No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (10-0) 7-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U at Wyoming Cowboys (5-5) 7-2 ATS, 5-4 O/U Saturday November 21, 2009 2:00 p.m. EST
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: TCU -31.5/Wyoming +31.5
Over/Under: 47.5
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TCU is averaging 39.2 points per game and they don’t show any signs of slowing down as they beat Utah last week 55-28. The Horned Frogs have been trashing teams all season long and making one heck of an argument for a BCS Bowl bid. The only other “mid-major” football program standing in their way is the Boise State Broncos who are also 10-0 and running for the BCS money. Wyoming will be lucky to make this game close as the Frogs are relentless on defense (allow 12 points per game) and can score in a variety of ways.
Wyoming is coming off of a win over San Diego State 30-27 but it was their first victory in four weeks. The Cowboys are had lost three consecutive games before squeaking by the Aztecs. With an offense that is only averaging 17 points per game and allowing 26.6 it will be extremely difficult to contain the Horned Frogs from running up the score. TCU will exploit every fallacy in the Cowboy’s game. It should be a lopsided contest which will only help TCU get closer to their goal of national recognition as one of college football’s elite teams.
The betting line on this game opened at Wyoming +28.5 with a total of 47.5. Most offshore casino sportsbooks are showing the Cowboys +31.5 with a few at +31 and a total of 47.5 as well. The on land casinos such as the Las Vegas Hilton and Planet Hollywood in Vegas are also showing Wyoming +31 but the total is off. Make sure you check your favorite online book for the most updated line.
The over is 20-7 in Wyoming’s last 27 games in November. The Cowboys are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home. TCU is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall.
TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has a 63 percent completion rate and has thrown for 2088 yards and 17 touchdowns with just 4 picks. The Cowboy’s QB Austin Carta-Samuels has a 59 percent completion rate with 1529 passing yards and 7 TDs to 3 interceptions.
Wyoming is 3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U at home this season, and they are 3-5 SU, 6-2 ATS, and 4-4 O/U as the dog. TCU is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and 3-1 O/U on the road this year. The Horned Frogs are also 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, and 3-4 O/U as the favored team this year.
Opponents only complete 47 percent of their passes against the TCU defense while the Cowboy’s “D” allows 63 percent which just happens to be Andy Dalton’s completion rate.
TCU has scored 40 or more points in five of their ten contests this season. The Horned frogs scored 55 points in their last two consecutive victories and the week before that they shut out UNLV 41-0.
Wyoming has not had success against challenging opponents this season, and I don’t see them giving the Horned Frogs a fight. TCU is too talented and simply playing on a higher level than any team in the Mountain West Conference.
TCU is clearly the stronger team in this matchup and the 31.5 points is warranted and they may do more damage by the time the horn sounds. Wyoming is in the middle of the MWC and they have scored 30 or more points in four of their games but they will be humbled by the TCU defense.
Wilson’s Pick: TCU 56, Wyoming 7. Luck to ya.
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