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Handicapping

2018 Academy Awards

90th Academy Awards Picks - Betting Odds
Date/Time: Sunday, March 4th, 2018 8:00 PM EST
Where: Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, CA
TV: ABC
By Mike M., Entertainment Handicapper, Predictem.com

With the Academy Awards right around the corner, below is a rundown of each of the nominees up for the four main acting awards along with the candidates for tops in movie and director. Odds in parentheses are provided by Bovada Sportsbook.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Odds- (-2000)
Past Nominations (1)- Best Actor, Tinker Tailor Solider Spy (2011)
Past Wins-None
Trends- The last nine times the SAG, Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice Best Actor awards all went to the same person, said actor has gone on to win the Oscar as well. Oldman has already won all three of those awards.
Random-Well known for memorable performances as villains in early 90s such as Lee Harvey Oswald (JFK), Drexel Spivey True Romance) and Stansfield (Leon: The Professional), Oldman has cemented himself as the best of the Commissioner Gordons after playing the character in the recent run of Dark Knight Batman movies.
Up Next-Mary, a supernatural thriller about a family who buys a boat that turns out to have spooky secrets. Written by Anthony Jaswinski, who has already found success on the open water with his recent hit The Shallows
Other movies to consider- Both True Romance and Leon are well worth the watch and two of the better movies of their decade.

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Betting Odds- (+900)
Past Nominations-None
Past Wins-None
Trends- Chalamet is the third youngest Best Actor nominee in Academy Award history (22 years old)
Random-Is part of the cast of two movies nominated for Best Picture, Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird.
Up Next- Beautiful Boy, as the title role character about a son going through meth addiction as seen through the eyes of his father, played by Steve Carell.
Other movies/shows to watch-Any episode or scene of the TV show Homeland that doesn’t involve Chalamet or Morgan Saylor, who played the lead characters’ daughter and poisoned nearly every scene she was in with her whiny terribleness, with the absolute worst being the season where she interacted with Chalamet. This sort of show-draining daughter dynamic can also be seen in Ray Donovan and to a lesser extent The Americans, though it was originally made famous by The Simpsons and any Lisa-centric episode.

Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
Wagering Odds- (+1500),
Past Nominations (5): Best Actor-My Left Foot (1989), Best Actor-In the Name of the Father (1993), Best Actor-Gangs of New York (2002), Best Actor-There Will Be Blood (2007), Best Actor-Lincoln (2012)
Past Wins (3): Best Actor-My Left Foot (1989), Best Actor-There Will Be Blood (2007), Best Actor-Lincoln (2012)
Trends-Since 1989 Day-Lewis has been in 14 movies and received Best Actor Oscar or Golden Globe nominations for over half of them (8).
Random-Has won more Oscars for Best Actor (3) than any other actor in history and only actress Katherine Hepburn has won more for a performance in a lead role with four total.
Up Next-Announced in June of 2017 that was retiring from acting.

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Odds- (+1800)
Past Nominations- None
Past Wins- None
Trends- Both of the American movies Kaluuya has been apart have been of, Get Out and Sicario, were nominated for at least three Oscars a piece.
Random- Grew up in England, where he began his career doing improv comedy.
Up Next- Widows along with Liam Neeson, Colin Farrell, Robert Duvall and last years’ winner for Best Supporting Actress, Viola Davis.
Other movies/TV shows to watch- Black Mirror (TV), Sicario.

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel
Gambling Odds- (+3000)
Past Nominations (8): Best Supporting Actor- Cry Freedom (1987), Best Supporting Actor- Glory (1989), Best Actor-Malcolm X (1992), Best Actor-The Hurricane (1999), Best Actor-Training Day (2001), Best Actor-Flight (2012), Best Actor-Fences (2016)
Past Wins (2): Best Supporting Actor-Glory (1989), Best Actor-Training Day (2001)
Trends- Considering his notable career and the ability to turn what would usually be an ok movie into an entertaining one, the fact that Washington has only won two Academy Awards including just one in the past 28 years seems odd.

Random- Turned down the role of Mills in the movie Se7en that eventually went to Brad Pitt.
Up Next- The Equalizer 2, sequel to the successful remake that came out in 2014 and ended up making just under 200 million dollars worldwide, which was 3.5 times more than it’s budget.
Other movies/TV shows to watch- Fallen, Remember the Titans, Man on Fire.

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BEST ACTRESS

Frances McDormand, Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Odds- (-600)
Past Nominations (4): Best Supporting Actress-Mississippi Burning (1988), Best Actress-Fargo (1996), Best Supporting Actress- Almost Famous (2000), Best Supporting Actress-North Country (2005)
Past Wins (1)- Best Actress, Fargo (1996)
Trends-The same performer has won the SAG and Golden Globe award for Best Actress for the past five straight years, and in all five of those they also went on to win the Academy Award as well. McDormand has already won the SAG and Golden Globe awards for Best Actress.
Random-Only actress of six to be nominated for a movie directed by their spouse to go on to win the award after taking home the prize for Fargo, which was helmed by her husband Joel Coen.
Up Next- Isle of Dogs, an animated film set in Japan written and directed by Wes Anderson.
Other movies to watch-Raising Arizona (1987), Primal Fear (1996), Almost Famous (2000).
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Odds- (+600)
Past Nominations (2): Best Supporting Actress-Atonement (2007), Best Actress-Brooklyn (2015)
Past Wins-None
Trends-One of the winners of the Golden Globe for Best Actress has gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Actress the last 15 years in a row. Ronan won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy back in early January.
Random-12th youngest nominee in Oscar history when she was up for Best Supporting Actress for Atonement at the age of 13 years old.
Up Next- Mary Queen of Scots along with Best Actress nominee Margot Robbie and The Seagull with Emmy/Golden Globe winner for Best Actress in a TV show Elisabeth Moss.
Other movie to watch-Hanna (2011)-Ronan dominates as a girl raised by her father to become an assassin.

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Odds- (+700)
Past Nominations (1): Best Supporting Actress-Blue Jasmine (2013)
Past Wins-None
Random-First movie role was uncredited as a villager in the worst of the Star Wars movies, The Phantom Menace
Up Next- Godzilla: King of Monsters alongside the lead characters of two of the best TV show dramas since the turn of the century, Kyle Chandler of Friday Night Lights and Millie Bobby Brown from Stranger Things.
Other movie to watch-Admittedly haven’t seen most of the movies on her list, but Layer Cake (2004) certainly stands out as one worth viewing and costars a pre-James Bond Daniel Craig.

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Odds- (+2000)
Past Nominations-None
Past Wins-None
Trends-First known former Subway Sandwich Artist to get earn an Oscar, Golden Globe and SAG award nomination in the same year.
Random-Tattooed nearly every member of the Suicide Squad cast, all getting the same ‘SKWAD’ design done.
Up Next-Rumored to be part of the next Quentin Tarantino movie alongside Wolf of Wall Street star Leonardo Dicaprio. Also listed for four different films as Harley Quinn, with the apparent studio strategy to go all in on spinoffs of a underwhelming, disappointing picture which in this case was Suicide Squad.

Meryl Strep, The Post
Odds- (+3300)
Past Nominations (20)-
Best Supporting Actress (4): The Deer Hunter (1978), Kramer vs. Kramer (1979), Adaptation (2002), Into the Woods (2014)
Best Actress (16): The French Lieutentant’s Woman (1981), Sophie’s Choice (1982), Silkwood (1983), Out of Africa (1984), Ironweed (1987), Evil Angels (1988), Postcards from the Edge (1990), The Bridges of Madison County (1995), One True Thing (1988), Music of the Heart (1999), The Devil Wears Prada (2006), Doubt (2008), Julie & Julia (2009), The Iron Lady (2011), August: Osage County (2013), Florence Foster Jenkins (2016)
Past Wins (3)’ Best Supporting Actress-Kramer vs. Kramer (1979), Best Actress-Sophie’s Choice (1983), Best Actress-The Iron Lady (2011)
Trends- Has most nominations in Academy Award history with 21.
Random-Apparent lover of hypocriphal irony after speaking out for women’s rights but at same time having been an ardent supporter of rapists Harvey Weinstein and Roman Polanski.
Up Next- Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and Mary Poppins Returns.
Other movies to consider- Fantastic Mr. Fox

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Odds- (-400)
Past Nominations-None
Past Wins-None
Trends-Has been nominated for or won 41 different awards for his performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Random- Rockwell and Woody Harrelson’s are the first actors to be nominated in the Supporting category from the same movie since both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kinglsey were up for the awards for 1991’s Bugsy.
Up Next-Backseat as George W. Bush in a movie written and directed by Adam McKay (Step Brothers, Anchorman, The Big Short) about the life of Dick Cheney, with Christian Bale playing the title character and also starring Amy Adams, Steve Carell and Bill Pullman.
Other movies to consider- Seven Psychopaths, The Way Way Back and any episode of the show Drunk History, which Rockwell once appeared in as Bugsy Siegel.
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Odds- (+350)
Past Nominations (2): Best Supporting Actor-Platoon (1986), Best Supporting Actor-Shadow of the Vampire (2001)
Past Wins-None
Random-In three movies between 1986 and 1989 that were nominated for Best Picture, Mississippi Burning, Born on the Fourth of July and Platoon, with the latter the only one to go on to win the award.
Random Part 2-In a six month span between 1996 & 1997, Dafoe was part of the cast of a one movie that won the award for Best Picture (The English Patient) and another nominated for the Golden Raspberry (Speed 2), which is given each annually to worst film of the year.
Up Next-Aquaman, which will be the second time Dafoe has been in a movie based upon a super hero after starring as the Green Goblin the Spiderman series. Though possibly you could call it his third, as he was also in the 2014 surprise hit John Wick.
Other movies to consider-Clear and Present Danger, Boondock Saints, American Psycho, Fantastic Mr. Fox.

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Odds- (+1000)
Past Nominations (1)- Best Actor, The Visitor (2007)
Past Wins- None
Trends- Has worked various times with the Farrelly Brothers, with roles in There’s Something About Mary, Outside Providence, Me, Myself & Irene, Say It Isn’t So and Hall Pass.
Random- Before acting worked as a truck driver with John C. Reilly’s father, who he later acted alongside in my favorite movie ever, Step Brothers.
Up Next- Season 3 of the Epix televsion show ‘Berlin Station’.
Other movies to consider- Little Nikita, The Cabin in the Woods. Definitely not Eddie, starring Whoopi Goldberg as the coach of the New York Knicks.

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Odds- (+1500)
Past Nominations (2); Best Supporting Actor-The Last Station (2009), Best Supporting Actor-The Beginners (2010)
Past Wins- Best Supporting Actor, The Beginners (2010)
Trends- Oldest winner ever for Oscar at 82 for his work in The Beginners and is now the oldest Oscar nominee at 88 for All the Money in the World.
Random- Ended up in The Beginners after being cast to reshoot scenes that had been previously done with Kevin Spacey after it was discovered that Spacey is a morally bankrupt pile of garbage.
Up Next- Boundaries alongside Vera Farmiga, Bobby Carnavale and Kristen Schall as a father who is kicked out of his nursing home and than drives cross country with his estranged daughter and her son.
Other movies to consider- Dragnet, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Odds- (+3300)
Past Nominations (2)- Best Actor, The People Vs. Larry Flynt (1996), Best Supporting Actor, The Messenger (2009)
Past Wins- None
Trends- Looking to become the first member from the cast of Cheers to go on to win an Academy Award.
Random- Both Harrelson and Wesley Snipes began their cinematic career in the football movie Wildcats which starred Goldie Hawn. Six years later Harrelson and Snipes would team up again in White Men Can’t Jump followed again by Money Train in 1995.
Up Next- Solo: A Star Wars Story as Tobias Beckett, though he will be hard pressed to match the greatness of his fellow monikered Tobias Funke from Arrested Development.
Other movies to consider- Doc Hollywood, Kingpin, Semi-Pro, Zombieland.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Odds- (-400)
Past Nominations- None
Past Wins- None
Trends- The last eight years the SAG and Critic’s Choice awards for Best Supporting Actress have gone to the same actress and in all eight instances the same person went on to win the Oscar for the same award. Janney has already won both the SAG and Critic’s Choice awards this year for her performance in I, Tonya.
Random- in 2014 Janney won two Emmy’s for her roles in Mom (Supporting Actress) and Masters of Sex (Guest Actress in a Drama Series), becoming the first person to win multiple awards for different shows in the same year since her West Wing co-starStockard Channing pulled off the same in 2002.
Up Next- Season six of Mom alongside Anna Faris.
Other movies to consider- The Way Way Back, Bad Words, Spy.

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Odds- (+350)
Past Nominations- None
Past Wins- None
Trends- This is the first Oscar nomination for Metcalf after having been nominated for ten Emmy Awards (3 wins) and four Tony awards (1 win)
Random- Grew up just a couple hours way from the setting of one of her first big movies, the 80s classic Uncle Buck.
Up Next- The reboot of the 80s TV show Roseanne followed by Toy Story 4 which hits theaters in 2019.
Other movies/TV shows to consider- Uncle Buck, Bulworth, Norm (TV)

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Odds- (+1200)
Past Nominations- None
Past Wins- None
Trends- With Blige’s nomination for Best Supporting Actress, Mudbound director Dee Rees became the first African-American woman to direct a film that an actor or actress was nominated for an Oscar.
Random- Is also nominated for Best Original song along with Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson for the tune ‘Mighty River’.
Up Next- The animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes which stars Emily Blunt, James McAvoy and Johnny Depp as the title character.
Other movies/TV shows to consider (soundtrack)- Who’s the Man?, Undercover Brother, 8 Mile, The Wire.

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Odds- (+2000)
Past Nominations (2): Best Supporting Actress-The Help (2011), Best Supporting Actress-Hidden Figures (2016)
Past Wins (1)- Best Supporting Actress, The Help (2011)
Trends- Spencer is one of seven African-American actresses to have won an Academy Award for Best Actress or Supporting Actress and with her now third nomination tied Viola Davis for the most ever by an African-American actress in Oscar history.
Random- Of Spencer’s 124 acting credits, 50 are for television including four in 1999 on Brimstone, Chicago Hope, Roswell, The X-Files in which she played a nurse in each.
Up Next- Co-starring in Luce alongside Naomi Watts and Tim Roth.
Other movies to consider- A Time to Kill, Being John Malkovich, Drag Me to Hell,Snowpiercer.

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Odds- (+2000)
Past Nominations- None
Past Wins- None
Random- Won nine different Best Supporting actress awards for her performance in 2010’s Another Year, from the National Board of Review award in the United States to the London Critics award.
Up Next- The second season of the 18th century period piece Harlots on Hulu.
Other movies to consider- I have not seen any movies or TV shows that Manville has been in previously. The TV show Wings is on her resume, but it was unfortunately not the version that took place in Nantucket about brothers Joe and Brian who owned their own small airline and including memorable side characters Roy, Crystal, Fay along with breakout roles for Thomas Haden Church as Lowell and Tony Shalhoub as Antonio Scarpacci.

BEST DIRECTOR

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Odds- (-500)
Past Nominations (1)- Best Original Screenplay, El laberinto del fauno (2006)
Past Wins- None
Trends- Looking to become the 7th foreign filmmaker to win Best Director in the past eight years.
Random- Moved himself and his family out of his home country of Mexico after his father was kidnapped and held for ransom.
Up Next- Pinocchio, Nightmare Alley and an untitled documentary with fellow director and my namesake Michael Mann.
Other movies to consider- Many to choose from but Pan’s Labyrinth stands out the most and is well worth your time.

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Odds- (+333)
Past Nominations (3): Best Screenplay-Memento (2000), Best Original Screenplay-Inception (2011), Best Picture-Inception (2011).
Past Wins- None
Trends- Of Nolan’s last nine movies directed, seven have received at least one Oscar nomination.
Random- Gained widespread notoriety for Memento, which was just his second film ever to direct and was based upon a short story screenplay written by his brother Jonathan.
Up Next- Nothing announced though rumored to be part of the next James Bond movie, which would be Daniel Craig’s last in the series.
Other movies to consider- Insomnia, The Prestige, The Dark Knight

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Odds- (+900)
Past Nominations- None
Past Wins- None
Trends- Became the 5th woman ever to be nominated for Best Director, joining Lina Wertmuller (Seven Beauties), Jane Campion (The Piano), Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation) and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), with Bigelow the only one to eventually end up winning the award.
Random- Lady Bird is just the second movie Gerwig has ever directed and the first since Night and Weekends in 2008.
Up Next- Voicing a role in Wes Anderson’s animated Isle of Dogs and starring with John Turturro in Bergman Island.

Jordan Peele, Get Out
Odds- (+3300)
Past Nominations- None
Past Wins- None
Trends- Peele is the fifth African-American director to earn a Best Director nomination along with John Singleton, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins.
Random- Get Out was Peele’s directorial debut and earned three nominations including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.
Random- His first appearance as an actor came in Weird Al Yankovic’s music video for White & Nerdy.
Up Next- Starring in the horror movie Abruptio alongside James Marsters.
Other movies to consider-Wet Hot American Summer: First Day of Camp, Keanu.

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Odds- (+7500)
Past Nominations: Best Screenplay-Boogie Nights (1997), Best Screenplay-Magnolia (1999), Best Directing/Adapted Screenplay/Movie-There Will Be Blood (2007), Best Adapted Screenplay-Inherent Vice (2014).
Past Wins- None
Trends- Of Anderson’s 37 directorial credits only eight are for movies, half of which earned Oscar nominations.
Random- Anderson’s first credit is for the 32 minute short called The Dirk Diggler Story, which came out in 1988 and was essentially a mini version of Boogie Nights which would be released nine years later.
Up Next- Nothing on tap.
Other movies to consider- Punch Drunk Love.

BEST PICTURE

The Shape of Water
Odds- (-150)
Plot in five words or less - Janitor/Sea Creature love story.
Trends- Leads all movies with 13 nominations total, which is just one short of the all time record held by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Odds- (+175)
Plot in five words or less - Angry mother seeks justice.
Trends- Only four movies have ever won Best Picture in which their directors were not nominated for Best Director. Three Billboards director Martin McDonagh did not receive a nomination in the category.

Lady Bird
Odds- (+800)
Plot in five words or less - Quirky seventeener in Sacramento.
Trends-From 1928 to 2010, the movie nominated for Best Picture with the highest Rotten Tomatoes score went on to win the award only twice in that 83 year span. Over the past six years the highest rated movie has taken home the trophy three times. Lady Bird had the highest rating of any movie, just edging out Get Out by percentage points as both had a mark of 99%.

Dunkirk
Odds- (+3300)
Plot in five words or less - World War 2 Nolan Style.
Trends- The Hurt Locker in only war related movie of the past 22 years to win Best Picture. Sixteen in the genre have won in total, beginning with Wings in 1927.

Get Out
Odds- (+2500)
Plot in five words or less - Fifty shades of terrifying white.
Trends-Would be my pick for Best Picture, pretty much eliminating any chance of it winning.

The Post
Odds- (+5000)
Plot in five words or less - Press vs. Government before fake news.
Trends- Looking to make it two out three years that a newspaper themed movie wins Best Picture after Spotlight won in 2015.

Call Me By Your Name
Odds- (+6000)
Plot in five words or less- 80s Italian Love Story
Trends- Looking to become the seventh movie ever to win the Academy Award for Best Picture with five words in the title, with the others being- The Life Emile Zola (1937), How Green Was My Valley (1941), The Greatest Show on Earth (1952), A Man for All Seasons (1966), The Silence of the Lambs (1991), No Country For Old Men (2007).

Darkest Hour
Odds- (+8500)
Plot in five words or less- Mind Games: Churchill vs. Hitler.
Trends- Has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of any of the nominated movies at 86%.

Phanton Thread
Odds- (+10000)
Plot in five words or less - Uptight dressmaker falls in love.
Trends- Looking to become the first movie with a sewing theme to ever take home Best Picture.

For those involved in Oscar pools, below is a list of all the awards presented and a predicted winner for each:

For those looking to spice up your viewing of this year's awards, you can bet on every category using your credit card at one of the web's oldest and most trusted betting sites: Bovada Sportsbook!

Best Actor – Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

Best Actress – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Call Me By Your Name

Best Animated Feature Film –Coco.

Best Animated Short Film –Dear Basketball

Best Cinematography – Blade Runner 2049

Best Costume Design – Phantom Thread

Best Director – Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best Documentary Feature –Faces Places

Best Documentary Short – Edith+Eddie

Best Film Editing – Dunkirk

Best Foreign Language Film – A Fantastic Woman

Best Live Action Short Film – DeKalb Elementary

Best Makeup – Darkest Hour

Best Original Score – Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water

Best Original Screenplay – Lady Bird

Best Original Song – Remember Me, Coco

Best Picture – The Shape of Water

Best Production Design – The Shape of Water

Best Sound Editing – Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing – Dunkirk

Best Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress – Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Best Visual Effects –War for the Planet of the Apes

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