West Virginia Mountaineers (6-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. South Florida Bulls (5-2 SU, 2-3 ATS), 8:00 p.m. EST, Friday Night Lights, October 30, 2009, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla. TV: ESPN2
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: West Virginia -3.5/South Florida +3.5
Over/Under: N/A
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After starting the season 5-0, the South Florida Bulls will try to end a two-game losing streak when they host the West Virginia Mountaineers Friday night on ESPN2.
South Florida jumped into the national picture when it upset Florida State in Tallahassee. Not only did the Bulls win that game 17-7, but they did it with a new quarterback. Matt Grothe is out for the season with a knee injury, and B.J. Daniels came in to replace Grothe in that game. Then, the Bulls followed that up with a 34-20 win at Syracuse.
But since then, the Bulls have failed to prove themselves, as they were easily defeated by Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. A win over West Virginia would be their last chance to make a stand near the top of the Big East.
Daniels has thrown for 864 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions this season, and has completed only 53.1 percent of his pass attempts. Daniels also leads the team in rushing with 415 yards and four touchdowns. He's a dual-threat quarterback who is very tough to stop.
While the key to stopping South Florida is shutting down Daniels, the key to stopping West Virginia is shutting down running back Noel Devine. The speedy 5-foot-8, 175-pound Devine has 912 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns and a 6.7 yards-per-carry average this season.
The Mountaineers can pass the ball as well. Jarrett Brown has 1,362 passing yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions. The No. 1 wide receiver for West Virginia is Jock Sanders, who has 53 catches for 514 yards and two touchdowns.
The Mountaineers are coming off a tough 28-24 win over Connecticut. It was probably the first legitimate win for them this season. They have wins over Colorado and Syracuse, but neither of those can be considered key victories. Their one loss was at Auburn when the Tigers were undefeated and nationally ranked. A win at South Florida would establish the Mountaineers as a serious contender for the Big East title.
Last year, West Virginia defeated South Florida, 13-7. There were mostly different key members of each team in that game. Devine ran for 90 yards, while Sanders had five catches for 38 yards.
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South Florida has been solid against the pass this season, allowing 182.1 yards per game. They've given up seven passing touchdowns in seven games, and they've intercepted nine passes. West Virginia is giving up 236.3 passing yards per game and they've allowed 12 passing touchdowns, but the Mountaineers do have 12 interceptions. Opponents are completing just 52.1 percent of their pass attempts against West Virginia, which is 15th best in the country.
The Mountaineers have the ninth best run defense in the country, as they are allowing just 86.3 yards per game and a 2.8 yards-per-carry average. South Florida is giving up 132.4 rushing yards per game.
West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last five games. The Mountaineers are 19-6 SU in their last 25 road games, and the total has gone over in four of their last six games. South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last five home games.
Ryno's Pick: West Virginia needs to win this game to prove it is a legit Big East contender. The Mountaineers got their first decent win over UConn. South Florida has a win at Florida State and that's really it. And that win doesn't look so great now. But the Bulls lost their last two games convincingly to Pitt and Cincinnati. West Virginia's defense has been very good this season, both against the pass and the run. The Mountaineers should be able to contain Daniels. Meanwhile, the USF defense hasn't been that good. Devine should have his way with the Bulls defense, and Brown should be able to complete some passes. The Mountaineers did well the last time they played a weekday night game on ESPN, when they won 35-24 over Colorado. South Florida did not do so well in a 34-17 Thursday night loss to Cincinnati on ESPN. Take West Virginia -3.5.
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