movement to determine which side to play. This is a very difficult concept to grasp because it is not always clear why a line is doing what it is. This approach is probably best employed by the most experienced of handicappers because there can be a lot of misinformation out there.
The successful handicapper will know which approach or combination of approaches works for him. There are many ways to come up with a winner but the challenge is to determine what works best for you.
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Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
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Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
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