Alamo Bowl: Washington Huskies (7-5 SU 7-5 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (9-3 SU 7-4 ATS), Alamodome San Antonio, TX, 9 PM ET Thursday December 29, 2011 on ESPN/ESPN3
by Jason Green, Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Wash +9.5/BAY -9.5
Over/Under Total: 78.5
Bet the Huskies/Bears game at an online bookie that offers -105 reduced vig which will save you big money. Stop betting at -110 today! Make the switch to 5Dimes.
The Baylor Bears come into the Alamo Bowl with a full head of steam, as they not only have a Heisman winner under center, but they won their last 5 games of the season including beating the ranked teams of Oklahoma and Texas. On the other side of the coin while the Washington Huskies did win the Apple Cup game facing Washington State in their season finale they had lost their previous 3 games.
To say the Bears offense has been on fire lately is an understatement, as in their 5-game winning streak they have almost twice as many TD's (31) than punts (16). Washington had major issues on D in their last few games and their offense will likely have to light up the scoreboard to have any chance to win this game.
In their last games of the season Baylor beat Texas 48-24 and Washington bat Washington State 38-31.
Not only does UW have to deal with Griffin and a Baylor offense that ranks 6th in the nation in scoring, but since this game is being held in the Lone Star State the Bears will also enjoy somewhat of a home field advantage.
Robert Griffin III won the Heisman Trophy this season and almost passed for 4,000 yards with 36 TD and only 6 INT. The WR duo of Kendall Wright (101 rec 1,572 yards 13 TD) and Terrance Williams (53 rec 895 yards 11 TD) each averaged over 15 yards per reception this season. All 3 of these guys put up great stats this year and will only pad their numbers in facing a Washington pass defense that ranks 116th in the nation out of 120 FBS teams. Yeah, Griffin will have a HUGE game.
Tired of your Visa card not working for deposits? End that problem today by signing up at Sportsbetting where your card WILL work!
Griffin also rushed for 644 yards with 9 TD. Terrance Ganaway, who nearly rushed for 400 yards in his last 2 games, joins him in the backfield. The Bears will not only rack up the passing yards, but rushing yards as well, facing UW and their 55th ranked run defense.
When the Huskies played against stellar QB's this season in Andrew Luck from Stanford and Matt Barkley from USC they held both to under 200 passing yards, but they gave up a ton of rushing yards. That will not happen a third time against Griffin, as he will not be stopped.
For The Huskies to pull off the upset they will need a good game from QB Kevin Price and RB Chris Polk. Price set the UW record for TD's and he will have a good game since the Baylor pass defense only ranks 112th in the nation.
Polk topped 100 rushing yards in his last 2 games and he will make it 3 in this bowl game as Baylor only ranks 102nd in the nation in run defense. You better believe that they will get a big dose of Polk in this game.
UW had 23 sacks on the season and Baylor had 19 and it is key that the pass rush of both teams pressures the QB. However, Griffin is much better at avoiding the pass rush with his legs and he will avoid the sack.
Betting Trends
This season Washington has an O/U record of 6-5-1 and Baylor has an O/U record of 9-1-1.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 non-conference games.
Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points, and they have an Over record of 10-1-1 in their last 12 games facing a team with a winning record.
Jason's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This game will be a shootout, but Griffin and the Bears will come out on top since they simply have too much firepower.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
