TCU Horned Frogs (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS), 3:30 p.m. EST, College Football Week 11, Saturday, November 12, 2011, Broncos Stadium, Boise, Idaho, TV: Versus
by Scotty L, Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Texas Christian +15/BSU -15
Over/Under Total: 58.5
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The TCU Horned Frogs travel NW to take on the unbeaten Boise State Broncos on Saturday afternoon. These are two teams with clear goals. Boise State wants to win out and see what happens, hoping some of the few teams ranked above them lose, which could pave the way to a national championship game. TCU, meanwhile, at 7-2 has ruled out their BCS bowl hopes, but still has an outside shot at winning their conference.
To do so, TCU will need to defeat the clear cream of their conference and the odds don’t favor it. Texas Christian has done well in regrouping from the loss of their star QB Andy Dalton--now winning games with the upstart Cincinnati Bengals. 6’5” sophomore QB Casey Pachall has been developing and has his team on a bit of roll--with 4 straight wins.
The Horned Frogs are 16th in the nation in rushing, featuring an effective 3-pronged attack. Waymon James (652 yards), Matthew Tucker (532 yards), and Ed Wesley (528 yards) have accounted for 16 touchdowns and keep opposing defenses off-balance. This sets up the table for Pachall, who has been deadly effective, completing nearly 70% of his throws for 19 touchdowns against a meager 5 interceptions. WRs Josh Boyce and Skye Dawson provide a nice 1-2 punch and this offense is 8th in the nation, averaging 41.6 points per game.
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They obviously haven’t played a defense that is on the same level as Boise State. Running up and down the field against Portland State and New Mexico is nice, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to success against one of the best defenses in the country. The Broncos “D” is 5th in the nation against the pass, and 12th in total points allowed, giving up 16.8 per game.
The Horned Frogs will also be facing the most dangerous offense they have seen this year. QB Kellen Moore is throwing at almost a 75% completion rate. 29 touchdowns against only 5 picks is typical of the Broncos’ deadly-efficient quarterback. RB Doug Martin has been cooking lately, getting relief from D.J. Harper in the backfield. Pass catchers Tyler Shoemaker, Matt Miller, and Mitch Burroughs each have over 30 receptions. In total, 9 different receivers have caught touchdown passes for Boise State.
The Broncos have had moments of flatness this season. A typically winning team at the betting windows is only 4-4 ATS this season, missing the number by a combined 49 points in their 4 ATS losses. But maybe a late-surging Boise State team has a better chance at national championship consideration, as opposed to last year’s squad, which might have wasted its best football against inferior competition. Against a fringe top-25 team like TCU, this might be the week where the Broncos kick it into overdrive.
The BCS picture is still murky, but last week showed that the Boise State attrition might pay off in the end. Alabama lost and Oklahoma State barely won, with more trouble lurking ahead for these teams. Oklahoma State still has to deal with Oklahoma. LSU still has to play Arkansas. Stanford still has to play high-powered Oregon. So the picture is clear: Boise State has a decent chance if they win out and doing so in as decisive a manner as possible is the best course of action.
Scotty L’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: In order to take their form to the next level, Boise State will need to dominate a team that has been setting up for this matchup all year. For the Broncos, this is merely a time where it would be a good idea to step it up a bit. For TCU, this is somewhat of a surrogate bowl game. But this is week 11 now and one gets the sense that Boise is ready to elevate their level of their intensity with the light at the end of the tunnel now in plain view.
Look for TCU to be tough, but eventually fall by the wayside late as Boise State takes it up another level in the second half. A close game breaks open late, with Kellen Moore and Company in full bloom, with a defensive unit that answers the call, becoming better as the game wears on. I'm betting the Boise State Broncos minus the points!
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